Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
Thursday, July 11, 2024
______________________________________________________________________________
Saratoga Sixth Race – Post: 3:53 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 1-Strong State
Other Contenders: 9-Teca; 2-Will Not Be Swayed.
Forecast: Strong State didn’t break well and was shuffled back in heavy traffic early, found room to rally inside into the lane, angled out, and finished with good energy prior to an excellent gallop out when second in her debut last month at Churchill Down. The number was better than par for the level and it was the kind of promising effort that usually leads to a diploma-earning performance next time out. We suspect it will in this case, but the daughter of Tom’s d’Etat will need to leave cleanly from the rail to avoid a similar type of rugged trip in this restricted maiden special weight affair for juvenile fillies. Her pedigree suggests she should improve with experience, so we’ll put her on top while demanding a price that is in vicinity of her morning line of 5/2. For protection, we’ll also include a couple of strong contenders in the various exotics. Teca chased home the excellent prospect Obliging in a hot race at Monmouth Park while nearly eight lengths clear of the rest, though in her case she benefitted from a lovely trip that offered not a straw in her path. The daughter of Improbable may not be able to beat a truly decent filly, but it may take one to beat her. Will Not Be Swayed appears the most dangerous of the newcomers. From the B. Cox barn (a powerful 25% with first timers) and from the first crop of War of Will, she put together a solid if not unspectacular series of drills in Kentucky before vanning up. She should be plenty fit for a good effort and attracts the barn’s “go-to” jockey Flavian Prat, who is a superior 31% when he combines with Cox.
______________________________________________________________________________
Saratoga Sixth Race – Post 6:16 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 10-Viggiedeal
Other Contenders: 5-Complexion; 3-Sherbini.
Forecast: On paper, this is a stronger than par renewal of the Schuylerville Stakes, a listed affair for juvenile fillies over six furlongs. Each of the 11 runners are in various stages of improvement, so whichever can produce the most significant forward move is the likely winner. Viggiedal was visually quite pleasing in her debut, running fast (76 Beyer figure), and doing her best work late (final furlong in less than :12) in a smart five length gate-to-wire score at Churchill Downs last month. A $350,000 2-year-old in training purchase in the OBS March sale (she looked fantastic previewing in :09 3/5) and from the first crop of the outstanding young sire Vekoma, the S. Asmussen-trained 2-year-old shows two easy recent breezes to tick her over, is comfortably drawn outside, and is highly likely to step forward at this longer trip. Though contention is deep, she offers excellent wagering value at or near her morning line of 9/2. Two other first-out winners deserve consideration somewhere on your ticket. Complexion is quick sort fresh from wiring maidens at the Big A last month and earned a similar speed figure to our top selection’s while also coming home strongly (another sub :12 second final furlong). Truthfully, on pure form, there’s little to separate the two. Sherbini probably isn’t as quick as either of the fillies mentioned above but she’ll most likely be the beneficiary of a hot pace if one develops. In her debut win the daughter of Cairo Prince rallied smartly from the second flight to defeat our top selection in today’s sixth race, Strong State, and it will be interesting to see if ‘State can do her part to frank the form earlier on the card.
