“WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – SARATOGA
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).
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SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:
Fifth Race – Post: 3:21 ET
Top Pick: 5-Clear the Deck (3-1)
A stronger-than-average maiden can beat our top selection but in a race restricted to those that went through the ring for $50,000 or less in their most recent sale, there doesn’t appear to be any world beaters in this six furlong sprint for juveniles. In the frame in all three career starts against similar restricted competition, the son of Army Mule is what he is, though the addition of blinkers may help him display more tactical speed. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt acts like he’ll be aided by today’s extra half-furlong, so unless the newcomers are better than we think they are, there’s a reasonable gamble being offered at or near the morning line of 3-1. Among those worth considering in exacta and trifecta play is 1-Tsuris, from the barn of Dallas Stewart. He doesn’t train like a speed type but rather a steady, willing sort that with good racing luck should make an impression from the quarter pole home.
Eighth Race: Post: 5:05 ET
Top Pick: 3-Nabokov (3-1)
This well-regarded Uncle Mo colt earned a giant speed figure when breaking his maiden in his second career start last May but then failed to negotiate the course when virtually eased in the Dwyer S.G3 in his most recent outing. We’ll toss that race out and hope that he can duplicate his impressive maiden win in this first-level allowance race that should produce very comfortable early splits for this pace-pressing sophomore. The Chad Brown-trained colt has appeared quite sharp in drills since his last start, so with regular pilot Irad Ortiz, Jr. back in the saddle and at 3-1 on the morning line, we’ll take the bait. In the exacta and/or trifecta, consider the improving 4-Winit, a career top maiden winner last month and likely to continue his upward mobility, and 5-Warrior Johnny, competitive on figures and likely to at least hit the board.
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SARATOGA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:
(Races 1-5)
1st race: 1-Sensibleconclusion; 3-Uncle Water Flow; 2-Lucky Mucho Man
2nd race: 4-Caragate
3rd race: 1a-Sassy Melissa; 6-Jill’s a Hot Mess
4th race: 4-Stage Left; 5-Flamingo Hawk; 2-Mexican Wonder Boy
5th race: 5-Clear the Deck; 1-Tsuris
(Races 6-10)
6th race: 4-Recognize 7-Bernt Again; 8-Orange Freeze
7th race: 3-Charles Chrome
8th race: 3-Nabokov; 4-Winit; 5-Warrior Johnny
9th race: 6-Busy Morning; 4-Dream Central
10th race: 1-Uragano; 6-Lookin Grand
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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:
FIFTH RACE:
Tsuris (August 5, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3bg). Grade: B-
Mildly ridden from the gate inside Wicked Secret (same time) for D. Stewart, about a half-length in front throughout with steady splits and finishing with something left late. Probably not a particularly quick sort but has a steady way of going and seems reasonably fit. Not a top prospect by any means but should be competitive in a moderate maiden affair.
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Childers (July 30, Saratoga, 5f, 1:02b TT). Grade: B-
Steady breeze, nothing special, while inside Saudi Crown (same time) for B. Cox, mostly on his own until asked a bit late while traveling out to the first turn. Bernardini colt be a fit in a restricted maiden special weight sprint if It comes up soft enough.
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Hey Eugene (July 27, Saratoga, 4f, :49.4b). Grade: C+
Even but a tad the best inside Chelsea Pier (same time) for M. Maker, moderate coaxing with a final quarter mile in :26.1. Hard to get excited about but has bit of run. Brought $45,000 at the Timonium sale, where he breezed a furlong in :10 2/5 under pressure, fair-to-moderate
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SIXTH RACE:
Orange Freeze (August 5, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b TT TC DU). Grade: B-
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Mademoisellejackie (4f, :50.3b TT TC DU) and closed the gap to be a half-length behind at the wire but could never get by despite being coaxed (workmate not asked much, drew clear on the gallop out, much best), final quarter mile around dogs in a fairly decent :24.3 after going off slowly). Has bit of ability but was hoping for a bit more punch in the final stages of the work. Juvenile filly by Freud has winning connections (Clement, Rosario) and seems certain to get some play in a modest state-bred turf router for juvenile fillies.
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EIGHTH RACE
Nabokov (August 6, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b)., Grade: B+
Under a tight hold looking quite sharp in solo half mile breeze for C. Brown, plenty left late while able to considerably faster if turned loose. We’re inclined to toss out his poor Dwyer S.-G3 run and assume that he can bounce back with a similar effort that produce a highly rated maiden win two races back.
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TENTH RACE:
Loz (August 12, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b). Grade: C+
Was asked and ridden throughout while outside Nobilis (same time) and was clearly second best to breezing workmate, final quarter mile in :25.4 in half mile drill for G. Weaver. Hasn’t show much in three outings and definitely needs a drop into the maiden claiming ranks.
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