Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
Friday Pick-6 Analysis/Wagering Strategies (races 4-9)
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Fourth Race – Post: 2:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Main Ticket: 6-A Toast to Lanie; 7-Uffda
Backups: 1-Shop Till You Drop.
Forecast: A Toast for Lanie flashed sharp speed to establish the pace, stayed on nicely through the lane but was simply second best in a similar affair at Del Mar in August. Freshened and with a steady, healthy work tab to tick her over nicely for this starter optional sprint for fillies the mares, the J. Mullins-trained daughter of Stay Thirsty improved her Beyer figure by 13 points off her maiden claiming debut win, and with another forward move today should be capable of handling this assignment. Uffda shows many positive factors in her chart. She lands the cozy outside post, exits a couple of tougher allowance races, shortens to a sprint, and returns to dirt, the surface she graduated over three runs back at Los Alamitos. Also, she’s highly competitive on numbers compared with our pick and is likely to offer better value on the tote. Shop Till You Drop can be tossed in as a backup. She’s slower on figures than the main ticket players but appears to be a progressive sort and goes for the always powerful J. Hernandez/R. Baltas team. At the very least she can be reasonable competitive.
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Fifth Race – Post: 3:00 PT. Degree of confidence: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Its a Cinch; 4-Bazooka Charlie; 9-No Poking Around
Backups: none.
Forecast: Here’s a “must spread” affair for state-bred maiden juveniles sprinting on turf. We’ll go three-deep but if you can afford to include a few more, go right ahead. Its a Cinch ran okay over this course and distance in a similar affair earlier this month, flashing good speed to lead the way into the lane before giving way grudgingly to wind up third in a better than average race for the level. With only a small forward move, he could stick it out the entire trip today. Bazooka Charlie is a first timer who has been prepared at Los Alamitos out of view from the xbtv.com camera crew. The workout times look fairly decent, so if we take them at face value the son of Grazen should be a solid fit. No Poking Around is bred for turf (Sir Prancealot) and appeared to be going well in a recent breeze that was hardly visible in the dark. The barn has poor stats with first timer starters but in an open fray he’s worth including on your ticket.
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Sixth Race – Post: 3:30 PT. Degree of confidence: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Just Deal
Backups: 7-Glorious Oscar; 4-Cardinal Spirit
Forecast: We know nothing specific about Just Deal – we haven’t seen him breeze because he’s been stabled at Los Alamitos – but in a bottom-rung maiden claimer for juveniles how good does he have to be? Purchased as a weanling for $85,000 and finally making it to the post almost two years later for $32,000, he’s obviously not well thought of by the B. Baffert barn, but the works look okay on paper, and top rider J. Hernandez takes the mount, so we’re expecting that he’ll be good enough to outrun this group at a no-value price. Glorious Oscar was beaten a mile in his debut at Del Mar, but he did flash a bit of early speed facing tougher and has since been gelded, so there’s hope. Prior to his debut, the son of Oscar Performance trained like he had a bit of talent; hopefully he can show some of it today. He’ll be on a backup ticket, as will Cardinal Spirit, slow on numbers but a runner-up at this level at Del Mar and likely to be part of the early pace, at the very least.
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Seventh Race – Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Main Ticket: 8-Kelly’s Out (Ire)
Backups: 1-Bottle Rocket (Fr); 3-Cameron Slough.
Forecast: We’re not crazy about the extreme outside draw in the local doglegged 10 furlong turf routes, but if Kelly’s Our (Ire) runs as well today as she did when beating restricted $32,000 foes at Del Mar last time out for her prior connections she should be able to repeat on the raise for new trainer K. Bainum, though that trainer has just middling stats with the first-off-the-claim angle. Let’s hope the Irish-bred import can take back, drop over, and get cover for the first mile or so and then find room and quicken like she did last time. She’ll be the main push on our key ticket, but backup players may want to protect with Bottle Rocket (Fr.) and Cameron Slough. The former is favorably drawn, and although a bit one paced she’ll certain enjoy today’s extra quarter mile. The latter beat little in a starter $50,000 affair at Del Mar, but she did it the right way and earned a number that gives her a look.
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Eighth Race – Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Main Ticket: 2-Naida; 9-Safa
Backups: 7-Neezer Dalton; 8-Mirinda.
Forecast: Naida launches a comeback and has trained like she’s fit and ready for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. She was game in her debut victory last year at Del Mar in a fairly decent maiden state-bred dash, and our assumption is she returns bigger, faster, and likely better thanks to an additional year of maturity. With J. Hernandez taking the call, the daughter of He Be Fire N Ice has the look of a live item. Safa is a seasoned daughter of Grazen who has never been worse than second in four career starts over the Santa Anita main track. She lacks gate quickness and will need to save some ground from her outside draw, but on pure figures she’s strictly the one to beat. Neezer Dalton can be tossed in as a backup; her numbers have been all over the map but she should at least hit the board, while Mirinda continues to looks sensational in the morning, but after a jaw dropping debut win 13 months ago the daughter of Mitole can’t seem to perform under pressure in the afternoon. The talent is there, or at least it used to be.
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Ninth Race – Post: 5:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Pondicherry; 10-Certitude
Backups: 8-Flight to Quality.
Forecast: Pondicherry is an intriguing first timer from the D. Blacker barn. We’ve seen her workout videos and she actually doesn’t appear to be half bad. With Bernstein on the bottom, she should handle grass and she moves like a decent athlete capable of winning against this group at what should be a decent price. Certitude is back sprinting and is likely to improve after almost a three month freshening and a disappointing run as the favorite over a mile at Del Mar. She was a maiden tackling winners that day but was bet down to favoritism due to the field’s lack of depth. She can win, but certainly doesn’t have to. Flight to Quality, away since last December, returns with Lasix, shows up in a seller, and could be a better type this time around. She’s worth including in a secondary role.
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