“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Makia; 4-Katherine Thomas
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Makia has trained well enough to win at first asking in a race in which the known element doesn’t inspire. The daughter of Street Sense is bred more for dirt than turf, but the Clement-Rosario always is dangerous, and we suspect this $200,000 Keeneland yearling purchase will turn up a hot item. Katherine Thomas breezed nicely in blinkers under a tight hold – View Workout Video – to prove best in a three horse gate drill eight days ago, and based on the visuals from the video we suspect she will display good speed going long on the grass. The barn rarely wins with first timers, but this one may prove to be the exception to the rule and her morning line of 6-1 represents a bit of a gambling number.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Set Sail; 5-Top Secret
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Set Sail has been away for more than a year but returns in a winnable spot for trainer Bill Mott, who hits at a strong 21% with layoff runners. This was a colt that trained like a stakes type for Richard Mandella last year before he ever started, and his maiden win was impressive enough to gain him the favorite’s role at 2-1 in the Peter Pan S.-G3 (he got beat 20 lengths). We’ll put him on top but not with a high degree of trust due to his pattern of inactivity. Top Secret is developing nicely with experience, and in his first try stretching out the son of Uncle Mo could find himself as the controlling speed. His maiden win at Ellis Park was solid, and if he can build on that today the Steve Asmussen-trained colt could step up and win again.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:25 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Itsakeyper
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Let’s take a stand and single Itsakeyper in this turf sprint for state-bred second level allowance fillies and mares. She’s exiting the claiming ranks and tackling tougher foes, but the daughter of Brilliant Speed is a prototype late-running grass sprinter in peak form and just earned a career top Beyer speed figure in her 35th career start. Not much better will be needed today. There is plenty of speed signed on to compliment her style and she’s won over the course in the past, so at 6-1 on the morning line the seven year old mare is worth a play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
*
RACE 4: Post: 3:00 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’re going to pass this year’s renewal of the Shuvee S.-G2 and just enjoy it. Clairiere has the benefit of recent racing and that may give her a slight edge over track specialist Nest, who makes her seasonable bow on a surface that produced runaway wins last year in both the C.C.A. Oaks-G1 and the Alabama S.-G1. Is she ready off the bench? The works are okay, nothing great. The bottom line is that there’s little wagering value to be found even if you pick a side and wind up being right.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:33 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Spankhurst; 4-Alcools; 2-Cash Now
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Spankhurst seems as good as any in the fifth race, a $12,500 main track claiming sprint for older horses. Exiting a pair of tougher starter’s allowance races and showing up cheap after being claimed for $32,000 three runs back, the son of Speightster looks very much like he’s being culled from the barn, but even if true that doesn’t mean he can’t outrun this bunch. Freshened since March, the Norm Casse-trained gelding has been carefully campaigned in recent months but against this bunch – his easiest spot ever – he should enjoy the pace flow that calls for moderate early splits. Alcools moves up a level after getting tagged right on the line in a $10,000 seller in the mud last month over a distance of ground at Belmont Park. He’s probably most comfortable sprinting so we’re expecting the Bruce Levine-trained gelding to be prominent throughout and have every chance. Cash Now, runner-up in his last pair with solid figures, drops from $20,000 to $12,500 but moves from his preferred surface of turf to dirt, so we’re not quite sure what to expect. Toss him in somewhere.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Camera
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Mystical Chant; 6-Love to Eat.
Forecast: Camera may be one of the more promising juvenile fillies on the grounds at this stage, and the $1.05 million purchase out of the multiple Grade-1 placed Cassies Dreamer makes her debut following a string of impressive drills that should have her fit and ready. The Todd Pletcher-trained juvenile easily disposed of her workmate in a recent gate drill – View Workout Video – and appears to be blessed with a bit more early speed than you’d normally see from a daughter of Curlin. Drawn comfortably outside, she is listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite, but we suspect she will go a bit lower than that. In a race in which those that have raced don’t overwhelm, let’s go with this fresh face and hope that performs up to expectations.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:39 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Colonel Bowman
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Caramel Chip.
Forecast: Colonel Bowman is a pro’s pro and appears well-placed to secure his fifth consecutive win. The son of Curlin earned a career top speed figure when opening up in mid-stretch before barely surviving close home (moved too soon?) last time out and simply should outclass this starter allowance ($20,000) field with anything close to that race, or any of his others in 2023. Listed at 6/5 on the morning line, the David Jacobson-trained gelding won’t offer any wagering value in the win pool but can be used as a rolling exotic single.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:14 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-R Calli Kim; 4-Tass; 8-Lucky Peridot
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Blue Times.
Forecast: This $32,000 claiming middle distance turf affair for fillies and mares is quite challenging. For every positive among the main players, there’s a glaring negative, so maybe the best strategy is to spread deeply and hope to land a price. R Calli Kim launches a comeback – she’s been away for more than a year – but if ready the veteran mare can act at this level and is squarely priced on the morning line at 6-1. She vans in from Turfway Park, where her work tab was strong and consistent, and she’s won fresh in the past. Tass has the proper closing style for a race that projects to have faster than average early splits, but she’s had five prior runs over the Saratoga lawn and has yet to hit the board (yeah, that’s a minus). Perhaps most effective when given a patient ride, she could produce a dangerous late kick if such a strategy is utilized. Lucky Peridot switches to Flavian Prat and is another capable of making some noise with her best effort. She was dull when unplaced as the favorite in her last outing but a repeat of her race before last – a good runner-up effort at Gulfstream Park – puts her in the fray at 10-1 on the morning line.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:47 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Majority Partner
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Majority Partner drops for the money run while returning to his favorite main track – he’s two-for-two at Saratoga – and the Linda Rice-trained gelding seems fairly solid at 9/5 on the morning line in this seven furlong event for allowance optional claiming ($45,000) older horses). His recent speed figures are strong’ it’s just that he’s just been in a tad too tough. Not today. Let’s go with the Linda Rice-trained son of Unified in the win pool and as a key in the various rolling exotics.
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:20 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Dance With Me Babe; 4-Three Girls
Backups/savers: none. 12-Gotham Gray
Forecast: Dance With Me Babe finished second under these conditions in her last two starts with rising speed figures, so with any kind of forward move the daughter of War Dancer should be able to earn her diploma. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides her back and projects to have her on or near the lead throughout. Three Girls, away since December, returns without blinkers and with Lasix and could easily be a better type this time around for new trainer George Weaver. This will be her first start for a tag, so the softer company shouldn’t hurt, either. The works aren’t flashy but are steady and should have her fit enough.
