Jerff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Saratoga – 8/14/24
Saratoga 4th Race – Post: 2:52 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 5-Helcia.
Other Contenders:3-Cost Containment; 7-Islander; 1-Lord I Wonder
Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive maiden dirt affair over a mile for older fillies and mares. Carryover Pick-6 players may want to go four deep with the main contenders listed above; small players, needing to cut their ticket down can opt to single our top selection, Helcia. Though she’s been away since November, the daughter of Bernardini displayed enough ability during her juvenile season to handle this field based on her rapidly rising speed figures in a three race campaign. A strong runner-up while more than seven lengths clear of the rest in her final outing before being turned out, she has the perfect, stalking style for this distance and recent workouts that should have her fit and ready. The C. Brown-trained filly, purchased at auction for $600,000 a year ago March, gets Lasix and F. Prat, and projects to be ideally spotted on or near the lead in a field without much zip, so she should have no excuses. She’s listed at 7/2 on the morning line, an enticing number in a seven runner affair if you can get it.
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Saratoga 6th race – Post: 4:00 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 5-Annascual.
Other Contenders: 7-Young at Heart; 8-Mischief Lady, 1-Cara’s Dreamweaver.
Forecast: Maiden juvenile fillies sprint on turf in this challenging affair that offers eight first time starters among the 10 that drew into the body of the race. Annascaul is a smooth mover, a good athlete, and based on her morning drills capable of producing a dangerous late kick, so she’ll be our top pick. The daughter of American Pharoah caught the eye when proving best in a team drill on grass six weeks ago but has breezed exclusively on dirt since, so it’s interesting that trainer C. Clement opted for a turf sprint to launch her career. We’re not sure how much quickness she’ll display during the early stages of today’s affair, but we’re fairly confident that she’ll be heard from in the run through the lane. Most of the first timers from this barn perform better than their workout times, so at 3-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
