JEFF SIEGEL’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW – DEL MAR – 8/30/24
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Del Mar 4th Race – Post: PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 1-Tequilaandtherapy.
Other Contenders: 9-Grazen Gator.
Forecast: With three sprint starts on her resume, Tequilaandtherapy stretches out for the first time and should use her ideal rail post position to good advantage in this maiden grass miler for juvenile fillies. And attractive, lengthy filly with enough early speed to be on or near the lead, she looks like a route type, retains A. Fresu, and catches a modest field without a whole lot of speed signed on. Additionally, she shows a gradually improving pattern for trainer D. O’Neill and if she continues to inch forward she can handle this California-bred group while offering reasonably wagering value at or near her morning line of 7/2.
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Del Mar 7th race – Post: 6:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 3-Sanger.
Other Contenders: 6-Rhytem On Stage; 8-Belmont Bill.
Forecast: This grass grab bag for starter allowance sprinters has several possibilities to choose from. Let’s try Sanger, a route-to-sprint, dirt-to-turf play making his second start off a layoff. Despite being eased in a main track miler last time out, he remains protected in a sign of confidence by trainer C. Gaines, and in a five furlong dash that contains several suspect front running types, the eventual winner may emerge from among the second flight runners and our top pick can fit that bill perfectly. The son of Desert Code might be most effective if held up early and allowed to blast home and given that type ride he could prove quite dangerous from the furlong pole to the wire. There’s good wagering value here at 5-1 on the morning line both in the win pool and in the various exotics.
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JEFF SIEGEL’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW – SARATOGA – 8/30/24
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Saratoga 6th Race – Post: 3:20 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 3-Take Me to Church (Ire).
Other Contenders: 5-The Big Torpedo.
Forecast: Take Me to Church (Ire) makes his U.S. debut in this year’s edition of the Saranac S.-G3 and based on his European form should be a strong fit at this level on this circuit. Now in the B. Cox barn, the son of Churchill set the pace and remained a factor until the final furlong before weakening to wind up fifth in the Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh in his most recent start in late May. He has trained quite well since arriving at Saratoga to indicate he’s fit and ready to reproduce his best Irish form and if allowed to be the controlling speed he could take this field a very long way. Blinkers go on for the first time, so we suspect his typical front running tactics will be utilized. At 7/2 on the morning line, we’ll play him in the win pool and in the various exotics.
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Saratoga 12th race – Post: 6:50 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 2-New York Scrappy.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: New York Scrappy returns to grass for the first time since his debut and we suspect he’ll be happy to make the switch. The son of Solomini closed with interest to be third after a slow start in his first career outing at the Big A in June, but after a dirt track effort followed by an off-the-turfer in the slop, the M. Casse-trained gelding should show his best stuff with the return to the sod in his first try around turns and his first under top rider I. Ortiz, Jr. Ideally drawn in the two hole in this inner course affair, he’ll have every chance to secure a favorable inside, pace pressing position. In a weak field comprised of New York bred older horses, he’ll offer value at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it.
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