August 5, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Innate; 5-Allied Attack
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The first race has been handicapped for turf. If it is switched to the main track, we’ll pass. Innate displayed ability when second in a maiden race in Ireland – he earned a reasonable 63 Timeform Rating – and makes his U.S. debut in today’s opener. The concern is that trainer Joseph O’Brien hasn’t done much at all in the past couple of seasons with these European shippers. Allied Attack may be the best of the locals. The Omaha Beach colt has done some good work leading up to his debut for Michael Maker (modest stats with first timers) and may be able to run some. With Irad Ortiz, Jr., taking the call, he is sure to receive plenty of play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:07 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Be You; 5-Domestic Product
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Be You was best of a team in a fairly nice gate work July 29 – View Workout – and looks like a live item for Todd Pletcher in this maiden juvenile dash over six furlongs. He broke quickly in the aforementioned breeze (4f, :47 flat, fastest of 101) and was mostly in hand throughout. He’ll need to do the same today from his rail post position. Domestic Product displayed plenty of power in team drill July 13 – View Workout – and looks very much like a colt with strength and talent, although we’re not sure how much early zip he’ll display in his debut. He’s a decent sort of a prospect, at least, so we’ll include the son of Practical Joke on our ticket.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:39 ET Grade:
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Victorious Wave
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Victorious Wave has finished first or second in seven of 11 career starts, and after stealing a purse at Finger Lakes in his first start off a layoff in June the son of Stormy Atlantic returns to the Big Circuit while dropping a notch below his claim value in this $20,000 extended sprint for older horses. A perfect two-for-two at this seven furlong trip, the Chris Englehart-trained gelding is solid on numbers and should enjoy an ideal pace stalking journey. He’s 2-1 on the morning line and should have no excuses.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:11 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Ortus; Sonic Speed
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Be of Courage.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If the race is switched to the main track, we’ll pass. Ortus closed well but too late to wind up second when finding six furlongs a bit too sharp at this level last month at Belmont Park. The Christophe Clement-trained gelding stretches out to what we believe is his preferred distance today, so he should be able to produce a winning late kick. Sonic Speed earned a career top speed figure when third in a starter’s allowance two-turn grass affair over soft footing three weeks ago and not much more will be needed to make him a major player once again. The barn has been hot this meeting and the switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a positive factor.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Be the Boss; 2-Asymmetric
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Two for Charging.
Forecast: Be the Boss is a hard-knocking veteran sprinter with a prior win over this track and recent numbers that are more than good enough for the level. He’s also a seven furlong specialist – two wins and one second in three starts – so it all adds up to a top effort in this state-bred first level allowance affair for trainer Michael Maker. This switch from grass to the main track will favor him, as well. Asymmetric is lightly raced with room to improve, and with just a slight forward move the Chad Brown-trained gelding will be right there. He’s a not a quick type but will enjoy this seven furlong trip that will allow him to be within striking range without being ridden hard during the early stages.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:17 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Caravel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’re going to assume that the Troy Stakes-G3 will remain on turf. If not, we’ll pass. Caravel has won her last five races and will be odds-on to extend her streak. She’s slumming at the Grade-3 level but trainer Brad Cox apparently thinks he needs a race to tick her over for the fall. There’s no play for us in this race.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:51 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Dakota Gold; 1-Portfolio Company.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: We’ll handicap this year’s edition of the Lure Stakes for grass only. Dakota Gold is eligible to this restricted stakes race because his added money wins all have been earned when facing state-bred company. Based on his speed figures, the son of Freud should be more than capable of stepping out of his comfort zone to handle opening company. He has displayed good form over the Saratoga lawn and has the ideal second flight, stalking style that can be effective no matter what the pace flow is. Portfolio Company is a progressive gelding with rising numbers, a good inside draw, and proven winning form over the local lawn. He’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and is the one to fear most.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:26 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Dorth Vader
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Pretty Mischievous
Forecast: Dorth Vader just missed in a photo in the Acorn S.-1 to Pretty Mischievous and could have won with a better trip. She was bottled in and stymied in traffic along the rail to the head of the lane, got clear, responded bravely, and then fought hard to the wire but couldn’t quite match strides with ‘Mischievous, who had clear sailing outside throughout. ‘Mischievous is buried on the fence today while ‘Vader has the opportunity to inherit an ideal stalking position behind the projected blazing pacesetters Maple Leaf Mel and Munnys Gold, who appear destined to hook up early and go toe-to-toe throughout. ‘Meanwhile, Vader can pounce and accelerate when given her cue. At 6-1 on the morning line, she’s the gamble.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:01 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Program Trading; 5-Far Bridge
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Program Trading is unbeaten in two starts and today moves into Grade-1 competition in this year’s edition of the Saratoga Derby Invitational. It’s rather significant class jump but this English-bred gelding could be up to the task. He has plenty of tactical speed – it wouldn’t shock us if he finds himself on the front end – and based on the projected pace flow the Chad Brown-trained sophomore should be just where he needs to be when the pressure is turned on entering the lane. On pure numbers, he’s right there with these and with any kind of forward move could extend his winning streak to three. Far Bridge already has a Grade-1 win on his resume (Belmont Derby) and is the likely choice and one to beat. He can turn it on late, and with any kind of help up front and clear sailing through the lane the Todd Pletcher-trained son of English Channel will be difficult to contain.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:42 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Cody’s Wish
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The only question in this year’s Whitney S.-G1 is whether Cody’s Wish will be as effective over nine furlongs as he is around one turn. He’ll have to prove it. Even his two-turn Breeders’ Cup Mile win, which was race-shape aided, left some doubt, as the son of Curlin was fully extended to edge the 3-year-old Cyberknife by a head. Listed at 50 cents son the dollar on the morning line, the Bill Mott-trained 5-year-old will be far too short to play, but as the winner of nine of his last 10 starts we suspect he’ll find a way to get there first again. We’ll be rooting for him.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:16 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Everso Mischievous; 10-Caramel Chip
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Everso Mischievous missed by a head at odds-on in a similar allowance event at Ellis Park in late June but earned a very strong speed figure and was six lengths clear of the rest while running a winning race in defeat. A recent bullet half mile breeze on the training track (:47.4b, fastest of 53) is a good sign that’s he’s fit and ready, and with the addition of blinkers we’re expecting the son of Into Mischief to regain his winning edge. Caramel Chip lands the cozy outside post, has numbers that fit, and is a tough and durable veteran who won’t back down from a fight. He’s the one to fear most.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:48 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 12-Beuys; 10-Al’s Rocket; 4-My Sea Cottage
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for grass. If it is switched to the main track, we’ll pass. Beuys is poorly drawn outside but seems better than his winter Gulfstream Park races show. He’s now in the Brendan Walsh barn, has a solid and steady recent work pattern, and has races overseas that make him a strong fit at this level. Al’s Rocket can be dangerous from off the pace with his best effort, though his lack of tactical speed always makes his task tougher than it should be. With some help up front, he could be heard from in the closing stages. My Sea Cottage does his best work on the front end and projects to be the controlling speed. If not pressured early, he could get brave late.
