“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Mo Gold
Forecast: Mo Gold ran a winning race in defeat when worn down late in a sharp debut performance over the local lawn earlier this month. The son of Uncle Mo was off slowly from the rail, rushed up to establish the pace, stayed on well through the lane but missed while more than five lengths clear of the rest. A similar effort today should be more than good enough to graduate, though at 6/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value.
Notable Workouts:
Gustav (January 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Displayed some quickness early while well several lengths clear of Arrabiata (same time) under mild coaxing but was caught late although not under much pressure to be head-and-head after five furlongs, splits of :24.2, :36.2, :48.3 and 1:01.3 for D. O’Neill. Seems to have some early speed, hard to gauge how much quality. Should be plenty fit by now.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-All Dialed In
Forecast: All Dialed In is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this shallow maiden sprint for older fillies and mares. A recent work was disappointing, so she’s not the type of a short-priced choice we’d care to take, but on paper she’s a standout in a race lacking a viable alternative. You can play her if you’d like as rolling exotic single, but simply passing the race might be the better way to go.
Notable Workouts:
All Dialed In (January 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4hg). Grade: C+
Clearly best inside Exclamation (5f, 1:02hg) but went slower than given and was getting out every step of the way, splits of :24.4, :36.4, :49.1 and 1:02 flat. Form isn’t bad but it’ll be hard to have confidence in her based on this drill. Question mark.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Escape Route; 7-See Through It
Forecast: Escape Route (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) has been stuck on seconds lately (four straight) but his numbers are fast and consistent so he should be able to win this condition eventually, perhaps today. As a son of Hard Spun from a mare by Speightstown he’s certainly bred to move up on grass, and at this extended sprint trip the M. Glatt-trained colt should be able settle in mid-pack and then produce a winning late bid. F. Prat got to known him last time out and stays aboard. See Though It (TOC=3-1; ML=4-1) isn’t as fast on speed figures as our top pick but projects to settle into an ideal stalking position outside and have his chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll have tickets including both in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Escape Route.
Notable Workouts:
Escape Route (January 15, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.2h). Grade: C+
In blinkers, went off slowly while appearing a bit disinterested but then picked it up a bit through the lane when asked mildly, splits of :25.1 and :50.2 for M. Glatt. Never much of a worker, saves his best for the afternoon.
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City Rage (January 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B-
Ridden out bit most of the way while slightly second best with the classy Collusion Illusion (same time, breezing), splits of :24.2, :36 flat, :47.4 and 1:00.2, okay work for M. Glatt. Been away since May, might not be totally cranked up just yet.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 2-La Pulcinela; 3-Flat Out Joy
Forecast La Pulcinela (TOC=Evens; ML=2-1) has the route-to-sprint angle we like and is dropping from a much tougher starter’s allowance $25,000 affair into this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 seller. She can be quite comfortable as a late-running sprinter and at this six and one-half furlong trip the daughter of Flatter looks capable of producing the last run. Flat Out Joy (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2), in the frame in her last pair, always has been content to finish second or third (10 times) rather than win (twice) but will be nicely placed on or near the lead throughout and should remain a major factor throughout. We’ll give La Pulcinela the edge on top while including both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Shoppingforpharoah; 3-Island of Love
Forecast: Shoppingforpharoah (TOC=3/5; ML=3-1) is a need-the-lead type and projects to be strolling on the front end without anything in the field likely to pressure her. The daughter of American Pharoah finished second in the Blue Norther S. over this course and distance earlier this month when throttled down on the lead; perhaps today she’ll be allowed to stride out early and put to good use some of her natural speed. Island of Love (TOC=5-1; ML=8/5) is an unbeaten (in two starts) Italian invader now in the P. D’Amato barn, which has superior stats with these first-off-the-plane European imports. She’s a diminutive filly with a good turn of foot, picks up F. Prat, and should be competitive on this circuit based on her overseas Timeform ratings. We’ll give Shoppingforpharoah the edge on top but have tickets using both in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference: 2-Burnin Turf; 4-Suzie Qzz Brother; 5-Betito
Forecast: Here’s race requiring a spread, as none of the main contenders appear to be trustworthy. Burnin Turf (TOC=4-1; ML=5-1) prefers the front end but can stalk, pounce, and go if the pace flow dictates, so his connections have options based on how the race shapes up. He’s strong in the speed figure department, shows a healthy recent work tab, and figures to fire his best shot in this first-level allowance California-bred main track miler. Suzie Qzz Brother (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) stretches out for the first time, and if he’s ever going to handle two turns, we suspect it’ll be in his first try. The blinkers-off angle intrigues us as well, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on your ticket. Betito (TOC=5-1; ML=2-1) got good last summer but his recent form has been stale, and he’s always been a need-the-lead type in a race that contains other front-runners that are drawn inside of him. That said, the Heat Shield gelding is reunited with F. Prat, under whom he ran well to be second two runs back while earning a speed figure that makes him a major player. We’ll toss him in.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Say the Word; 4-Friar’s Road
Forecast: Say the Word (TOC=9/5; ML=2-1), fresh from a smart win in the Hollywood Turf Cup-G2 in November, has looked sharp and eager in recent workouts to indicate he’s ready to pick up where he left off. There should be sufficient pace in the race to set things up for his closing kick, so we’re expecting the P. D’Amato-trained gelding to be along in time. Friar’s Road (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) is just 2-for-12 in his career but has numbers that make him quite dangerous. He was a close third to Say the Word at Del Mar two runs back and lost little in defeat last time out when nosed out in the off-the-turf San Gabriel S. in late December. Say the Word will get most of the play in our rolling exotics while Friar’s Road will be used as a backup.
Notable Workouts:
Say the Word (January 17, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B
Broke off a few lengths behind Midnight Silence and Quidproquo Joeblow (both 5f, 1:03.2h TT) in training track breeze and caught that pair close home while just galloping through the lane, final quarter mile in :24.4. Won the Hollywood Turf Cup-G2 at Del Mar in November and seems sharp and eager following his freshening.
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Friar’s Road (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B
Much the best over Offlee Naughty (5f, 1:01.3h) for M. McCarthy, mildly urged through the lane while lengthening out in the final stages, splits of :24.3, :36.4 and 1:01.2 on our watches, slower than given but decent enough. Handles any surface, marathoner always gives his best in the afternoon.
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Bob and Jackie (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TC). Grade: B-
Turned in good clocking while working well off the race in solo turf drill for R. Baltas but was under some urging through the lane and never switched leads. Was hoping for better after upset gate-to-wire win in the San Gabriel S.-G3 last month.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:04 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Bold Choice; 5-Unwritten Code
Forecast: Bold Choice finished a solid runner-up in a similar state-bred maiden sprint at Del Mar in November, though as the 6/5 favorite more was expected. She returns following a two month vacation with a brief work tab that includes a half-mile drill two weeks ago that was a tad disappointing. The daughter of Grazen certainly can win, but there is a concern that at the present time she’s not quite where she was during the fall. Unwritten Code has rising speed figures but was a voided claim for $50,000 when second as the 3/5 favorite at Los Alamitos in mid-December. She’s being protected today, so we’ll assume she’s okay, but she is another that may be hard to trust. These are the two main contenders, but the confidence level is low. Tread lightly.
Notable Workouts:
Bold Choice (January 16, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B-
Ridden hard from the three furlong pole to the wire to be all out, splits of :11.3 and :36.2 for S. Knapp. Away since November, was expecting to see a bit better but is a Cal-bred maiden and is eligible to return in a soft spot.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:34 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Smuggler’s Run; 1-Maglev
Forecast: Smuggler’s Run (TOC=Evens; ML=3-1) scored at first asking and did it the right way, quickly gaining control after a slow start to make the lead in hand and then lengthening at will in the final furlong. He joins the R. Baltas barn, switches to J. Hernandez, moves into stakes company, and goes from dirt to turf, so there’s a lot of new stuff on his table. However, he’s strikes us as a quality colt with plenty of improvement in him, so at 3-1 on the morning let’s put him on top. Additionally, the analytics love him. Maglev (TOC=5-1; ML=5/2) shortens to an extended sprint after a sharp U.S. debut when runner-up over a mile in the Eddie Logan S. earlier this month. He was effective sprinting overseas during his two-year-old season and with some help up front will be heard from in the closing stages. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Echosmith (January 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.3h TT). Grade: B
Looked nice in company with Indio Mo (4f, :51h TT), breaking off a couple of lengths behind and then finishing head-and-head at the wire without really being asked (workmate ridden), final three furlongs in :12.3 and :36.4. Seems like a useful gelding from Europe, getting fit, definitely a route type.
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