July 19, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The Wednesday opener is the A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap, a Grade-1 event for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Cloud Forest; 3-Happy Bob
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The two morning line favorites will get the bulk of the play in this maiden $40,000 main track miler. Cloud Forest (7/5) drops to his lowest level ever and seems well-spotted to earn his diploma in his seventh career start. He is superior on speed figures to Happy Bob (8/5), but the latter is a first-off-the-claim play for Linda Rice (a massive 27% with this angle), who took the Runhappy gelding for this price out of a moderate third place performance in a sprint at Belmont Park in late May and today attracts “go-to” rider Jose Ortiz. Improvement is almost assured. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise skip.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Maddie’s Grace
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Maddie’s Grace (6/5 on the morning line) broke her maiden sprinting on turf at Aqueduct in April while earning good figure and then stayed on willingly to be second in a solid performance at this level in mid-May at Belmont Park. A repeat of either one of those two races in this starter allowance abbreviated grass dash for fillies and mares will be good enough for a return to the winner’s circle. The switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr. certainly doesn’t hurt. A complete standout on speed figures, the daughter of Hard Spun is a logical short-priced, no value, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Back Ring Luck/2b-Musical Heart
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Dontbelate
Forecast: Owner/trainer David Jacobson has two strong entrants in this bottom-rung $10,000 claiming main track miler but we suspect one will scratch. Back Ring Luck nosedives in class following a starter’s allowance win at Delaware Park and three races back he was out photo’d in a $50,000 seller at Belmont Park. With Irad Ortiz, Jr., taking the call, he’ll logically be odds-on if he can pass the pre-race vet. Stable mate Musical Heart clearly is off form, but he has won over the Saratoga main track in the past and is a former stakes winner now racing cheap. Against this group he might perk up. The other legit player in the race is Dontbelate, a winner of three of his last four starts but from a low percentage outfit and a voided claim out of a six length romp at this level in mid-May. Best advice is to tread lightly, or simply sit it out.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Excess Demand; 3-Run Smitty Run
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Excess Demand, a former $400,000 yearling buy, won a maiden claiming $10,000 event in his second career start in mid-May at Monmouth Park by nine lengths with a good number, but after being ambitiously raised to the $50,000 level in his most recent outing in which he displayed speed but faded readily he’s back facing cheap types in this main track restricted $16,000 claiming miler. The Chad Brown-trained son of Candy Ride projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking/prompting trip outside and then have his chance to kick on when asked for his best. Run Smitty Run has a look against this group off his easy five length maiden $40,000 win two races back at the Big A. He was a non-factor on turf in a restricted (nw-2) $30,000 seller last time out but with this class drop and a return to dirt he should be reasonably competitive.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Ilikefunsize; 7-Ginuccha
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ilikefunsize was given too much to do after being knocked back at the start to trail her rivals but then put together an extended run to finish strongly behind Wine on Tap to finish an eager runner-up in an excellent debut effort last month at Belmont Park. The barn has superior stats with the second time starter angle (26%) so we’re expecting the Laurel Park-based daughter of Upstart to graduate in this restricted maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies. Hopefully, she can leave cleanly and secure a reasonable early position. Ginuccha is a sneaky first timer shipping in from Parx. The barn is powerful with debut runners (29%) and daughter of the promising first crop stallion Maximum Mischief lands Irad Ortiz, Jr., so we suspect she’ll turn up a live item.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Collaboration; 9-Im Just Kiddin
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Lisa’s Vision; 8-Toolcat
Forecast: This grass grab bag requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go four deep and hope that will be sufficient to survive and advance. Collaboration is a progressive filly with a pair of recent first place finishes (disqualified two races back) to rate top billing in this second level state-bred allowance affair. The Linda Rice-trained filly has good tactical speed and should be able to adjust to any pace scenario. Genuine and consistent and never off the board in five career grass outings, she is quite likely to fire another big shot today. Im Just Kiddin was awarded the win when crossing the wire second behind our top pick in late May and should be somewhere in the fray once again. She can be trouble prone and a tough ride, but if she can get some cover early and relax, the daughter of Justify has the ability to win.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Sixtythreecalibur
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Gerrymander
Forecast: Sixtythreecalibur exits a series of much stronger stakes races and has recent speed figures that are stronger than par for this three-other-than allowance condition. The Gun Runner filly will greatly appreciate the class relief in this main track miler for fillies and mares and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, stalking position. She’s the legitimate 8/5 morning line favorite and may go a bit lower.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Cadencia
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Anna Karenine; 8-Flatfooted
Forecast: Cadencia has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, and after being worn down late over a mile at Belmont Park last time out she shortens in trip and projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking position. She’s always been happier finishing second (seven times) than winning (twice) but that record might be nothing more than a function of being raced at distances longer than she really prefers. The abbreviated dash seems perfect for her style.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Mz Big Bucks
Backups/savers: 1-Red Moon
Forecast: Mz Big Bucks just wired a similar field over seven furlongs on turf at Belmont Park and today will try to do the same when stretching out to a two-turn mile for the first time. She easily projects as the controlling speed once again and her pedigree suggests today’s trip should be well within her range, so at 5/2 on the morning line the daughter of War Dancer looks like a logical win play and a main push in the various rolling exotics.
For a video analysis of this race, click this link: New York Stallion Series Stakes
