“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 12-Baby’s Dream; 3-Unwhirled
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Baby’s Dream gets the worst of the draw for her first start in more than a year but in a modest maiden claiming turf miler the daughter of Declaration of War should have a reasonable look at 5-1 on the morning line. She’s a first-time Lasix user for new trainer Vladmir Cerin in her first outing in a seller and her form in two races vs. straight maidens wasn’t terrible, so with a solid series of works that includes a noteworthy :59 2/5 breeze last month at Del Mar she may have upside the others don’t. We’ll put her on top while also including Unwhirled, another with the first time-for-a-tag angle and with back numbers that make her a solid fit at this level.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Breakfast Ride; 3-Holden the Lute
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Breakfast Ride got really good at Del Mar with a pair of sharp, highly rated wins and today moves up a notch on the class scale while returning to a main track he’s proven he can handle. Not a need-the-lead type but doubly tough if not pressured early, the John Sadler-trained son of Distorted Humor seems capable of handling this class hike, so we’ll put him on top over the other main player, Holden the Lute. The genuine and consistent gelding is every bit as fast on figures as ‘Ride and likely will enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Breakfast Ride (Oct. 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B
Caught him from the half mile pole to the wire in :23 flat and :48 flat, asked mildly through the lane over deepish track. Holds his form, should be competitive once again on the raise.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Cuban Crisis; 1-Laura Mars; 9-Real Fire
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s a messy six furlong turf sprint over the flat course for older fillies and mares that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Cuban Crisis flopped twice as the favorite last winter before being stopped on; hopefully, she returns better than she left. The Phil D’Amato-trained import hasn’t done anything flashy in the a.m. but sports a healthy, steady work tab and shows numbers that make her a fit in this below average affair. At 5-1 on the morning line, she’s as good as any. Laura Mars is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail draw, and if she can secure a clear path the daughter of Elusive Quality has a legitimate look despite returning from an eighth month vacation. A series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs look decent on paper and the barn has good stats with layoff runners, so at 6-1 on the morning line she has to be used. Real Fire has run well over this course and distance in the past, and really won’t have to improve much to be a major player in what is just her fourth career start. She’s another at a decent price (8-1) that may be capable of springing a surprise.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Riley G
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress so it would appear Riley G is well-spotted for a debut win in this moderate dash for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Flatter brought $625,000 at the OBS June Sale, where she smoked a furlong in :09 4/5, fastest in the sale, and while she was asked hard to accomplish the quick final time she was impressive, nonetheless. Based on a team gate drill with stable mate California Rocket (see below), she looks the better of the two Bob Baffert first timers, but at 9/5 on the morning line she’ll probably not offer a great deal of value. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
Notable Workouts:
Riley G (Oct. 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, gate work outside California Rocket (same time) and was the better of the two without undue pressure for B. Baffert, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :47.3 and 1:00.2 on our watches, a couple of ticks slower than given but decent enough for the expensive ($625,000) daughter of Flatter. Should be plenty fit by now and looks very live at first asking. Workmate wasn’t particularly quick leaving the gate but moved up inside to be head-and-head for a half before being put to some pressure and winding up a neck or so behind.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Going to Vegas; 7-Family Way; 2-Fluffy Socks
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Going to Vegas seems certain to inherit the role as the controlling speed and won this very same Grade-1 race last year in gate-to-wire fashion. The Phil D’Amato-trained mare didn’t get the best of runs when third in the John C. Mabee S.-G1 at Del Mar last month, but she has been first or second in 11 of 14 career starts over the Santa Anita turf course and is more than capable handling this field with her best effort. Eastern shipper Family Way has finished in the frame in her last six outings – all graded stakes events – but is winless since April. The Brandan Walsh-trained mare is a one-paced grinding type that would prefer to lay fairly close to the pace, and in race that projects to have modest early fractions it would behoove Mike Smith to put her in the race early. Fluffy Socks, four times second but winless in five 2022 starts, has been knocking on the door without quite entering. This is her best chance to secure her first victory of the year and she should have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Truthfully, any one of the three listed above can win.
Notable Workouts:
Going to Vegas (Oct. 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B+
Solo breezing drill on training track for P. D’Amato, slow early but strong through the lane while strictly on her own, splits of :25 flat, :37 flat and 1:00.3, quite sharp. Looks cranked up for a major effort in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1, a race she won last year.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Huntingcoco; 7-Justique
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We loved the way Huntingcoco won at first asking, but a class hike into Grade-1 company while stretching out after just won sprint is a daunting task for the daughter of Practical Joke. Maybe she’s good enough to pull it off, especially with the switch to outstanding speed rider E. Maldonado, who almost certainly will employ gate-to-wire tactics. At 7/2 on the morning line, we’ll give her a very slight edge over Justique, the visually impressive debut sprint winner at Del Mar that shows the identical pattern (maiden sprint winner stretching out) that our top selections does. Basically, we’re using the best speed with the best closer and hope that at least one of them performs up to expectations.
Notable Workouts:
Huntingcoco (Sept. 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Strong solo move for B. Baffert, splits of :24 flat, :35.3 and 1:00.2 on our watches, very light coaxing only. Hard to say for sure if she will handle a distance of ground off just one sprint, but if she makes the lead without being pressured the daughter of Practical Joke will take some catching.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-D D S Express; 3-Multi Platinum; 5-Street Art
Backups/savers: 9-Forgiving Spirit
Forecast: This first-level allowance sprint is a difficult affair offering several possibilities. You probably should spread as deeply as your budget allows. Let’s go for a big price putting D D S Express on top. The lightly raced son of Vronsky is bred to move up considerably in his first career start on grass, and his numbers are gradually rising, so at 15-1 on the morning line there is plenty of long shot value to be found. Multi Platinum is re-equipped with blinkers and like our top pick is trying grass for the first time. He switches to leading pilot Juan Hernandez, is fast enough on numbers to win, and with just four prior starts has plenty of room for further development. Street Art, a $40,000 Bill Spawr claim, is winless in seven starts on turf but for his new connections the son of Street Boss could easily produce a forward move. He’s a 3-year-old tackling older but should be forwardly placed in a race that projects to have soft fractions, so at 6-1 he’s enticing. Forgiving Spirit finished with interest in a solid five furlong grass dash at Del Mar last time out. He has numbers that put him right there and with a break in the weights the Peter Miller-trained gelding deserves consideration as a backup or a saver.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Cave Rock; 8-Hejazi
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Cave Rock is the legitimate odds-on favorite in this year’s renewal of the American Pharoah S.-G1 after a pair of scintillating Del Mar wins including the Del Mar Futurity-G1, with both victories producing powerful speed figures. As a son of Arrogate, the Bob Baffert-trained colt projects to be even better around two turns and with a victory today could earn himself favoritism in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 at Keeneland next month. The one he may have to fear most is his stable mate Hejazi, a Bernardini colt with the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and a triple digit Beyer earned when second in the track record-setting race won by Speed Boat Beach. Purchased for in excess of $3.3 million at the Timonium sale in May, he seems certain to improve with experience and distance and is the most dangerous of the closing types in a race with sufficient early speed to compliment his style.
Notable Workouts:
Hejazi (Oct. 1, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
Outside >b>Carmel Road (same time), breezing to the wire in :35 flat and :59.2 before drawing clear with authority while continuing out to seven furlong pole in 1:12.2, very sharp and quite Impressive. Have to think he will improve a bunch with distance, experience, and maturity.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Turn On The Jets
Backups/savers: 3-Rip City
Forecast: We loved the way Turn On The Jets quickened when room developed a furlong from home in his highly rated first level allowance turf score at Del Mar in August and the Irish-bred gelding seems certain to step forward on the raise following a very impressive training track breeze six days ago. The Phil D’Amato-trained sophomore has a chance to move right up the ladder and at 4-1 on the morning line offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Rip City is too much of a pro to dismiss, so we’ll use him on a ticket or two as a backup or a saver.
Notable Workouts:
Turn On The Jets (Oct. 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off a length in front insideAmy C (5f, 1:01h TT) and finished a neck the best at the wire while under stout restraint every step of the way and able to go much faster if permitted. Won his U.S. debut in clever fashion at Del Mar and looks even better now than he did then. Tough on the raise for P. D’Amato.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference: 5-Hawk of War
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Hawk of War seems well-placed for a repeat score in this highly contentious middle distance turf allowance optional claimer that completes the card. The Bob Hess, Jr.-trained gelding makes his first start following a $50,000 claim out of a nice win at Kentucky Downs last month and is logically returned to the same level while seeking some of that extremely valuable ship and win money. Based on speed figures, he’s strictly the one to beat, so we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 7/2.
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