April 23, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Southern Horse
Backups/savers: 3-Jetovator
Forecast: The deep closing Southern Horse returns to the flat course, which he much prefers over the Hillside layout, and seems capable of regaining his winning form despite having to overcome a lack of pace in a race that projects to have soft early splits. We’re expecting the Argentine-bred veteran to pick up leaders close home with anything close to his best effort, the projected race flow notwithstanding. For protection, Jetovator should be included somewhere on your ticket. The Grazen gelding is a four-time winner over the Santa Anita lawn and is likely to enjoy a soft pace-pressing/stalking trip. He finished second under these conditions to our top pick when they met in mid-February and a repeat of that effort today makes him the one to fear most.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Ruby Nell
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Ruby Nell has been a beaten favorite in both of her starts to date but she’s run very well in defeat and seems to have found a proper spot to break through with a maiden score. The daughter of Bolt d’Oro prefers to settle early and produce a late kick, and after finishing more than four lengths clear of the third place finisher when a strong runner-up last time out the Richard Mandella-trained sophomore really won’t have to improve much to graduate. With three nice breezes to tick her over since her last outing, today should be her day as a preferred win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Air Force Red
Backups/savers: 2-Whatmakessammyrun
Forecast:Back at his preferred trip, Air Force Red looks likely to regain his winning form in this year’s edition of the Siren Lure Stakes for older grass sprinters. The Leonard Powell-trained horse won impressively under these conditions earlier this season when capturing the Joe Hernandez Stakes-G2 with a career top speed figure but then failed to stay the trip in a couple of subsequent graded events at a mile. Though he’s most effective on the lead, the son of Air Forbes Blue can stalk and pounce if the situation dictates, so regularly rider Juan Hernandez can play it by ear. As a backup, we’ll toss in Whatmakessammyrun. He’s a three time winner over the local lawn, so if our top picks gets caught up in a speed duel with Sunrise Journey, this Mark Glatt-trained gelding could be well situated to pick up the pieces.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Mor Tequila
Backups/Savers: 6-Ever a Rebel
Forecast: Mor Tequila finished third in his only start last year but encountered severe early trouble that no doubt cost him the race. The Bob Baffert-trained colt returns protected in this restricted maiden special weight affair and has been impressive in the morning in his recent drills, so we’re expecting the son of Mor Spirit to show his true form in a moderate race for the level. There’s plenty of value at or near his morning linen of 5/2 if you can get it. Ever a Rebel is worth including on a ticket or two as a saver. The son of Bolt d’Oro adds blinkers, exits a much tougher maiden sprint in which he finished a distant but respectable third, and lands the cozy outside post. He’ll be part of the pace throughout and if he can shake loose early under good speed jockey Edwin Maldonado the Phil D’Amato-trained sophomore may prove had to catch.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Lasting Love; 6-Silent Beauty
Backups/savers: 1-Kiss My Kat
Forecast: Here’s a wide open restricted (nw-2) $12,500 abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares that requires a plenty of coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Lasting Love plummets in class and may have found her friends. The lightly raced filly, originally purchased for $440,00 at the OBS April sale two years ago, obviously is being culled from the stable but is reunited with “win” rider Juan Hernandez while shortening up and returning to the main track. Against this group she should be hard to beat with anything close to her debut maiden win at Los Alamitos last December. However, class droppers such as this are often shaky propositions. Silent Beauty is winless in five starts over the local main track but her recent form is solid and consistent and puts her right in the hunt once again. In the frame in her last four starts with competitive speed figures, the Peter Eurton-trained filly projects to be part of the pace throughout. Kiss My Kat broke her maiden for $20,000 last time out, was claimed by Steve Knapp, and resurfaces on the drop, not usually a healthy sign, though on pure numbers this is where she really belongs. With a bullet :46 1/5 workout just four days ago, she’s obviously doing well and with a trouble-free trip from the rail the daughter of Curlin to Mischief should at least be able to hit the board.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Never Not Once; 7-Stay In Line
Backups/savers: 1-Shambala Girl
Forecast:The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s take a shot with a newcomer in this state-bred maiden $50,000 claimer for fillies and mares. Never Not Once hails from a low profile but capable outfit and has shown enough in her morning drills to be at least competitive against this modest bunch. The daughter of Mr. Big finally makes it to the races at age four, so she’s clearly had her issues, but at 6-1 on the morning line she offers a reasonable gamble. Stay in Line shows the dangerous maiden to maiden claiming class drop while removing blinkers, switching to the main track, and picking up Hector Berrios. She displayed good early speed in both of her outings and could get brave at this level if she can clear early without having to be sent hard. Shambala Girl walked out of the gate in her debut but then closed a gap to wind up a fairly respectable but distant third. She broke slowly again in a subsequent gate drill, so we’re not getting our hopes too high that she will leave clearly from the rail, but if she does, the daughter of Mr. Big may have a bit of a look in a weak affair.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Granada Flavor; 7-Settecento
Backups/savers: 6-Papale
Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming main track miler for older horses looks familiar, as four of the eight entrants exit the same race. Granada Flavor was one over his conditions when winning at this level last month over this track and distance and remains eligible back to try to beat essentially the same group again. From his inside draw, the Sean McCarthy-trained gelding is assured a comfortable ground-saving trip, so if he can turn in two alike he can win again. Settecento had some self-caused early trouble when third behind our top pick in that common race March 18 and probably has enough improvement in him to make a run for it. The Steve Knapp-trained gelding has hit the board in six of 11 career starts including a prior win over the local main track and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip outside. Papale, fifth as the favorite when beaten by Granada Flavor last time out, has been disappointing in his last two starts but off his best day warrants a look, especially if he can secure a pace prompting early position.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Idessia
Backups/savers: 6-Timely Luck
Forecast: Idessia shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for a barn that has solid stats (18%) with this angle and looks well-placed to produce a significant forward move in this one mile grass miler for California-bred fillies and mares. The Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Smiling Tiger has encountered trouble – most of it self-caused – in her first two starts and probably has more natural talent than the lines will show. With a clean break today she should find herself close up throughout and with every chance to graduate from a lackluster field. Timely Luck, third in her last pair (both on turf) with rising speed figures, is a one-paced, grinding type also trying a distance of ground for the first time. Like our top pick, she has every right to step forward, and her sire could route, so maybe she can, too.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:07 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Chicknfingerfriday ; 2-Economical; 8-Missewd Call
Backups/Savers: 1-Big Swede
Forecast: Chicknfingerfriday easily dispatched a soft maiden claiming field last month in his ninth career outing, and while he had little behind him the son of Ill Have Another did so with a career top speed figure. He should enjoy a similar pace stalking trip and based on numbers looks quite capable of scoring right back in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 affair. The cut in claiming price from $30,000 to $16,000 isn’t a concern because based on numbers this is where he belongs. Economical has a look off his solid third place effort that produced a career top number two races back over this track and distance. Overmatched last time out in a hot sprint vs. first-level allowance state-bred runners, the son of Tiz a Minister should go much better at this distance facing this company. Missed Call has back numbers that fit nicely in this league, so after being freshened since mid-February, adding blinkers, and dropping significantly in class, the son of Dialed In has every right to be a factor. Big Swede has enough early speed to put his rail post position to good use and that combined with the always dangerous blinkers off angle makes him usable. He’s a second-off-the-claim play for trainer Vladmir Cerin and seems likely to improve following am inexplicable fourth place trouncing (beaten 12 lengths) when favored at this level last time out.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Cryptoholic
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Cryptoholic, a first-time gelding in his first start since being claimed for $50,000 out of a quickish sprint as a maiden by Jeff Mullins, returns for that same price while stretching out in this nine furlong turf event and seems highly likely to improve for his new barn. The son of Creative Cause projects to draft into an ideal pace stalking/prompting trip and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on from the quarter pole home. Switching to good grass rider Hector Berrios, he’s 5-1 on the morning line and offers reasonable value at anywhere near that price. In a grass grab bag in which nothing would surprise, let’s take a stand and use this sophomore gelding as a win play and rolling exotic single.
