Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Pick-6 Carryover Analysis and Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
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Santa Anita 3rd Race – Post: 2:00 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Main Ticket: 6-Winds of Freedom
Backups: 7-A Votre Sante
Forecast: After beating maiden $50,000 foes with authority last month at Del Mar (and improving his Beyer speed figure by 17 months off his debut performance), Winds of Freedom is properly protected in this starter’s allowance affair and is listed at 4/5 on the morning line. An extremely healthy work tab (four breezes since raced) and a decided edge on numbers, the D. O’Neill-trained colt looks very much like a logical, short priced single. For those who’d prefer protection on a ticket or two, A Votre Sante should be given consideration. He’s not as fast on figure as our top pick but shows a rising pattern and is drawn comfortably outside. With another forward move, he could make a run for it.
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Santa Anita – 4th race – Post: 2:30 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Main Ticket: 6-Call Me Sir
Backups: 1-Keep Dancin Nick; 2-King of Dragons
Forecast: Here’s another logical short priced single. Call Me Sir didn’t get the best of trips when veering in sharply at the break to cause interference and then being forced wide early from an outside draw in a similar maiden state-bred turf miler for juveniles at Del Ma. Despite all that, he stayed on nicely to be second in a strong second outing performance, with further improvement expected with added experience. He’ll add blinkers today, and with a similar effort minus the trouble the Sir Prancealot colt should be set to graduate but won’t offer much value. Those seeking protection can use the possible pacesetter (and first time router) Keep Dancin Nick and King of Dragon, fourth in the same race our top pick exits in his debut and likely to be a factor if he can drop his head and settle down during the early stages.
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Santa Anita 5th Race – Post: 3:00 PT. Degree of confidence: C+
Main Ticket: 5-In Your Life; 1-One Arrow; 3-Looks Lucky; 4-Beauty N the Bolt
Backups: 2-Beautiful Janet
Forecast: Here’s a messy affair restricted (nw-2) $16,000 older fillies and mares over a mile on the main track. There a several legitimate possibilities but nothing to trust, so we’ll go four deep on our main track and hope to survive and advance. In Your Life got a confidence building win at Los Alamitos with a career top speed figure and has trained well since, so with another forward move the P. Eurton-trained filly has a legitimate chance to score right back. One Arrow was visually quite pleasing breaking her maiden at this trip two runs back at Del Mar but then was in too tough when dropping out of it at the head of the lane in a much stronger starter’s allowance affair over the Del Mar. Back on dirt and realistically spotted, the N. Drysdale-trained daughter of Munnings should be able to return to good form at this level. Looks Lucky has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern, tackles a softer field, and has numbers that are headed in the right direction. She projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance. Beauty N the Bolt
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Santa Anita 6th race – Post: 3:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Gem Mine
Backups: 7-Collectmythoughts.
Forecast: Gem Mine is winless in six starts over the Santa Anita lawn but at least she hit the board in three of those outings, so it’s not like she can’t handle it. Most effective when she settles into a stalking, second flight position, the veteran daughter of Kantharos has been freshened for two months but has run well off similar layoffs in the past, so we expect a top performance from the R. Baltas-trained mare in a starter optional claimer that came up fairly soft. She’s solid on numbers and project to be along in time. As a back-up, you should consider Collectmythoughts somewhere on your ticket. She had nothing behind her in a 13 length from optional $40,000 maiden claimers at Los Alamitos last month, but she earned a strong speed figure, and her pedigree suggests she can move up on grass.
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Santa Anita 7th Race – Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Windribbon; 6-Special Club
Backups: 5-California Tiger; 1-Bee Eye Gee
Forecast: Windribbon was left at the gate and eliminated in his last outing at Del Mar in early September but miraculously rallied to be third, beaten less than three lengths, in a similar state-bred optional claimer while obviously best. Let’s home he breaks with his field from his cozy outside draw and then have his chance to seal the deal. He’s an eight time winner (from 40 starts) and that gives him a very respectable 20% lifetime win rate. Special Club exits a hot race, shows the route-to-sprint angle, and has numbers that fit. Top rider J. Hernandez stays aboard and knows him well. California Tiger, first or second in five of eight career starts over the Santa Anita main track, and Bee Eye Gee couldn’t take advantage of a perfect trip missing by a neck at this level last time out but he’s produced a forward move according to his speed figures in each of his four starts, so further improvement – enough to make him dangerous – is likely.
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Santa Anita 8th race – Post: 3:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Upcharge; 4-Last Elizabethan; 9-Above All Else
Backups none.
Forecast: We’ll try to get by using just two in the nightcap, but it’s truly a wide open affair so perhaps the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. Upcharge is a grinder without any turn of foot, but she’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip and will greatly appreciate this drop from maiden to maiden claimer. She has numbers than can win, so there should be no excuses. Above All Else is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but she’s another showing up in a seller for the first time and removes blinkers, two of our favorite angles.
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