“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Eligio; 1-Ace of Clubs
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ace of Clubs just edged Eligio by a half-length in a a similar starter’s allowance sprint but we have a hunch the result might be reversed today due to the draw, which finds the former leaving from the rail and the latter from a much more comfortable five post position. Otherwise, they’re pretty much the same, though Eligio should be a better price and therefore gets a slight preference. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Crimson Rose; 9-Quaria Thunder
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Crimson Rose is a first-off-the-claim for red hot Peter Eurton (solid stats with this angle) and switches to Juan Hernandez, so the daughter of Fed Biz seems like the logical top pick after finishing a close fourth at this level over this course last month. She’s most effective as the controlling speed, so we anticipate such a strategy will be employed. Stablemate Quaria Thunder, also making her first start since being haltered by Eurton for $25,000 out of that same July 30 race (she weakened to finish seventh) should produce a forward move as well, though from her outside draw the daughter of Mizzen Mast might being taken back and allowed to produce a late kick. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Anybody’s Choice
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Anybody’s Choice was convincing when winning a $40,000 seller here last month and should be capable of repeating on the raise after being claimed by Phil D’Amato. The daughter of Tapwrit catches a highly favorable pace scenario in this six runner affair for sophomore fillies and gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to a talented 7 lb. bug boy. Today’s extra sixteenth of a mile shouldn’t be an issue for her, so at 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Westward Look; 2-Inch; 1-Irish Heatwave.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We have a feeling this race might have a pace meltdown – Maven and Cane Creek Road have only one way to go – so we’ll operate under the assumption that the race will be won from behind. The main contenders in this messy and borderline inscrutable five furlong grass dash for $25,000 claimers are drawn inside. Westward Look finished a sharp second in a similar affair earlier this month and not much more will be needed to beat this field. His 2-for-24 career mark isn’t inspiring, but his best race can win it. Inch projects to be a strong late factor – he was fourth in the same race our top pick exits – but will need some racing luck through the lane to make an impact. Irish Heatwave is a past classer with numbers that fit, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that he’s winless in 10 starts over the local lawn. Still, he represents a late threat and at 10-1 is worth including on your ticket. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Thermal
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Greer My Dear.
Forecast: Thermal was extremely well meant in her debut sprinting in her debut last month but came up short in the final furlong and wound up a fading fourth. We’re expecting the daughter of Nyquist to be much fitter today and take this maiden juvenile field gate to wire. The daughter of Nyquist should easily establish the running in this main track miler and dominate in a race that came up relatively soft. The John Sadler-trained filly is 2-1 on the morning line and will offer value at that price if you can get it.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Tom Horn; 4-Resilient
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Tom Horn seeks his third straight win and his powerful recent speed figures indicate the Steve Miyadi-trained son of Grazen and move up the ladder again and extend his streak. His win over this course and distance last month and visually quite pleasing when accomplished in a starter’s allowance race and this first level allowance field isn’t all that much tougher. Resilient, freshened since early June, tries grass for the first time and may like it, though his dirt pedigree doesn’t guarantee it. The son of Curlin to Mischief has a good stalking style and should be within striking range and have his chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Duty First
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Duty First surfaces in a maiden claimer for the first time and should be able to take advantage of the softer competition. The Jeff Mullins-trained colt finished third in a hot state bred sprint earlier this month, and the speed figure he earned in this race is good enough to win. He’s nicely drawn outside and makes a positive jockey switch to Hector Berrios. Listed at 7/2 on the morning line, the son of Smiling Tiger will offer excellent wagering value at or near that price.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-One Fast Bro; 8-Grape Nuts Warrior
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-No Slo Mo.
Forecast: Back from Golden Gate Fields where he ran quite well in three starts during the late spring, One Fast Bro is a two time winner over the Del Mar turf course and drops to his lowest level ever in this $25,000 two-turner in his first start since mid-June. He’s reunited with Kent Desormeaux, who has won on him in the past, so we’re expecting a major effort from the veteran son of Coil. The local works are steady and healthy for trainer Quinn Howey, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s clearly the one to beat. Grape Nuts Warrior is an intriguing Saratoga shipper seeking valuable ship-and-win purse money. The son of Vancouver is a tad light up numbers but can turn it on late and should be a strong contender at this level on this circuit,
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RACE 9: Post: 6:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Eda; 3-Lady T
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Eda lands the cozy outside post and looks well-spotted to win her seventh straight race (and her eighth in 10 starts) in this year’s edition of the Rancho Bernardo Handicap-G2. The Bob Baffert-trained filly doesn’t usually win by much, but she certainly knows where the wire is, and given the moderate projected race flow the daughter of Munnings should inherit an ideal stalking trip outside and then kick home when called upon. Lady T returned off a long layoff to beat a good allowance field over the local main track last month and has trained very well in the interim. We haven’t seen her best yet, so with another forward move she could pose a challenge to our top pick.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Port Ellen; 10-Luly Lemon Drop
Backups/savers: 8-Calabrian Queen; 9-Annie’s Joy.
Forecast: Port Ellen drops into a $50,000 claimer after failing to land a blow in her U.S. in mid-June when facing considerably tougher first level allowance grass sprinters in a very hot race for the level. These are considerably easier, slot her Phil D’Amato-trained Irish-bred sophomore seems sure to improve considerably. The stretch out to a mile shouldn’t be an issue, so at 6-1 on the morning line she’ll offer a reasonable price chance in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Lulu Lemon Drop is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but after finishing second in a similar affair in late June at Santa Anita the daughter of Long On Value must be considered a solid contender.
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