Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Saratoga – 8/8/24
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga 2nd Race – Post: 1:44 ET. Degree of confidence: A
Top Selection: 3-Legitimize.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: In his debut last winter at Tampa Bay Downs, the late-to-the-party Legitimize ran far too good to lose in a fast, highly rated two turn grass affair for older maidens. In that race, the 4-year-old gelding stalked a blazing pace, took command into the lane, but after battling back gamely when challenged inside the furlong pole just failed to stay while remaining well clear of the rest. His 80 Beyer speed figure is tops in this field. and with a series of healthy recent workouts to have him fit and ready the son of Justify should return as least as well and perhaps even better following his nearly six month vacation. Today’s pace projection is another major positive for him, as the T. Hamm-trained gelding seems certain to inherit the role as the controlling speed. It all adds up to a confident win play and rolling exotic single at 3-1 on the morning line.
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Saratoga 6th race – Post: 4:02 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 8-And One More Time.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Here’s a good gambling opportunity at 6-1 on the morning line in a wide open turf sprint for juvenile fillies. And One More Time was given a very easy run in her debut when finishing a non-threatening seventh as the favorite in a short main track sprint at Churchill Downs in late June but actually looked quite good galloping out in front of the field around the clubhouse turn. Today, with an extra furlong to work with, she’ll get serious. The daughter of Omaha Beach was smooth as silk when best in a team drill on grass around dogs July 12, so we suspect the switch to turf will move up considerably in a race that on paper appears to be below average. She should have every chance to display her best stuff under one of the barn’s “go-to” riders, J. Ortiz, so we’re expecting considerable improvement as a strong play in the win pool and in the various exotics.
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Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Del Mar – 8/8/24
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
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Del Mar 5th Race – Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 7-Nell’s Legacy
Other Contenders: 1-Orange Thunder.
Forecast: Nell’s Legacy has trained like a nice sort for her racing debut, and while we can’t say she’s bred for turf the daughter of Ghostzapper breezed like a serious prospect over the synthetic surface the OBS April sale in :10 flat without undue pressure and then brought $325,000 through the ring. She’s eligible for California-bred races, so this is a much easier group that she would normally see in straight maiden company. She’s done all of her preparatory work at Los Alamitos, so we haven’t seen her on video since the sale, but her workout times should have her more than fit enough. For those playing exactas and trifectas, be sure to consider Orange Thunder on your ticket. She’s a good mover with some quality, though probably not a blazingly quick type. If she can avoid trouble from the rail, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride may have a say in the matter.
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Del Mar 6th race – Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 3-Bart Sip Some.
Other Contenders: ; 2-Be Punctual.
Forecast: Bart Sip Some outran his 23-1 odds in his debut at Los Alamitos in late June when pressing a hot pace and then staying on as best he could to be third in a fairly strong sprint for the level. The son of Stay Thirsty stretches out following that one lone outing (yes, we’d prefer two) but projects to be the controlling speed, and if he can establish the running without undue pressure the R. Baltas-trained sophomore might get very brave. Speed has done better than usual two-turning over this main track so far this meeting, so we’ll play him at or near his morning line of 4-1 in what appears to be a below standard race for maiden special weight California-bred runners.
