“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Little Prankster; 2-Feathering
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Sister Maha
Forecast: Little Prankster has done nothing but burn money in her first three career starts, finishing second in each outing as the favorite, the last two at odds-on. She adds blinkers today, so maybe that will help. Turning back to a sprint off a nine-furlong affair at Ellis Park in late June, the daughter of Practical Joke certainly is plenty fit, and based on numbers she should be able to graduate today, untrustworthy as she may be, unless one of the first timers is a hot shot. Feathering has put together a decent work tab for Bill Mott (just fair stats with debut runners) and might be able to run a bit, so we’ll toss her for protection.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Walstib; 7-Antonio of Venice
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Restricted (must have sold or been bought back for $50,000 at auction) maiden 2-year-olds sprint five and one-half furlongs in this main track dash. Walstib is a first timer from the Ken McPeek barn with a decent series of drills to have him fit and ready in a race containing no apparent world beaters. A July 13 gate drill in :48 1/5 was nice – View Workout Video –
while much the best of a team) and should have him cranked up and ready. Antonio of Vernice was scratched last weekend for this easier spot and is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite following a couple of in-the-money runs at Belmont Park that earned decent speed figures. A good colt likely will be beat him but with blinkers being added he’ll have every right to produce a forward move.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Destin’s Mission; 3-Heymackit’sjack
Backups/savers/Underneath: 7-Sugar Gray Leonard
Forecast: Here’s a challenging grass sprint for starter allowance ($50,000) older horses that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Lightly raced and improving Destin’s Mission had a couple of sharp recent runs at Monmouth Park and should be quite competitive on this circuit. His best chance is to pop the gate from his outside draw and outrun the other speed types. Heymackit’sjack has plenty of zip, too, and just won a restricted (nw-2) 30,000 seller at Belmont Park in gate-to-wire style but was a voided claim out of the race. He’s protected today by trainer John Kimmel, so we’ll assume he’s okay.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Pretty Xtreme
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-With This Vow
Forecast: Pretty Xtreme, away for more than three months, shows up in a $32,000 seller, the first time she’s reappeared for a tag after beating a $40,000 field the day Brad Cox took her at Churchill Downs last September. This is a realistic spot for the veteran mare, who has always been fairly dependable (first or second in 14 of 30 career starts) when she’s in good form. Her recent work tab at Ellis Park is healthy and should have her ready to fire a big shot off the bench. However, at even money on the morning line, she will not be offering any wagering value.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Rock Star Boy; 3-Crazy Mason; 1-Crown the Saint
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Cowboy Luke; 7-Run Jalen Run
Forecast: Rock Star Boy ran reasonably well in his debut at Belmont Park when second without mishap in a five-runner affair for maiden juveniles last month. He should enjoy clear sailing from his outside draw and appears the best of a modest lot in this split of the second race. Crazy Mason finished a willing second in a slow heat on debut at Monmouth Park in mid-June. He’s another that should step forward a bit with that race under his belt, and with blinkers being added he might display a bit more early zip. Crown the Saint attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr. for his debut, and on that angle alone you have to toss him in somewhere. There are several other first timers in the field with win-early breeding that could outrun their works, so tread lightly.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Lamorna
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Kodiac Wintergreen; 9-Gemofaperformance; 10-Ever So Sweet
Forecast: There are several possibilities in this stronger-than-par maiden juvenile turf sprint, including Lamorna, who was hard held and under wraps while proving much best in a half mile team breeze five days ago, earning a clocking of :48 1/5 that could have been much faster if she had permitted to show her stuff – View Workout Video. The daughter of Munnings was purchased for $320,000 as a yearling at Keeneland and is out of the New York-bred stakes winning race mare Freudie Anne, so a big effort first time out should be expected. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, the Bill Mott-trained filly offers excellent value in the win pool. The ones listed above as backups/savers have good credentials as well and should be included somewhere on your ticket.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Spirit of St Louis
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Agent Creed
Forecast: Spirit of St Louis crushed a non-winners of two allowance state-bred field last month at Belmont Park in eye-opening fashion, rallying against creepy crawler fractions with a superior turn of foot to win going away like a gelding with a huge future. Successful in two of his first three starts, the son of Medaglia d’Oro moves up a rung on the allowance ladder and should be tough again, especially if he can get any help up front. However, at even money on the morning line, there isn’t a whole lot we can do with him other than to use him as a no value rolling exotic single.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Mosienko; 3-Knowing Glance; 2-Know It All Aubrey
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The three main contenders in this seven furlong starter allowance ($20,000) for fillies and mares are drawn inside. Mosienko has seen considerably stronger foes in her last pair and simply was in too deep, but this realistic class drop (while still being protected) looks like a winning maneuver. First or second in four of seven starts over the Saratoga main track, the veteran daughter of Hat Trick should inherit a stalking trip from her inside draw and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. Knowing Glance is a tad light in the speed figure department but was visually pleasing in a recent Monmouth Park starter allowance score and looks to have the perfect second flight style for this seven furlong trip. She’ll need to step forward a bit but could easily have it in her. Know It All Aubrey is the quickest in the field and will take them as far as she can.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ari Gold
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Exact Estimate; 10-Chasing the Crown
Forecast: Ari Gold won the Pulpit Stakes two turning on grass last December in convincing fashion on the front end at Gulfstream Park but then disappeared. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt returns in this second level allowance middle distance grass event facing older rivals, but if he comes back as well as he left he can pick right up where he left off at 4-1 on the morning line. Likely to be the controlling speed from his good inside draw, the son of Medaglia d’Oro colt retains “win rider” Luis Saez in his first outing with Lasix and shows a recent work tab that should have him fit enough.
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Ramblin’ Wreck
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Five of the eight probable starters in this New York Stallion Series Stakes over a mile on the inner course exit the same race won by Ramblin’ Wreck, who accelerated into the teeth of a slow pace to win over seven furlongs last month at Belmont Park. Today’s event is around two turns, but it shouldn’t matter to the Danny Gargan-trained gelding, who has shown he can easily handle the added ground. A repeat of his last race against essentially this same bunch should be more than good enough for a repeat score.
