“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Price is Truth
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Instamatic.
Forecast: Maiden New York-bred juveniles sprint five and one-half furlongs in the Thursday opener. Price is Truth is a good-looking son of Union Rags with a work tab that catches the eye. His breeze July 20 was accomplished with ease and power – View Workout – and was much more impressive than the moderate final time might indicate. The Christophe Clement trained colt is plenty fit for a stable that has solid stats with first time starters, so at 7/2 on the morning line he’s our top pick and major push in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Lady Jasmine; 2-Miss San Gabriel; 7-Anileate
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Lady Jasmine shows up in a restricted ($50,000) seller in her first start for a tag and seems to have found a proper spot to regain her winning form. She has recent speed figures that are good enough to be effective at this level and also has a prior victory over the Saratoga turf course, so while she’s clearly a one-paced grinder the daughter of Cairo Prince looks capable of tagging the leaders close home. Miss San Gabriel won a maiden special weight grass affair gate-to-wire at Pimlico in her most recent effort while getting away with a very soft pace. Based on speed figures, this is where she belongs, but she may be a need-the-lead type, so front-running tactics most likely will be attempted again. Anileate ran well when second in a starter allowance affair at Belmont Park last time out and based on the speed figure she earned the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile is a solid contender. However, she’s burned money in the past and is not really one to trust. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-It Takes Heart; 7-Candy Caramel
Backups/savers/Underneath: 2-Arella Star.
Forecast: It Takes Heart plummets from stakes company at Gulfstream Park to this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming sprint but there is nothing suspicious about the class drop; this is where she belongs. She has good stalking speed and projects to have every chance to achieve her preferred trip based on the projected race flow. Candy Caramel, in the frame in her last five starts, figures to fire another good shot and is a “must use.” She’s not particularly quick early and will have to do her best work from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Vitaemi; 2-Beautiful Karen; 6-Meraviglioso
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’ll spread the fourth race, a $16,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Vitaemi is a Parx invader with numbers that fit and if she break sharply from the gate the David Jacobson-trained mare could grab control early and never look back. She’s won 12 races from 60 career starts, an admirable resume, but this will be her first start at the Spa. Beautiful Karen returns to her claim level and likely will have a strong pace presence throughout. If she hooks up with Vitaemi, the race could easily set up for Meraviglioso, a closer who has been chasing tougher of late and whose speed figures are as good as any in the field. The Richard Dutrow barn is off to a very slow start at the meeting, so don’t be surprised if you see a bunch class droppers – just like this filly – in the coming days or weeks.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Verionica Greene; 4-Pleasant Passage
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Beaute Cachee.
Forecast: Veronica Greene was a solid second in a similar spot at Belmont Park last month and today adds blinkers while getting a bit more ground to work with. The Chad Brown-trained daughter of Tapit is solid on numbers and ran very well when second over the local lawn last year. Pleasant Passage is another putting on blinkers for the first time after finishing a good third in the same race ‘Greene exits. A winner on debut on grass here last year, she’s only had five starts (with two wins) and may have a tad more upside than ‘Greene. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Kant Call It; 1-Poseidon’s Mist
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Focus Pocus.
Forecast: Kant Call It has displayed excellent speed in recent drills – View Workout – while being hard held and looking very much like a win-early type. Obviously bred for much speed (Kantharos), the Christophe Clement-trained filly is listed at 5-1 on the morning line in this state-bred dash and we’ll be happy to gamble at that price if we can get it. Poseidon’s Mist is another that has done some good work in the morning, first at Monmouth Park and then here at Saratoga. The barn has superb stats with the first time starter angle, so we’ll be surprised if this bred homebred filly isn’t highly competitive.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Tartini; 5-Eyes On Target; 8-Tommy Bee
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 11-Speedy Hans.
Forecast: Tartini was out of his element in the Belmont Gold Cup-G3 but is a strong contender today with this class drop to the $25,000 claiming level. Though he has been trying marathons lately, this middle distance affair may better suit him. He’s one of several in the field that can win with anything close to their best. Eyes On Target picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. and should be dangerous from off the pace. He has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level. Tommy Bee has finished first or second in seven of 11 career starts and has been facing better in all of his recent starts. He’ll enjoy the class relief and is a major contender in his first outing since mid-May for Brad Cox.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Next
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Next is arguably the best main track marathoner in North America, and after trouncing a better field in the Brooklyn S.-G2 last month the son of Not This Time will be odds-on to do the same against six rivals in this year’s edition of the Birdstone S. over a mile and three-quarters. He’ll likely have to settle for a stalking trip rather than as the controlling speed with Sea Form in the field, but it shouldn’t matter. He’s a logical no value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Space Launch; 7-Dripping Gold; 4-Pioneering Spirit
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Onenightstandards; 5-Good Skate.
Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for second level allowance mini marathoners. There’s not much pace signed on, which gives Space Launch a golden opportunity from the rail to establish the running and wire the field if his connections opt for that strategy. The son of Bernardini is reunited with Joel Rosario, who has gotten good run out of him in the past, so let’s put the Christophe Clement-trained gelding on top. Dripping Gold is hard knocker with good prior from over the Saratoga turf course. His best puts him right there. Pioneering Spirit has won his last two starts in clever fashion, though on numbers he’ll probably need a bit of improvement to extend the streak. It’s hard to gauge how he’ll handle the three-turn trip, and as a deep closer his style might be compromised by slow fractions, but given his current form we have to use him.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Sosua Summer; 7-Souper Quest; 8-Famous Gent
Backups/savers: 3-Awesome Native.
Forecast: Sosua Summer is fast on numbers and a perfect one-for-one over this Saratoga course and distance. The Summer Front colt employs and effective stalking style and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail post position. Souper Quest won at first asking when facing moderate Florida-bred foes at Gulfstream Park last December but earned a number that makes him competitive at this level. If ready, he’ll be dangerous in his first start with Lasix under Irad Ortiz, Jr. Famous Gent should be a late threat and probably is too big of a number at 12-1 on the morning line. Toss him in somewhere.
