“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 11:40 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Walkstib
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Walstib missed by a neck in his debut a little more than two weeks ago and if the quick turnaround doesn’t have a negative effective on his form the son of Unified should bet set to graduate in this restricted maiden special weight sprint for juveniles. His number was just okay, but in a race that contains only those runners that brought (or were bought back) for $50,000 at auction there just isn’t a whole lot to contend with. He’s 2-1 on the morning line and probably will go a bit shorter.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:13 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-City Mischief; 2-Ortus
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race originally was carded for grass. If the race is switched to the main track, we will pass. City Mischief has been knocking on the door dating back to last year and is overdue for a win. The Into Mischief gelding has hit the board in each of his last three starts while earning solid speed figures for this level and has a right to produce a forward move in his second start off a long layoff for trainer Mark Casse (solid stats with this angle). He has good tactical speed and should have every chance from the quarter pole home. Ortus is a late-running sprinter that can be effective if things go his way. He’ll need some help up front and room to rally through the lane but with clear sailing he’ll be dangerous in the final furlong.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:46 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Money Supply; 1-What’s Up Doc
Backups/savers/Underneath: 4-Mistical Curlin.
Forecast: Money Supply was sharp in victory in an off-the-turf miler for restricted (nw-2) $35,000 claimers and may provide a quick return on investment with a six day turnaround in this starter’s allowance ($50,000) affair over nine furlongs on the main track., The son of Practical Joke earned a career top speed figure in that win and if he can turn in two alike he should be able to handle the short rest and the raise in class. What’s Up Doc was disappointing in a similar spot over a mile two weeks ago but at this nine furlong trip the son of California Chrome should return to good form. He’s most effective when close to the pace, and from the rail he’ll likely inherit an ideal early position and have every chance from there.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:19 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Scocciatore; 3-Osbourne; 6-Lord Captain
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Scocciatore looked sharp winning at this level last month over this track and distance and returns against similar foes while seeking to strike while the iron is hot. With two wins and a second in three career starts at the Spa, the son of Central Banker has begun to earn the reputation of a horse for course. We’ll see if that holds true today. Osbourne, fourth in the same race our top pick exits, was making his first start since April and has a right to be a little fitter and sharper today. Irad Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard, a positive sign. Lord Captain, first or second in eight of 12 career starts, remains protected by trainer Linda Riced in a sign of confidence and has a strong look with a repeat of his highly rated runner-up effort two races back.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:55 ET Grade:
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Nobel; 7-James Aloysius; 2-Catch That Party
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race originally was carded for grass. If the race is switched to the main track, we will pass. Nobel is a dangerous English invader fresh off the plane for new trainer Brendan Walsh with Timeform ratings that make him a strong fit at this level on this circuit. He’s been competing in decent handicaps overseas when employing front running tactics, and in a race that projects to be slowly run early the son of Lope de Vega may prove difficult to catch if allowed to become the controlling speed. James Aloysius has solid form at the level and should produce his typical performance. He tends to lose his steam under pressure but against this group he’ll likely be a strong factor throughout. Catch That Party is partial to the local lawn (first or second in four of six starts) and is reunited with “win rider” Irad Ortiz, Jr. He’s a tad light on numbers but figures to be doing his best work late and should at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:31 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Cowgirl Charm; 9-Just F Y I
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Colonial Rose; 4-Shop Lifting.
Forecast: Cowgirl Charm has trained like a quick filly for Todd Pletcher and this $160,000 yearling purchase by Lookin At Luck should be a very live item in this maiden special weight juvenile sprint for fillies. Her work tab contains no fancy final times, but she’s never really been asked to show her best stuff and we suspect she’ll display plenty of power when turned loose today. Just F Y I is a first timer by Justify with plenty of talent and is the one ‘Charm probably has to worry about the most. The Bill Mott-trained filly has done everything in the morning like a high quality prospect, and if she breaks with her field she’s likely to be on or near the lead throughout.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:07 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Elite Power; 2-Gunite
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: There are two standout contenders in this year’s Forego Stakes-G1 and either one can win, so we’ll wave the white flag and use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise passing the race. It took Elite Power the length of the grandstand to wear down Gunite when they met in the Vanderbilt H.-G1 last month. Though he’s beaten his main rival in both of their head-to-head meetings, this one could go either way in a race in which there is little early speed and Gunite could simply steal away. On the other hand, Elite Power hasn’t won eight in a row for nothing. Let’s watch and enjoy.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:43 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Talkin Pharoah; 6-Highly Flammable; 12-Southern Horse
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race originally was carded for grass. If the race is switched to the main track, we will pass the race. Let’s talk a shot with the improving Talkin Pharoah, a developing Linda Rice gelding by American Pharoah making his first start on grass. He’s won his last pair with complete authority with rising numbers, and if he improves on the sod as much as we think he might, the former maiden $50,000 claimer could step up and win this first level allowance grass dash at 6-1 on the morning line. Highly Flammable is another lightly raced runner headed in the right direction. A clever winner in a starter $50,000 affair over this course and distance last month, the son of Munnings is solid on numbers while displaying a dangerous late kick. Southern Horse is a deep closing turf sprinter making his first start since April. The Santa Anita shipper can turn it on late but will need racing luck from his extreme outside draw.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:19 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Arabian Lion
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-New York Thunder.
Forecast: Arabian Lion gets the lovely outside draw and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip behind the undefeated (and extremely fast) New York Thunder, who surely will be tested at this seven furlong distance with ‘Lion having the luxury of using the Nyquist colt as a target. Freshened since his dominating win in the Woody Stephens Stakes-G1 in early June, the Bob Baffert-trained colt has trained splendidly in the interim and should be set for another career top effort. ‘Thunder is blazingly fast, no doubt about it, but he’s never faced as good of a colt as he will today. We’ll see if he’s up to the task.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:55 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Echo Zulu
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Goodnight Olive
Forecast: Echo Zulu ran like the fastest filly in America when earning a career 110 Beyer speed figure in her blowout win in the Honorable Miss H.-G2 here last month. Anything close that type of performance will make her impossible to beat. Additionally, she’ll be the controlling speed in a seven furlong sprint that doesn’t have much of it. A perfect three for three at Saratoga and a winner of eight of 10 career starts, the daughter of Gun Runner is listed at 7/5 on the morning line and would offer great value at that price if you can get it (you won’t).
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RACE 11: Post: 5:31 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Stone Age
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This race originally was carded for grass. If the race is switched to the main track, we will pass. Stone Age finished second in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf behind Rebel’s Romance but then went to Hong Kong and the Middle East and didn’t fare very well. Freshened since February, the Chad Brown-trained colt has worked like he’s fit and ready and simply should outclass his rivals in this year’s edition of the Sword Dancer Stakes for grass marathoners. The race came up light, which is why the son of Galileo, with just two wins from 15 lifetime starts, is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite. He looks it on paper but clearly won’t offer any real wagering value at that price. This is a good race to sit out.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:11 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Arcangelo
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Simply stated, Arcangelo is the now horse in this division. His Belmont Stakes-G1 win was highly impressive, more so that given credit for, and his breezes since that race have been nothing short of spectacular. The son of Arrogate projects to inherit an ideal stalking trip, similar to the one he enjoyed in New York, and then have his chance once again to prove his superiority over the two other Triple Crown race winners (Mage and National Treasure) and the Jim Dandy Stakes-G2 winner, Forte. He was an overlay at 7-1 in the Belmont Stakes and will be an overlay at or near his morning line of 5/2 in the Travers.
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RACE 13: Post: 6:48 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Right to Win/1a-Growth Capital
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This race originally was carded for grass. If the race is switched to the main track, we will pass. The entry looks extremely strong in the nightcap, a maiden special weight turf miler for older horses. Growth Capital missed by a head in Kentucky just about a year ago and then went to the sidelines. He’s back for trainer Chad Brown (30% with layoff runners) and shows a healthy, steady work tab that should have him fit and ready. The son of War Front is coupled in the wagering with Right to Win, a lightly raced but talented Irish-bred colt who couldn’t handle Northern Invader in a blazing fast heat at Belmont Park in July (nobody could on that day) but doesn’t have anything that good other than perhaps his entry mate to worry about in this event. The two Brown runners could finish one-two, and probably will.
