February 3, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Paulliac; 3-Kolomio
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Though he graduated in straight maiden company in December at Del Mar, Paulliac is eligible to this starter optional claimer for having participated in a seller in Ireland last summer. The Phil D’Amato-trained sophomore is a progressive sort with a good stalking style and a solid late kick, and in a race that should produce the type of quick early fractions that compliment his style, the son of Starspangledbanner seems likely to drop over, get cover, and then produce a winning late kick. He’s a first time Lasix user and retains Flavian Prat, so we’ll put him on top while also including in our rolling exotics Kolomio, overmatched in the stakes company at Del Mar in his last outing but competitive at this level based on his high priced maiden claiming win over this course and distance during the fall meeting.
_____________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Impossible Task; 3-Zimba Warrior
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Impossible Task isn’t necessarily one to trust after faltering as the favorite in his most recent start here on New Year’s Eve vs. slightly stronger foes, but he does have a pair of local wins on his resume so we’ll give him a chance to bounce back in this middle distance $40,000 claimer for older horses. The John Sadler-trained gelding is most effective on or near the lead throughout, and in this five runner affair the son of Liam’s Map should have no excuses. Zimba Warrioris a solid fit at this level based on speed figures despite being boosted all the way up from the $16,000 level following a game win last month. The Bob Hess, Jr.-trained veteran does his best work from off the pace and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, with a very slight edge on top to Impossible Task.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bajan Bashert
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Bajan Bashert was no match for runaway winner Sassy Nature in a similar state-bred maiden sprint for sophomore fillies last month but she was more than eight lengths clear of the rest in a race that if duplicated should be more than good enough to earn a diploma in this modest six runner affair. The daughter of Speightster is solid on speed figures, retains Flavian Prat, and should be a short price to graduate. We’ll use her as a rolling exotic single in a race that won’t offer any wagering value in the straight pool.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Big Beauty; 7-Super Renee
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Big Beauty plummets into a $32,000 claimer (her first start for a tag) after missing as the favorite in a pair of turf sprint allowance races, the most recent of which in late December particularly disappointing when she failed to produce any type of late kick despite having every chance from the head of the lane to the wire. This group should be well within her range, but her numbers are headed in the wrong direction, so this lightly raced 5-year-old, once quite promising, clearly is being culled from the stable. She certainly can win but isn’t one to trust. Super Renee has hit the board in all three previous starts over the local lawn, and in race that projects to have soft early fractions the daughter of Super Saver should draft into a comfortable early position – perhaps even on the lead – and then have her chance to kick home when the pressure is turned on. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
_____________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-American Cat
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: American Cat lost a toughie in a similar starter optional claiming sprint on New Year’s Eve when just failing to last after being on the pace under pressure every step of the way. The son of American Freedom, a 4-year-old with just five career starts, earned by far a career top speed figure in that race, and in a field without much early speed the Dean Pederson trained gelding looks likely to dominate from gate to wire, assuming he can leave cleanly from his rail post position. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Ballet Dancing; 5-Buzz of New York
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Ballet Dancing is improving with racing and just earned a career top number when easily disposing of first level allowance foes over this course and distance in late December. She moves up a notch, but after rallying strongly against slow fractions with a powerful late kick the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro retains Frankie and seems a solid choice to repeat. Buzz of New York missed in a photo at this condition last time out in early December at Del Mar and is strictly the one to beat. Her numbers are gradually rising, she has a prior win over the local lawn, she retains leading rider Juan Hernandez, and has trained sharply and steadily at Los Alamitos for Phil D’Amato to remain on edge. We’ll give ‘Dancing a very slight edge on top – we believe she has a bit more upside – but use both in our various rolling exotics.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Tecumseh Caroline; 7-Le Deuxieme Etoile
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: After graduating from state-bred foes sprinting at Del Mar in early December with a career top speed figure, Tecumseh Caroline stretches out for the first time in this allowance optional claimer for Cal-bred fillies and mares and should have no difficulty handing the extra ground or the raise in class based on her progressive recent form. The Phil D’Amato barn has solid stats with the stretch out angle, so we’re expecting the daughter of Grazen to settle in the second flight and then have her chance to kick home when called upon. Le Deuxieme Etoile may be the controlling speed, or at least in a pace pressing early position, based on her recent sprint form, but she’s unproven on dirt, though her pedigree suggests she should be completely at home on the main track. The daughter of Nyquist is a solid fit on speed figures and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Yo Time
Backups/savers: 9-Workday; 8-Herecomegeorgieboy
Forecast: The lightly raced and improving Yo Time shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern in this mile grass affair for state-bred maiden 3-year-olds and is a likely candidate to make the running and keep on going. The pedigree doesn’t guarantee he’ll handle two turns or grass, but the Phil D’Amato-trained son of Smiling Tiger couldn’t have found an easier spot. Interestingly, regular pilot Flavian Prat jumps off to ride main contender Workday, a close third over this course and distance in a similar event last month. However, with the rail out 30 feet and from the extreme outside post, the son of Accelerate won’t have an easy task. We’ll toss him in on a backup ticket along with Herecomegeorgieboy, a close second in the same race Workday exits, while reserving the main punch for Yo Time.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
