“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade:
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Fast Buck Freddy; 7-Flying in Style
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Flying in Style and Fast Buck Freddy finished third and fifth respectively in their debut in the same race at Belmont Park in early June and both return in this maiden special weight six furlong sprint for New York-bred older maidens. Both are expected to produce a forward move, but ‘Freddy hails from a stable that excels with this angle (24%, strong ROI) and therefore gets the edge on top. The Jorge Abreu-trained son of Fast Anna picks up Flavian Prat, and in a field without much early zip should inherit a good stalking spot behind ‘Style – the logical pacesetter – and then have every chance to wear that one down when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Chess Master; 1-Chuck Willis
Backups/savers/Underneath: 7-After Five.
Forecast: The two main players in this $32,000 claiming turf sprint will leave from the preferred inside lanes. Chuck Lewis will have to contend with Lyrical Poet right from the bell and if these two hook up the race shape should complement the stalk-and-pounce style of Chess Master, who arrives from Horseshoe Indianapolis fresh from a highly rated second level allowance win. The concern is the class drop off that score and the barn’s poor record so far this meeting, but if he shoes up with his best stuff the veteran gelding can add to his lifetime total which currently stands at 14 career wins. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Olympic Dreams; 1-Shadow Dragon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Olympic Dreams is narrowly preferred over Shadow Dragon in this nine furlong, main track allowance optional claimer. ‘Dragon has improving speed figures and a good second flight stalking tyle, while ‘Dream actually is a bit faster on numbers, has a bit more tactical speed, and exits a state-bred stakes race when narrowly missing in late May at Belmont Park. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Belvoir
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This inner turf maiden affair for state-bred juvenile fillies is an exercise in educated guessing. Belvoir, a first timer from the Christophe Clement barn, was a $105,000 OBS April sale purchase after breezing a furlong in the preview session in 10 2/5 seconds. That clocking is nothing out of the ordinary, but she did display a nice, long stride, and her pedigree suggests she should be able to handle grass. The barn is solid with first time starters, and based on that fact that Joel Rosario rides this filly and not the other Clement entrant (Once an Eagle) leads us to believe that she is better of the two. In a race in which nothing would surprise, let’s go with the daughter of Flameway as our top pick and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 5/2.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Miss M M; 5-Home for Christmas
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Miss M M lands the rail and may try gate-to-wire tactics in this resetricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming two-turn turf affair for fillies and mares. She doesn’t need the lead to win but with aggressive tactics the daughter of Protonico could be especially dangerous as the controlling speed. Home For Christmas looks like the one to fear most, her low percentage connections notwithstanding. First or second in three of four career outings over the Saratoga lawn, she can be a one paced grinder at times but against this group the Greg DiPrimo-trained mare can be dangerous from off the pace with any kind of help up front.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Lord Captain
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Bear Oak.
Forecast: Lord Captain remains protected in starter allowance company by trainer Linda Rice in a sign of confidence. Claimed for $40,000 two runs back, the son of Lord Nelson stretches out to a mile and one-quarter and should enjoy an ideal stalking trip from his outside post and have every chance to handle the classic American distance. Though he had his four race winning streak snapped last time out when going down by a half-length, he actually earned a career top speed figure in doing so, and anything close to that today should make him difficult to handle.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Technical Analysis; 6-Regal Realm
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Technical Analysis missed at 2/5 when facing similar company in the Perfect Sting Stakes at Belmont Park last month in her first outing since October. She had a right to be a tad short but won’t have that excuse today. The Chad Brown-trained mare is proven over the course (four starts, three wins) and should have every chance to make amends in this year’s renewal of the restricted De La Rose Stakes for fillies and mares. She prefers the front end but likely will sit just off the committed front runner Evvie Jets and then try to go by that one in the final furlong, something she simply could not do in the Perfect Sting. Royal Realm has won her last three, including the Lady Canterbury Stakes in June, with authority. She’s not as fast on numbers as ‘Analysis but is improving and dangerous and should be used on your ticket at 5-1 on the morning.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Kaufmaker; 2-Scotish Star
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Mail Order.
Forecast: Kaufymaker projects to enjoy a soft stalking trip outside in this allowance optional claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares and looks capable of winning on the raise after a strong score at Churchill Downs at this same five and one-half furlong trip in late May. She’s fast on figures with room for further development, so we’ll go with the Wesley Ward-trained daughter of Jimmy Creed and hope to get close to her 4-1 morning line. Scotish Star has never been one to trust – she’s been beaten as the favorite four times in the 10 starts she’s had since arriving from Argentina – but this turn back from a series of route attempts makes her intriguing, especially with the switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr. If ridden patiently, she could produce a serious late kick.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Vax: 4-Baby Sox
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Vax was claimed for $40,000 by Linda Rice last month, finished a distant third, and today resurfaces for $16,000 to face a field he will handle if she’s anywhere close to being right. She’ll have to pass the morning vet exam first. Baby Sox is the top pick if Vax stays in the barn. Her sharp drop in class following a poor dirt sprint outing at Belmont Park last month is less suspicious; she was claimed for $20,000 in March and has a winning performance for her current connections on her resume. This is where she belongs.
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