Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
Saturday, July 20, 2024
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Saratoga 1st Race – Post: 12:35 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 7-Hands of Time
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Several highly regarded juveniles are debuting in this middle distance turf router, many of them with pedigrees and/or work patterns for top outfits that suggest this event is quite contentious. You can spread the race and hope to find a price – certainly a possibility with so many question marks in the field – or you can boil it down to a single and hope to be right. We’ve seen Hands of Time in the morning a few times and he absolutely trains like a runner. A strong, powerful son of Liam’s Map blessed with speed, the C. Clement-trained colt had J. Rosario up for his most recent grass drill, a breezing half mile spin around dogs when best of a team and doing it easily to appear plenty fit and ready. Yes, he’s bred primarily for dirt but clearly gets over the sod in good order, so in a wide open grab bag there’s a reasonable gamble available at or near his morning line of 6-1.
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Saratoga 9th Race – Post 5:35 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 6-Cash Equity.
Other Contenders: 3-Belouni (Fr); 9-Steady On.
Forecast: Let’s take a shot with a bit of a price in this third level allowance turf router for older runners. Cash Equity likes to settle early and blast home late and if he can get sufficient help up front he could produce a winning late kick. From the hot S. Joseph, Jr. barn, the veteran French-bred gelding always tries hard (first or second in 12 of 27 career starts) and has run consistently well since being claimed for $80,000 by his present connections last fall in California. He’s been a close runner-up in four of his last five starts while running winning races in each, so perhaps he’s overdue for some luck. At 8-1 on the morning line (likely lower after scratches) he represents a good gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Belouni has rising numbers and improving form, so we’ll include him on a backup ticket while Steady On makes his second start off a long layoff, seems certain to be fitter and tighter, and has a chance to at least get a piece of it.
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Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
Saturday, July 20, 2024
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Del Mar 2nd Race – Post: 2:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 4-J B Strikes Back
Other Contenders: none
Forecast: J B Strikes Back takes a logical class drop to the bottom rung maiden claiming ranks after a pair of non-threatening turf sprints and this stretch out in trip and switch to the main track could propel him to a diploma-earning performance. The son of Goldencents has trained quite well of late (check out his drills at xbtv.com) and seems likely to produce a significant forward move against this modest gang. Additionally, he’s a first time gelding with speed that could separate him from the pack, and in a race lacking in early zip the D. O’Neill-trained sophomore could very well inherit the roll as the controlling speed. At 5/2 on the morning like we’ll make him a strong play in the win pool and a major push in the various exotics.
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Del Mar 3rd Race – Post: 3:04 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 4-Nesso’s Lastharrrah.
Other Contenders: 12-Anmer Hall.
Forecast: Nesso’s Lastharrah moves into the first level allowance ranks after a pair of impressive starter allowance turf sprint wins, most recently with a career top 90 Beyer figure at Santa Anita in mid-June. The rapidly developing sophomore colt can be effective on the lead or from a pace stalking position, so jockey E. Maldonado can play the break and choose his strategy. Though tackling tougher today, the son of Sharp Azteca doesn’t really need another forward move to extend his winning streak to three, but we’ll be surprised if he doesn’t produce one, nonetheless. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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Del Mar 10th Race – Post: 6:44 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 3-Thorne House
Other Contenders: 1-Yellow Brick; 6-Money Run.
Forecast: Thorne House is tough on any surface but probably prefers dirt, and he’s a perfect (2-for-2) over the Del Mar main track. He ran a winning race in defeat after breaking against the bit and losing early position in his recent comeback over the Santa Anita lawn and after a series of sharp works in the interim the son of Clubhouse Ride should be primed for a career top performance in this extended sprint for first level allowance runners. With much in his favor, he’s a win wager and strong play in the various rolling exotics. If you’d prefer to have backups, consider Yellow Brick and Money Run. The former has been routing most of his career, but his best race (and highest number) came sprinting and that’s what we think he prefers to do. The latter is a first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller and is seeking valuable ship-and-win money after trouncing a field of $40,000 sellers at Churchill Downs with a number that makes him a fit on this circuit.
