Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Sunday, September 29, 2019
*
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Heros Reward
Forecast: Heros Reward has done everything like a very good colt in the a.m. for B. Baffert and looks plenty fit and ready for a winning effort first crack out of the box. The son of Flatter – a $450,000 yearling buy – is an outstanding individual with enough speed to win sprinting though his future probably lies in distance event. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 12:58 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Seahawk Wave; 5-Passing
Forecast: The second half of the early daily double – a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint – drew just five starters. Passing is comfortably drawn outside and should be part of the pace throughout. His numbers are rising with each outing for high percentage trainer J. Wong and with another forward move, even slight, the son of Cross Traffic can get the money. Seahawk Wave is a perfect one-for-one over the local main track but was a voided claim when third as the favorite in a slightly tougher spot at Del Mar in mid-August. He’s solid on numbers and should be tough to beat if he fires his best shot and avoids trouble from the rail. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a very slight edge on top to Passing.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Alvaaro
Forecast: Alvaaro was a tad disappointing when a fading third in his comeback two weeks ago at Los Alamitos, so he’s dropped from $40,000 to $20,000 for the money in this bottom-rung maiden claimer. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding actually earned a speed figure that is better than par for this level, so if he produces a forward move, or simply doesn’t go backwards, the 3-year-old gelding should be able to outrun this field from gate to wire. However, at 8/5 on the morning line, he’s an unattractive play. We make him a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Carpe Noctem; 8-Nietzsche
Forecast: Carpe Noctem was five lengths clear of the rest when second in a similar maiden claimer at Los Alamitos earlier this month and not much more will be needed to secure his diploma in this sprint for maiden $30,000 juveniles. While he’s hardly likely to duplicate the 27 point Beyer speed figure improvement he achieved between his first and second start, the son of Carpe Diem has every right to continue his improving pattern in a rather modest affair. Nietzsche was a fair third in his debut at a big price (29-1) at Del Mar and has a right to improve with that bit of experience behind him. He could be heard from late and is worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 1-Secret Spice
Forecast: Single Spice was beaten a head by Ollie’s Candy in the Clement L. Hirsch S.-G1 at Del Mar but she much prefers the Santa Anita main track and will be a short price to turn the tables on her main rival in this year’s edition of the Zenyatta S.-G1. The R. Baltas-trained filly projects to be on or near a moderate pace from her inside draw and then go on with it when called upon. At 8/5 on the morning line, she’s the logical top pick and a rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Dearborn; 6-Anonymously
Forecast: The two main players in this first-level allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares are drawn towards the outside in this six-runner affair. Anonymously has been tried sprinting and routing throughout her career and it’s become fairly obvious that she’s most effective going short. Second to a next-out winner when well clear of the others in a fast, highly-rated affair last month at Del Mar, the daughter of Gio Ponti can be effective on the lead or from a stalking position so K. Desormeaux can assess the pace flow from his outside draw and then choose a strategy. She’s the second choice on the morning line behind favored Dearborn a $40,000 claiming winner at Del Mar last time out with a career top number that is good enough to win at this level if repeated. Both should be included in rolling exotics play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Anonymously on top.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Into a Hot Spot; 6-Jen Go Unchained
Forecast: Into a Hot Spot, listed at 4-1 on the morning line, earned a giant speed figure when breaking his maiden three races but was well below that form in two subsequent outings, one over a track listed as “good” and then other in a two-turn turf affair in his West Coast debut at Del Mar. The son of Into Mischief gets ideal conditions today to regain his edge and a recent sharp half mile breeze over the local main track should have this J. Mullins-trained colt spot on. The logical favorite at 8/5 on the morning line is Jen Go Unchained, dropping out of a tougher starter’s allowance sprint for M. Puype and switching to A. Cedillo. His numbers are solid but still short of what ‘Spot is capable of doing, so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring the higher-priced Into a Hot Spot in the straight pool.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Tyrannical Rex; 9-Mo Forza
Mo Forza was nosed out in a much stronger first-level allowance race at Del Mar last time out and today returns to the maiden ranks with numbers that are far superior to par for this level. Anything close to his last race beats this group. Tyrannical Rex closed with courage in a promising debut sprinting on grass at Del Mar while giving indication that he’ll be better suited over a distance of ground. He’s probably worth using as a back-up in rolling exotic play, but the main push goes to Mo Forza, who may very well go lower than his morning line of 9/5.
