July 26, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The Wednesday opener is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Silk Trade; 1-Lastchanceatglory
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: Silk Trade was a $62,500 claim in April and returns in a $40,000 seller for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, who uses this class drop maneuver often and with a fair amount of success (he’s 21% with the first off the claim angle). You’re always guessing with the condition of the claiming horse, and it’s possible the veteran gelding, despite having won his last pair, has gone south after remaining in the barn for three months. If healthy, he’ll obviously be tough to beat. Lastchanceatglory has been claimed in each of his last nine starts (is that some kind of record?) but was a voided sale for $32,000 in his most recent start. Linda Rice, who had him three races back, raises him a notch, so she must think he’s okay. A winner of three of his last four starts and with strong numbers for the level, the son of Goldencents is the one to fear most. Tread lightly here.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Gram; 10-Inca Mummy
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Gram should have been unsaddled in her last race when facing similar state-bred fillies sprinting on grass. The daughter of Maclean’s Music was off slowly from the rail, moved up to be within range but was shut off on the turn, regained her momentum in the lane and finished with good courage but simply had too much to do. If she can avoid trouble today, she should beat this field at a price most likely lower than her morning line of 2-1. Inca Mummy has breezed well enough for her debut to deserve a reasonable look at first asking. At 5-1 on the morning line and with the barn’s “go-to” rider Luis Saez taking the call, she could turn up a live item.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Echo Zulu
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Echo Zulu made her seasonal debut at Churchill Downs in late May and crushed her outclassed rivals in the Winning Colors S.-G3 while on the pace throughout. She’s a bit quicker early then her chief rival Frank’s Rockette and that, along with her perfect 2-for-2 record over the Saratoga main track, makes her the one to beat in in this year’s renewal of the four runner Honorable Miss Handicap. You can make her a short priced rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Quality G
Backups/Savers/Underneath: St. Joe Louis.
Forecast: Quality G shows up in a seller for the first time while obviously being culled from the stable (realistically so) and looks to have found his friends in this $35,000 middle distance turf event over the inner course. His comeback was disappointing, but the early splits were hot, and the race flow probably cooked him. His numbers from last year when facing considerably better foes should be more than good enough to beat this restricted (nw-2) group.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Athena Beach; 1-Ichiban
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Athena Beach seeks her third straight win has numbers that fit on this circuit at this level. The Penn National shipper has been in front at the first call in all four of her career starts but we suspect stalk and pounce strategy will be employed in this nine furlong main track state bred event due to another committed speed type being drawn inside of her. That filly, Ichiban, almost certainly will be sent from the bell from her rail draw while stretching out again after a clever seven furlong maiden score here two weeks ago. Her numbers are rising, her form is improving, and the Linda Rice barn hits at 27% with the sprint-to-route angle. The daughter of Street Sense is the likely choice and one to beat.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Our Shot; 8-Arrest Me Red
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Let’s go with the progressive Kantharos sprinter Our Shot to beat the proven turf pro Arrest Me Red in this third level allowance dash while including both in our rolling exotic play. ‘Shot missed at odds-on in the Get Serious Stakes at Monmouth Park last month but earned a strong speed figure while well clear of a next out winner, and a similar performance today – or a repeat of his winning race before last – should be good enough to get the John Terranova-trained gelding home. He has proven to be effective on the pace or from a mid-pack stalking position so Luis Saez can assess the race flow (which projects to be soft) and choose a strategy. ‘Red will race with Lasix for the first time in his 15 race career and certainly is eligible to improve for that reason alone. He’s been a winner of just one race from eight starts in the past couple of years while facing the best in his division and this drop into the allowance ranks certainly could perk him up. Also, he was a stakes winner over this course and distance two years ago.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Amanda’s Folly; 1-Cinderella’s Cause; 5-Sweet Mystery.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Amanda’s Folly lost a toughie when worn down late in a one-turn miler at this level at Belmont Park earlier this month (she was four lengths clear of the rest) but at this nine furlong distance the Linda Rice-trained filly looks likely to inherit a cozy stalking early position and then have her chance to kick on when given here cue. Cinderella’s Cause lands the rail and could be quite dangerous with a loose-on-the-lead trip. Sweet Mystery missed at 70 cents on the dollar when a no-excuse third in the same race ‘Folly exits. She has races that make her competitive but has never really been one to trust.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Avenue Niel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Elle Est Forte; 10-I’m So Sorry.
Forecast: Avenue Niel makes her U.S. debut in this mini-marathon turf affair for first level allowance fillies and mares and based on her French form the Christophe Clement-trained import should outclass this field. Listed stakes placed at Longchamp when last seen 11 months ago, the Irish-bred filly gets Lasix, has run well fresh in the past, and is proven at the trip. The stable has powerful stats with layoff runners, so we’re going to assume that she’s fit and ready. We’ll make her a win play at or near her morning line of 5/2 and give her the main push in the various rolling exotics.
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Vince the Prince; 8-Conquist; 11-Your Mission
Backups/savers: 4-English Storm
Forecast: The finale is a maiden claiming turf router. We’ll go three deep and hope that’s sufficient. Vince the Prince drops out of straight maiden races and should find this group much more to his liking. He’s a fit on speed figures and projects to settle into a comfortable stalking position and have every chance from there. Conquist finished a reasonable second in a similar spot at Belmont Park earlier this month and not much more will be needed to graduate today. The main concern is that he’s already had 11 chances. Your Mission has finished in the frame in his two, but his numbers have remained about the same. He’ll be doing his best work from far back.
