Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Del Mar – 9/1/24
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Del Mar 7th Race – Post: 4:32 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 1-Mc Vay.
Other Contenders: 3-Muth.
Forecast: It may be a bit foolish to try to beat Muth – a certain odds-on favorite in this year’s edition of the Shared Belief Stakes for 3-year-olds – but we’ve always suspected that Mc Vay has more ability than he’s been allowed to show and expect the son of Constitution to run a career top today, which quite frankly might not be good enough anyway to beat the Baffert colt. But we’ll try based on price, which at 9/2 on the morning line and likely to drift, offers a reasonable chance at a gamble. The J. Shirreffs-trained colt adds blinkers for the first time, lands the favorable rail, and should draft into a ground-saving, second flight trip and then have his shot to prove he can be this good. Recent morning drills have been spectacular, so let’s embrace the challenge.
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Del Mar 9th race – Post: 5:32 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 2-Jarama.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: In his first start since November, Jarama ran a winning race when dropped to this maiden $50,000 state-bred level last month but had to settle for third. Considerable traffic on the turn stymied his progress and then he had too much to do when closing with interest but much too late. He gets an extra half furlong to work with today, so in his second start off a layoff the T. Yakteen-trained gelding should be along in time with better racing luck. Two easy breezes since raced is an encouraging sign, so at 5/2 on the time line let’s make this Danzing Candy sophomore a strong win play and a confident key in the various exotics.
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Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Saratoga – 9/1/24
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Saratoga 2nd Race – Post: 12:37 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 1-Indeed.
Other Contenders:: 2-Love Tempo (Ire); 9-Opulent Restraint (Ire).
Forecast: Let’s go with a price play in this maiden juvenile filly turf router that on paper looks fairly wide open. The debuting Indeed doesn’t show any fancy workout times on her resume for T. Pletcher, but we have a feeling she can run a bit. A very good mover and a very good looker (she brought $385,000 as a yearling), the daughter of Improbable has race horse sense (she switches off nicely in the morning) and appears capable of quickening when given her cue. From her good rail post she is guaranteed a ground saving trip, and while she’s giving away some valuable experience to the two other main players in the field we’re hopeful that at 8-1 on the morning line her natural ability can carry her through.
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Saratoga 11th race – Post: 5:42 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: Rebel Red (GB)
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Rebel Red (GB) has come long way rather quickly and gets a bit of a class test in this year’s renewal of the Bernard Baruch Stakes. The English-bred colt finally got around to breaking his maiden in mid-June at Churchill Downs in a very impressive performance and then verified the strength of that race by scoring right back in a first level allowance affair over this course and distance in mid-July. The C. DeVaux-trained son of Frankel tackles tougher today but based on his rising speed figures and his ability to rapidly accelerate in the stretch drive he appears capable of taking this rise to listed stakes competition in stride. At 8-1 on the morning line – there’s plenty of wagering value at that price if you can get it – we’ll make him a prime gamble on the tote and in the various rolling exotics.
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