July 13, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “What You Need to Know” column identifies those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
Selections/analysis published before late (morning) scratches.
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Bustin Bay
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Virutual Reality; 4-Honey Money
Forecast: Bustin Bay crushed a non-winners of two allowance state bred field with a career top speed figure last month at Belmont Park and today moves into open company at the same level. A two-time winner over the local main track, the Linda Rice-trained mare looks reasonably priced at 5/2 on the morning line to score right back.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Empire Island
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Lady Moscato; 7-Sugar Hi; 8-Tap the Keg
Forecast: Here’s a challenging maiden juvenile dash for fillies in which the known element doesn’t impress. Best advice is to spread in rolling exotic play. The first timer Empire Island shows a recent bullet gate drill at Churchill Downs (4f, :47.3bg) that was the fastest of 41 and a few previous drills that were quick for the day as well. The barn has average stats with debut runners but in an open fray this daughter of Classic Empire seems as good as any.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Saratoga Gaze; 8-Liana B; 4-Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-La Aguililla
Forecast: This grass grab bag offers a number of possibilities, requiring another spread in rolling exotic play. Saratoga Gaze turns back to a sprint, shows up in a seller for the first time, and has back numbers that are better than par for this $35,000 (nw-2) level. Liana B is a bit shy in the speed figure department but is lightly raced with room to improve and projects to be the quickest early. She’ll take them as far as she can. Smokin’ Hot Kitty has a prior win over the course and appears to be the most dangerous of the closing types.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Salimah
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Canisy
Forecast: Salimah was a beaten choice in the American Oaks-G1 last December and then had to be stopped on. She returns in a third level allowance affair for trainer Chad Brown (superior 30% with layoffs) and on paper simply outclasses this field, especially if she enjoys the waiting ride she prefers. The works aren’t flashy (they never are for this outfit) but are healthy and steady, and since she easily won her debut we know the Irish-bred filly can fire fresh.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Portos; 2-Dust Devil; 1a-Styner
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Two Thirty Five
Forecast: Portos plummets from the Brooklyn S.-G2 all the way down to a $20,000 claimer, so the son of Tapit is clearly being culled from the barn. Winless in two years, just 2-for-22 overall, and without any discernable style, the Tom Morley-trained horse hardly is one to trust, but on numbers has every right to beat this field, if healthy. Dust Devil, second in three of his last four starts, projects to enjoy a soft, ground-saving, stalking trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home, while Styner knows where the wire is (eight wins from 22 starts) and will be tough to catch if he can secure an uncontested front-running trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Runningwscissors
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Rough Draft; 6-Yarrow
Forecast: Runningwscissors has 13 wins on his resume and looks capable of adding to that tally with this class drop into the allowance optional $40,000 claiming ranks. Plenty fast on figures, the veteran son of Congaree will be tough with a repeat of his race before last and even the one before that, both sprint turf scores in which a stalk-and-pounce strategy was successfully employed. He was off the board at 4/5 in his most recent outing but even in defeat earned a strong enough speed figure to handle this task.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Condiment Girl; 10-Obrigada; 5-Sa Foradada
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Condiment Girl and Obrigada are hard to separate. Both were haltered last time out for $50,000 by barns that have superb stats with the first-off-the-claim angle, and both earned identical 79 Beyer speed figures in victory at Ellis Park. The former is the quicker of the two, but the latter is drawn outside and is guaranteed an ideal stalking trip. Sa Foradada adds blinkers for the first time after finishing second while more than 14 lengths clear of the rest and picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. She’s the best of the late runners and at seven furlongs gets what might be her optimum trip.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-My Sea Cottage; 5-Kingfish Stevens; 2-Born a Gambler
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: My Sea Cottage projects as the controlling speed and if not pressured early could take this field a very long way. However, he has developed a habit of not being able to seal the deal under pressure, missing in his last three starts by an aggregate one and one-quarter lengths. Backers will be holding their breaths in the final sixteenth. Kingfish Stevens has a dangerous closing style and will be heard from late if he gets any kind of help up front. Who knows if the addition of blinkers (for the first time) will have a positive or negative effect on his form. Born a Gambler earned a career top speed figure when winning a restricted (nw-2) $50,000 claimer at Belmont Park last month. With another forward move, he’ll be right there.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Saratoga Secret; 7-Wine On Tap
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Saratoga Secret was a pleasing debut winner at Ellis Park three weeks ago and if she can produce a forward move in this year’s edition of the Schuylerville Stakes-G3 the daughter of Arrogate can score right back. Wine on Tap was workmanlike in her debut maiden score at Belmont Park and is another with every right to step forward.
For a video analysis of this race, click the following link: Schuylerville Stakes Video Analysis
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Stone of Destiny; 7-Arisaema; 10-Here We Go Again
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Stone of Destiny was last of seven in her debut facing state-bred maiden special weight company but had a nightmarish journey (crunched from both sides at the start, rank in traffic midway, etc.) and certainly can be expected to improve a ton off that outing, especially with this drop into the maiden $40,000 ranks. Johnny V. rides her back, so in an open fray let’s try to get her home at a decent price. Arisaema is another showing up in a claimer for the first time and though already winless in eight starts should be highly competitive at this level for the strong trainer jockey/trainer team of J. Abreu/F. Prat. Here We Go Again, away since November, returns for a new outfit, picks up Luis Saez, and could easily be a better type this time around. Toss her in.
