July 12, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga Sixth Race – Post: 4:05 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 10-Classic Time.
Other Contenders: 2-Reteko; 6-King’s Leap; 9-Replevin.
Forecast: Classic Time did everything but win in his debut at Aqueduct in late May. The M. Casse-trained colt broke well and established the running while under constant pressure along the rail, shook off his pace rival in mid-stretch but then was nailed on the wire by a perfect tripper before galloping out well willingly in an off-the turf dash that produced an okay (not great) speed figure. This straight maiden event is a restricted affair (for horses that were purchased or RNA’d for $50,000 or less) so if he produces any sort of forward move the son of Classic Empire should be primed to graduate. There are three first timers that you should be concerned about, and you can use them on your main track and/or as back-ups in rolling exotic play. King’s Leap has done some interesting work at Finger Lakes for a high percentage outfit whose first timers often run better than they work. The King for a Day gelding is listed at 10-1 on the morning line and it would not be surprising if he’s better than that. Reteko sports an impressive recent gate drill over the Belmont Park training track (:47 flat, third fastest of 109) last Friday that catches the eye and in addition to a few decent drills before that indicate ability. Replevin looked okay breezing a furlong in :10 1/5 without changing leads in the OBS April sale before bringing $50,000 through the ring. At 12-1 on the morning line, he’s worth tossing in somewhere.
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Saratoga Eighth Race – Post: 5:12 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 4-Striker Has Dial.
Other Contenders: 6-Bells Beach; 1-Miss Justify.
Forecast: Striker Has Dial graduated for fun in her debut over a wet track at Laurel Park in early May in a visually sharp performance that was better than her modest speed figure gives her credit for. Apparently, players put more weight into her number than they did they did their own eyes, because in her next start the daughter of Dialed In left at 28-1 in a first level allowance main track miler and improved her fig by 26 points when an excellent runner-up to the high class Grade-1 performer Ways and Means over this track and distance while winding up more than six lengths clear of the others. She’s had more than four weeks off since that hot affair, so she should be able to maintain her form (or maybe even improve a bit) in this powerful first level allowance miler for sophomore fillies. She might even wind up being the the controlling speed if they want her to be. There’s a solid gamble here at 3-1 on the morning line and with two other attractive fillies in the field you may be able to get it. Bells Beach is yet another that shows a positive trajectory. She was given a run to be an even fourth sprinting in her debut at Keeneland and then moved forward considerably when improving her speed figure by 11 points in victory by more than five lengths at this distance at Churchill Downs early last month. As a daughter of Curlin, the $675,000 yearling purchase in Chad Brown’s stable has an enormous ceiling. Miss Justify is improving with experience and she’s another coming off a big figure effort, a smart score facing first level allowance types over a one turn mile at Churchill Downs that far exceeded her previous three outings. She projects to enjoy a ground-saving, stalking trip and have every chance from there.
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Saratoga Ninth Race – Post 5:47 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 6-Ever So Sweet (GB).
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Ever So Sweet is a lightly raced sophomore filly fresh from earning by far a career top number in just her fourth career start when wiring the field in an allowance grass dash at the Big A in late May in her first start since November. Clearly a much faster (and stronger) filly now than as a 2-year-old, the daughter of Calyx has worlds of zip, and if she can shake loose early without pressure she can take this group gate to wire. The Irish-bred sprinter in B. Cox’s care caught a break when the logical favorite Star of Mystery-GB was taken out of this race after being entered back on Sunday.
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