April 28, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Katerini
Backups/savers: 4-Travel Smart
Forecast: Katerini returns to sprinting and drops to a realistic spot in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming extended grass dash for fillies and mares. A repeat of her fast maiden claiming score over the local lawn three races back would be good enough to win, especially with a projected pace stalking trip that she should enjoy. We like her on top but will also include in our rolling exotics Travel Smart , waiver protected in her first start since last July for a barn that has solid stats with comebackers and with good previous form over the Santa Anita turf course.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Lulu Lemon Drop; 6-Side By Side
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This maiden optional claiming main track sprint for older fillies and mares came up unusually soft. Lulu Lemon Drop has had a couple of runs facing much stronger open maiden competition on grass and should find this group well within her capabilities. She displayed excellent speed before weakening in her debut in a hot race last month and then finished an even sixth after a slow start in her most recent outing in another fast affair that produced a better than par speed figure for this level. If she can duplicate that form on dirt, the Peter Miller-trained sophomore filly should be able to handle this assignment under top jockey Juan Hernandez. Side By Side is another returning to dirt and dropping in class, and if she can run back to her best race last summer at Del Mar (second in a maiden $50,000 affair) she’ll be a major contender throughout. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to Lulu Lemon Drop.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Meckleburg
Backups/savers: 2-Hudson Ridge
Forecast: Mecklenburg surely will inherit the role as the controlling speed from his inside post in this turf miler for $40,000 claiming older horses, and at this level following a significant drop in class the Irish-bred gelding should be hard to catch. He’s won over this course and distance at this level in the past, so the Jeff Mullins-trained veteran seems the solid pick. Hudson Ridge was once a decent prospect but has been winless since June of 2021, so this drop into a seller is warranted and, in fact, long overdue. On pure numbers he’s a fit, and both of his career victories were accomplished over the local lawn, but he’s always been a one-paced grinder and not one to trust. We’ll toss him on a ticket or two as a backup, while preferring Mecklenburg on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Sonofinch; 1-Divine Rascal
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Away since last June and plummeting to the $16,000 level in his start for a tag, Sonofafinch must have issues, but if he shows up with anything close to his best the lightly raced gelding should outrun this modest group. This will be his first try on conventional dirt but there shouldn’t be any reason why the Jonathan Wong-trained Bay area shipper won’t handle the surface. The work tab, while not flashy, should have him plenty fit for a stable that hits a respectable 18% with returnees, and last year he came off a similar layoff to win, so we know he can fire fresh. Divine Rascal projects to display good speed from his rail post and is a “must use” on your ticket based on his solid runner-up effort in a similar spot two runs back. The Jorge Periban-trained gelding was pitched too high in his first start off the claim last time out but seems likely to return to good form today. Preference on top goes to Sonofafinch but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Grand Tiger; 9-Barely Functional
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: With eight of the 10 likely starters in this state-bred turf sprint making their racing debuts without the benefit of a single breeze on turf, this race is borderline inscrutable. Grand Tiger finally makes it to the post at age four, so he’s clearly had his share of problems, but the son of Smiling Tiger has displayed an immense amount of speed in his most recent series of drills and could wind up being something in a nothing race. If he leaves cleanly from the gate, he’s likely to be the quickest of the quick. Barely Functional has the benefit of two prior outings and produced an excellent debut performance over the local turf course when second in a fast, highly rated sprint won by the talented Boss Sully last month. Badly overmatched in the Echo Eddie Stakes on dirt in his next outing, the son of Mrazek returns to reality, and if that poor experience three weeks ago didn’t mess him up, the Antonio Garcia-trained sophomore will be a strong factor throughout. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Grand Tiger.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Nickel Nickel Nine; 6-Don’ttestyourluck; 10-Buck Owens
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Anything goes in this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claimer over a mile on the main track for older horses. Best advice is to use as many as your budget allows; small ticket players can consider the three runners listed above. Nickel Nickel Nine was a $12,500 claim at Golden Gate Fields two weeks ago and vans down to try his luck on this circuit for new trainer Jonathan Wong, who boasts a powerful 28% with this angle. On pure numbers, he’s highly competitive despite the change in venue and raise in claiming price, and from the rail the 15-race maiden should have every chance to take full advantage of a ground-saving trip. Donttestyourluck just finished a close second in a similar affair earlier this month and anything close that type of performance should make him the one to beat. His speed figure, a career top, was solid for the level. Buck Owens must overcome the 10 hole but this sharp drop in class could be the ticket for a considerable forward move. He makes a pivotal switch to leading rider Juan Hernandez and likely will drop back early and then take hold from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Eleuthera; 6-True Patriot; 5-Golden Again
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Here’s another messy affair, this one a first-level state-bred allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. Eleuthera has been knocking on the door at this level and shows a prior win over this course and distance when beating maidens last year. She’s been sparingly raced of late but off her best effort the daughter of Square Eddie looks good enough to handle this group. True Patriot has solid form at this level over the local lawn and really won’t have to improve much to win. She’s a bit one-paced to truly trust, but with the switch to top rider Juan Hernandez she must be considered a major player. Golden Again was more than three lengths clear or the rest when a good runner-up under these conditions in late March. She’s relatively lightly raced (just eight starts) and may have a bit more improvement in her.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Eda; 4-Teddy’s Barino
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: She has won off layoffs twice in the past (including her debut), so we’re going to assume that Eda is fit and ready to return a winner in this open allowance sprint for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Munnings is a Grade-1 winner seeking her fifth straight victory, and her recent work tab indicates she has retained all of her speed. The rail is no bargain but if she leaves cleanly the Bob Baffert-trained four-year-old should be able to secure a decent ground-saving position and then have her chance when the pressure is turned on. Teddy’s Barino doesn’t have the resume that our top pick owns but she actually has faster speed figures and always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent, with six wins from 10 career starts. Effective at any distance, the daughter of Grazen got away with crawling splits in her most recent win but she can turn on the jets when necessary and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. We’ll give Eda the slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Battle Call
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Battle Call, claimed out of his first start last year for $75,000 by his present connections, makes his first start in more than a year in this extended turf sprint and has trained quite well for his comeback while taking the critical class drop from straight maiden (at Oaklawn Park) to maiden $50,000 claiming. The John Sadler-trained four-year-old also is a first-time gelding and has two-turn speed figures from last year that should be more than sufficient to win this race. Furthermore, as a son of Hard Spun, he should actually be better on grass than dirt, and perhaps better sprinting than routing, too, so it all adds up to a win play and rolling exotic single.
