“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Fast Kimmie; 2-Strand of Gold; 5-Elle Est Forte
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-My Lion; 8-Red Hot Chick.
Forecast: The Sunday opener is a challenging handicapping exercise with several contenders to consider in this restricted (nw-2) $50,000 grass router for fillies and mares. Fast Kimmie, unplaced in her four outings following her maiden special weight win at Gulfstream Park more than a year ago, is realistically lowered in class while seeking her proper level and should fit nicely in this considerably easier spot. The Phil Serpe-trained filly should settle into a second flight, stalking position and then have her chance to rally when called upon. She’s a fit on speed figures, retains Jose Lezcano, and offers a bit of value at 5-1 on the morning line. Strand of Gold broke her maiden in Florida in good style in May, makes her first start since, and while she’s shy of where she needs to be on numbers the lightly raced Lookin At Lucky filly certainly has a right to improve with added experience. Her rail post guarantees a ground saving trip and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., won’t hurt, either. Elle Est Forte is strong on numbers but may lack a winning punch (she’s 1-for-16 with eight seconds and thirds). Like our top pick, she’s dropping into a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the soft company.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Alpine Queen; 3-Liberty Flame
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Alpine Queen nosedives in class in her first start since early May, so her current condition is a big question, but if she brings her best race the veteran mare should be capable of regaining her winning form in this $12,500 sprint for fillies and mares. She’s won over this main track in the past and switches to Luis Saez. Liberty Flame is back where she belongs after being completely out of her element in a starter $50,000 dash last month. She’s a need-the-lead type, and if she can clear the field during the early stages she could get brave late.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Tass
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Tass, claimed in her last pair, is raised to the $40,000 ranks for new trainer Rob Atras (a solid 19% with this angle) and has recent speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. She’s drawn nicely inside and projects to enjoy a comfortable stalking trip or, better yet, the role as the controlling speed in this middle distance inner turf affair for fillies and mares. Her record over the local lawn (6-0-0-1) is the one major concern. Let’s take a stand a make her a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 5/2.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Amidst Waves
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Amidst Waves seeks her third straight win and should be a short price to extend her streak in this year’s edition of the Bolton Landing Stakes for juvenile fillies sprinting on grass. A maiden winner at Belmont Park two races back and then convincing in victory in the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth Park last month, the daughter of Midshipman clearly has found her niche as a grass sprinter, and while she has plenty of speed she is comfortable in a stalk-and-pounce role should the race flow dictate that strategy. At what probably will be a shorter price than her 8/5 morning line, the George Weaver-trained filly seems like a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:27 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Catherine Wheel; 11-Ella Elizabeth
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Catherine Wheel, a debuting daughter of Into Mischief, brought $725,000 at the OBS April sale, where she breezed a furlong in a blistering :9 4/5 in effortless fashion. She has been equally impressive in her local drills for Chad Brown and looks to have the ability to win at first asking. And while the rail with a first timer always is a concern, she’s certain to receive a ton of action on the tote (deservedly so) so we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t leave lower than her morning line of 3-1. Ella Elizabeth has the potential to be very good as well, and has the benefit of the cozy outside draw. The daughter of Take Charge Indy was a $510,000 purchase at Timonium in May after previewing in :10 flat over a traditional dirt surface (normally a tick or two slower than the OBS all-weather track) and is a quick-actioned ball of energy with plenty of early zip. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other and while Catherine Wheel gets top billing both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Lamorna; 1-Steel Lute
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Lamorna had been very impressive in morning drills leading up to her debut last month and was “supposed” to win, but a poor break cost her valuable early position and she simply was given too much to do when rallying bravely to wind up a close fourth, beaten less than two lengths, while probably best. With that turf sprint behind her and a bullet breeze on grass (3f, :35.1b, fastest of 16) just as few days ago, the daughter of Munnings should be set to graduate in this middle distance turf affair for juvenile fillies. The Bill Mott-trained filly is listed at 7/2 on the morning line and is a gamble at that price. For protection, you should also include on your ticket the Chad Brown-trained Steel Lute, who we believe is better than her 10-1 morning line,. The daughter of Midnight Lute has looked like a nice sort in her recent breezes, gets the rail and Flavian Prat, and should be plenty fit for a big try in her first career outing. Worth noting is that she brought $370,000 at the OBS March sale, where she previewed in :10 flat while displaying a long, athletic stride.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bramito; 4-Mount Up; 9-Sundaeswithsandy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: It’s difficulty to accurately assess the debut performance by Bramito at Ellis Park, because while he was visually pleasing and the number came up very strong, the win was accomplished over a sloppy surface that may (or may not) have moved him up. The son of Gun Runner, a $400,000 2-year-old in training purchase last year, gets a chance today to show what he’s made of in this first level allowance main track miler that hopefully will be staged over a fast track. Mount Up has improving speed figures and will be adding blinkers in this, his fourth career start, so another forward move is likely. The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Army Mule was more than five lengths clear of the rest when a solid runner-up over this track and distance last month and is the one that Bramito may have to fear most. Sundaeswithsandy is fast on figures and may try gate-to-wire tactics from his extreme outside draw. He’s moving up from state-bred company but on his best day he can act at this level.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:14 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Digitize; 2-Magico
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown saddles the two main contenders in this seven furlong maiden affair for older horses, and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Digitize launches a comeback after displaying some promise in a pair of maiden races back in the spring of 2022. The works at Monmouth Park look solid and should have him plenty fit, so we’re expecting the son of Maclean’s Music to return as well as he left. His speed figures from either one of his 3-year-old races would probably win this race. Stable mate Magico was a distant second in his debut over a sloppy surface at Belmont Park last month and has a right to step forward with that bit of experience behind him. The barn’s record with second time starters (30%) is exemplary, so significant improvement can be expected.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Java Buzz; 3-Quality G; 2-Empire Attraction
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Java Buzz joins the Linda Rice barn for his first start since March, and the committed front runner will employ his usual tactics in this restricted (nw-2) $35,000 inner turf route affair that projects to have a soft early pace. He’s performed well over this course in the past and can fire fresh as well, so we’re hoping the Mshawish gelding can wire the field at 7/2 on the morning line. Quality G has as good stalking style and is likely to be first over on ‘Buzz should that one fail to stay the trip. The son of Quality Road has gradually improving speed figures, and with another forward move he’ll give our top pick all he can handle. Empire Attraction, freshened for a couple of months and a recent arrival from South Florida, lands Irad Ortiz, Jr. and has finished first or second in five of eight career starts. He’s a tad light on numbers but should at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:21 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Conquist; 9-Chalky Chalk
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Conquist is a 12-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but his edge in speed figures over the rest of this maiden claiming sprint field is readily apparent so perhaps he has finally found a field he can outrun. Chalky Cat shows up in a modest seller for the first time after chasing straight maiden in his first four career starts. His numbers are moderately competitive, so we’ll include him on our ticket as well.
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