“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 2-Klimtoglory; 17-Lookout Point; 1-Stotland
Forecast: There’s nothing to trust in this maiden $50,000 turf miler for 3-year-olds, so we’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Klimtoglory was more than nine lengths clear of the rest when beaten a neck in a similar event on the main track last month, and while the time was slow and speed figure modest, we’re expecting this S. Miyadi-trained ridgeling to step forward considerably in his first start on grass. F. Prat stays aboard and should have him within range throughout. Lookout Pointis a one-paced grinder with already eight races on his resume, but he’s a fit on numbers and is a contender by default. Stotland drops drastically from a stakes race into this massively softer spot and also is a first-time Lasix and first-time gelding, so you have to use him. The issue is his gap-filled work tab since his most recent start in November, so his condition is a question.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:01 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Wall Street Trader; 2-Kimmer
Forecast: Wall Street Trader shows the dangerous maiden-to-maiden claiming class drop angle in this $30,000 seller for sophomores, and from his cozy outside draw and the switch to F. Prat the S. Callaghan-trained gelding seems well-placed to graduate. However, at 6/5 on the morning line in his first race on dirt, he certainly doesn’t offer any wagering value. Kimmer has shown a smidgeon of talent in morning drills and may be competitive in a soft race in this league. You can toss him in somewhere.
Notable Workouts:
Kimmer (February 3, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4hg). Grade: B-
Fair-to-moderate gate drill for Hanson, some coaxing throughout with splits of :24.4, :36.4 and :48.4 on our watches while much best over Clare (3f, :37;1hg). Not the worst, might be competitive with low-level maiden claimers.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 7-Laura Mars; 8-Cuban Crisis
Forecast: Laura Mars lost all chance at the start when stumbling badly and spotting the field several lengths in a similar turf sprint for older fillies and mares last month. The fact that she finished as close as she leads to the obvious conclusion that she was best when beaten. A strong healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs since that outing is another positive factor, so if she leaves cleanly today the daughter of Elusive Quality will be hard to beat. Interestingly, F. Prat, who was aboard in that race, apparently prefers Cuban Crisis, whom he rode in a much-troubled third place effort over this course and distance in her U.S. debut in late January. The M. Glatt-trained filly steadied and checked repeatedly in traffic at various points of the race before getting clear in the upper stretch and then grinding to the wire to finish third, beaten less than a length. Based on what we saw on video, we’ll give a slight preference on top to Laura Mars while including both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Con On the Run; 6-Big Leaf
Forecast: 1-Con On the Run; 6-Bright Leaf
Notable Workouts: Con On the Run was disqualified from a similar starter’s allowance sprint last month in a questionable call by the stewards but gets a chance to make amends today and will be tough to beat if he can maintain a straight line. He’s strong in the speed figure department, quick enough to use his rail post to good advantage and is reunited with “win rider” R. Gonzales. Bright Leaf is worth consideration as well, though he’s considerably slower on speed figures than our top pick. The J. Sadler-trained colt propped approaching the wire and lost his ride, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the process. He’s trained very well since, so we’re expecting a forward move from the son of Dialed In. The main push goes to Con On the Run, but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics.
Bright Leaf (January 31, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Clearly best by more than a length in team drill inside Area Code (5f, 1:01.3h) for Sadler, splits of :24 flat, :36 flat and 1:01 flat on our watches, never really asked while drawing clear late, straight and true throughout. Propped approaching the wire and cost himself a win last time but had no such issues here. Looks good.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Lady Blackbird; 6-Bold Choice; 1-Increase Stakes
Forecast: The late Pick-5 begins with another maiden race, this one for state-bred 3-year-old fillies over six furlongs on turf that requires using at least three and perhaps a few more if your budget allows. Lady Blackbird has shown a moderate amount of ability in the morning, but she has a grass pedigree and on turf could easily be better than the workouts show. She’s a big, strong, filly who will probably do her best eventually over a distance of ground, but against a suspect field she might offer wagering value at or near her morning line of 10-1. We’ll take a shot and put her on top. Bold Choice just failed at 30 cents on the dollar so she’s hardly one to trust. She doesn’t really have a pedigree that suggests she’ll improve on the lawn but based on her speed figures she may not have to. Increase Stakes has plenty of early speed and we suspect will bust out and try to take her foes gate-to-wire from her inside draw. She hasn’t shown any willingness to finish under pressure in three previous starts but against this group she may get brave if she can shake loose early.
Notable Workouts:
Lady Blackbird (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1hg). Grade: B-
Never really asked much in gate drill outside Team Concept (same time), steady splits of :24.3, :36.4 and :49.1. Good-sized filly appears to be a decent mover but clearly isn’t a quick type; pedigree suggests she wants to run long on the lawn.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-State of the Union
Forecast: The sixth race is a weak affair for maiden $30,000 3-year-olds over a mile on the main track. State of the Union is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite, not so much due to anything he’s done but simply because of the lack of a viable alternative among the other five starters. The J. Wong-trained gelding exits an okay sprint in his first start for this barn and his first in nearly three months and can be expected to produce a forward move stretching out. The son of Union rags switches to A. Cedillo and likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics in a race with little speed, early or late.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Keyflower; 5-Rocking Redhead; 8-Hogans Holiday
Forecast: Keyflower makes her West Coast debut after facing an infinitely tougher group in the E. P. Taylor S.-G1 at Woodbine last fall. She finished sixth without mishap in that race but was beaten only two lengths and earned a strong speed figure, so in this second-level allowance affair the French-bred filly is a major player, especially as a first-time Lasix user and with F. Prat aboard. Rocking Redhead, away since last May, is another dangerous comebacker, especially so since she’s won off a layoff in the past. The works are solid and should have her plenty fit, and we’re expecting gate-to-wire tactics to be employed, though Moraz may have something to say about that. Hogans Holiday makes a jockey change to U. Rispoli and is certain to receive the patient ride she prefers. With the some help up front, the veteran mare has a big look based on her sharp runner-up effort at this level last month.
Notable Workouts:
Rocking Redhead (February 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Not asked in solo training track drill for Baltas, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.3. Been away, getting fit, looks good. Wants the front end to herself going long.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Atomic Drop; 2-Scary Fast Smile
Forecast: Atomic Drop has been rested since the fall but based on a recent impressive gate drill (see below) the P. D’Amato gelding is returning better than he left. An eight length maiden winner over the local main track last summer that produced a career top number, the son of Mucho Macho Man retains regular pilot A. Cedeno and is the deserving 9/6 morning line favorite. The rail is the only concern. Scary Fast Smile can be used on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver. He’s a first-off-the-claim for D. O’Neill (solid 19% with this angle) and has finished in the money in six of seven career outings over the Santa Anta dirt track, though his recent form has been below standard. Perhaps he’ll snap back for his new connections.
Notable Workouts:
Atomic Drop (February 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: A-
In blinkers, excellent solo gate drill for P. D’Amato, slow early but strong late, splits of :24.4, :36.1, :47.4 and 1:00 flat before coasting to the wire in 1:13 flat, very sharp in the late stages. Rested since Del Mar and appears to be coming back better than he left. On edge, has first-level state-bred conditions and has won over the Santa Anita main track in the past.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Epoch; 6-Sumter; 2-Doitforandrew
Forecast: The card concludes with the Pasadena Stakes for 3-year-old over a mile on grass. We’ll go three deep while trying to get a middle-priced horse home. Epoch, listed at 6-1 on the morning line, was impressive breaking his maiden sprinting over the local lawn last month, doing so after wearing down the odd-son favorite close home while more than 12 lengths clear of the others in a fast, highly-rated affair. The son of Mastery gives every indication both in the morning and in the afternoon of wanting to run on, so at this mile trip the K. Desormeaux-trained sophomore has an excellent chance to step up and produce another upset victory. He has tactical speed and should be within range throughout. Sumter was quite sharp breaking his maiden sprinting on turf at Del Mar last November and returns with a series of fast dirt drills that should have him fit off the bench in his first try around two turns. It would not be surprising to see him on the lead, and if so, the R. Mandella-trained colt could be very tough to catch. We’ll also toss in Doitforandrew, another one of those dangerous Irish imports from the P. D’Amato barn. The form overseas looks just okay, but many of these European private purchases turn out to be much improved after joining this stable and a recent training track drill really caught the eye. At 5-1 on the morning line, he has to be included somewhere.
Notable Workouts:
Doitforandrew (February 7, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h TT). Grade: B+
Looked quite good in team drill with Cali Bay (same time), breaking off a couple of lengths in front down the backside and maintaining the through the lane while under a nice hold and displaying excellent, easy action, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36 flat. Form overseas was okay, not great, but he could easily be a much better type around here for P. D’Amato. Plenty fit, it would appear.
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Crosby Beach (February 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :47;1h). Grade: B
Ridden a bit late and may have been a tad second best while head-and-head at the wire with Piroli (same time) for M. McCarthy, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.2. Good work under the circumstances (he’s much better on grass) and should get tested on the raise after a game maiden win.
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Sumter (February 12, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.1h). Grade: B+
Was under a hold through the lane while stride-for-stride late withSet Sail (6f, 1:12.3h) for R. Mandella, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :37.1, strong drill over deepish main track by a turf specialist. Away since November, returning in good shape and should make an excellent 3-year-old
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Epoch (February 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h). Grade: B+
Solo half mile breeze for Mastery colt, splits of :11.4 and :35.4 for the final three furlongs while giving every indication that the longer they go, the better he will be. Broke his maiden sprinting on turf in fast time and should have much more to give when stretching out. Very nice prospect for K. Desormeaux.
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