JHeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
Saturday, July 13, 2024
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Saratoga Fifth Race – Post: 2:46 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 3-Rebel Red (GB).
Other Contenders: 1a-Unit Economics.
Forecast: The lightly raced and rapidly developing Rebel Red (GB) was given an easy run in his U.S at Keeneland in April, finishing on his own courage to split the 12-runner field without ever becoming involved before galloping out with a ton left. He got serious in his next start in a maiden affair at Churchill Downs, where the son of Frankel produce an electric turn of foot to graduate going away by more than a length, with the runner-up finishing seven clear of the rest. Additionally, he accomplished the win despite taking the worst of the slow early, very fast late race shape. The C. DeVaux-trained 4-year-old has recorded two easy recent breezes to tick him over and his comfortable three-hole post that should allow for a cozy second flight, ground-saving trip. At 5-1 on the morning line he’ll offer good value in the win pool and in the various exotics. It must be noted that Unit Economics (GB) sports a similar pattern and is actually a bit faster on numbers, hence his 6/5 morning line status. Clearly, he’s the one our top pick must worry about the most.
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Saratoga Seventh Race – Post: 3:54 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 6-Sam’s Rocket.
Other Contenders: 1-Tough Catch.
Forecast: Most of the best offspring of American Pharoah have been fillies but here’s a first-time starting juvenile colt that appears to have real ability. Sam’s Rocket looked spectacular breezing a furlong in :10 flat (never really asked) at the OBS April sale before bringing $925,000 through the ring, and since joining the W. Mott barn he has put together a steady and healthy series of drills that should have him fit and ready for a major effort first time out. Out of a precocious race mare who won her debut by nearly seven lengths (and then won her second start by six), this well-balanced, athletic colt with smooth action hasn’t been asked for his top ability (no need to) in the morning but can be counted on to make a very favorable first impression in this competitive straight maiden sprint. He’s listed at 5-1 on the morning line and is worth an enthusiastic gamble at or near that price. For those preferring some protection, consider Tough Catch on your ticket, at least as a backup. From the first crop of the hot fast sprinter Complexity, this D. Stewart-trained colt, like our top pick, was clocked in :10 flat at that same OBS auction and since has been burning up the track in a.m. drills at Churchill Downs. If he leaves with his field from the disadvantageous rail post position, the $280,000 purchase should have a strong say in the matter.
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Saratoga Eighth Race – Post 4:29 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 2-Point Clear.
Other Contenders: 10-Hurricane Nelson.
Forecast: Point Clear tipped his hand with an excellent runner-up performance in his debut in a maiden race at Churchill Downs last month, settling for second money due to severe trouble leaving the gate. The son of Malibu Moon stumbled badly and fell far back, wasn’t asked for much until the head of the lane, then picked it up enthusiastically when chirped to and finished full of run before galloping out impressively. The rail post is no help but with that bit of experience behind him and with an extra furlong to work with, the J. Ortiz-trained sophomore looks primed to graduate. At a playable 5-1 on the morning line and with three easy breezes since raced to keep him on edge, this talented sophomore has much in his favor. His main competition comes from the comebacking Hurricane Nation, stakes placed last fall during his 2-year-old campaign and with speed figures that are extremely fast for this level. The work tab looks good, and if the son of Khozan returns at least as well as he left, the C. Clement-trained colt should be hard to handle.
