July 18, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Saratoga
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Saratoga 5th Race – Post: 3:27 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 7-Iridescent
Other Contenders: 3- Squints; 8-Sweet Soddy J
Forecast: Trainer B. Cox has a remarkable record with the first-off-the-claim stat according to DRF (47% with a massive ROI) so it stands to reason that his recent $50,000 purchase Iridescent will be very live right back for that same price in this extended main track sprint in a race restricted to 3-year-olds. First or second in six of 10 career starts, the son of City of Light has good tactical speed and projects to find himself in an ideal stalking early position and then have every chance to pounce and go when set down by M. Franco, one of the barn’s “go-to” riders. He has several back speed figures that are good enough to win at this level, and after a brief freshening since mid-May should be cranked up for a major effort thanks to a steady, healthy series of recent drills. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, the lightly raced sophomore will offer good value at that price, if you can get it.
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Saratoga 6th Race – Post: 4:02 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 5-Will Rein.
Other Contenders: 3-Gathered, 10-Brindi (Ire).
Forecast: This turf sprint for juveniles has several first time starters in the field, with at least three appearing cranked up and ready. Will Reign has been visually quite pleasing in his morning drills leading up to this race, including a recent solo breeze accomplished with ease and athleticism, and it will be quite surprising if she doesn’t fire a big shot first crack out of the box. With red hot F. Prat taking the call, the M. Casse-trained filly looks like the one to beat. Trainer Graham Motion may have a live item as well with Gathered. Certainly bred for turf, the daughter of Collected recorded a couple of bullet drills at Fair Hill that catch the eye and that, along with having been purchased as a yearling for $150,000, makes us believe she has more than a fair share of talent. The Irish-bred Brindi (Ire), by the noted turf sprinter No Nay Never, must overcome the extreme outside draw and shows a work pattern that includes nothing but slow works, but we’ve seen her on video and believe she’ll be quite competitive when allowed to display her true speed. There are others in the field that may deserve a secondary look, but on our main ticket we’ll sink or swim with the three listed above in rolling exotic play.
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Saratoga 9th Race – Post 5:55 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 9-Mixologist
Other Contenders: 11-Camera.
Forecast: Mixologist was a stylish debut winner over a route of ground on turf at Churchill Downs last month, doing so like a filly with a real future. The number was strong, yet it actually might have undervalued the performance based on the subsequent highly rated win produced by that race’s runner-up Deep Satin last Sunday at Saratoga. The daughter of Frosted shows a strong series of solo recent drills over the Saratoga grass course while ticking over for this first level allowance race, which we expect her to win. At 4-1 on the morning line, the B. Cox-trained sophomore offers enticing wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Camera is poorly dawn outside, but the addition of blinkers could accelerate her improving trajectory and her rising speed figures should make her the one to fear most.
