“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Special Element; 3-Hunt Ball; 1-Risk It
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Gypsy Mischief.
Forecast: There are lots of question marks in the Saturday opener for juvenile colts, with a number of well-bred first time starters that may be quite capable of running better than they work. We’ll approach with extreme caution. Special Element has the benefit of a prior run, a distant third place finish in a race that we’d judge to be fair to moderate. If there are no world beaters in here, the Copper Bullet colt has a right to improve enough to win, but his 58 Beyer speed figure falls far short of the 80 that is par for this level on this circuit. Hunt Ball is a debuting half-brother to Cody’s Wish and has shown some ability in the morning. The son of Into Mischief looks to be a decent mover on video, but it’s hard to gauge how much early zip he possesses. Risk It is an intriguing Gun Runner colt from the Steve Asmussen barn. We haven’t seen him on video, but the work tab looks steady, healthy, and decent, so we’re expecting a good effort first time out, though his rail post position may be an issue if he doesn’t break well.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Walley World; 8-Blast Furnace
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Buffoon; 7-Skyler’s Artemis.
Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Walley World is bred for turf (More Than Ready) and has done some decent work in the morning for trainer Chad Brown. The barn has good stats with first timers (22%) so with Flavian Prat taking the call the cleverly named son of the mare Forced Family Fun has the look of a live item. Blast Furnace exits a pair of quick turf sprints at Gulfstream Park, most recently finishing fourth behind subsequent stakes winner No Nay Mets, and almost certainly will employ gate-to-wire tactics on the stretch out. He’s now in the Cherie DeVaux barn and picks up Tyler Gaffalione, so a forward move is likely.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-My Sweet Affair; 2-Gerogees Spirit
Backups/savers/Underneath: 6-Shootoutthelights.
Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. My Sweet Affair was in a bit too steep when unplaced in the Galway Stakes over this course and distance seven days ago but returns off short rest in an easier first level allowance dash and should be able to regain her winning form, assuming the quick turnaround doesn’t produce a negative effect. She likes to settle in the second flight and then provide a good late kick, and given the patient ride she prefers the daughter of Twirling Candy looks capable of tagging the leaders close home. Georgees Spirit is a first time Lasix user making her first start since April. She has a prior win over the Saratoga lawn and could be a better type this time around.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:46 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-In Sky We Trust; 2-Handsome Cat; 10-No More Talk
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: In Sky We Trust may be as good as anything in this highly challenging affair, so at 5-1 on the morning line the Parx shipper with decent recent form is worth a play. The Scott Lake-trained gelding should settle in the second flight and then have his chance when given his cue at the quarter pole. Handsome Cat plummets from the first level allowance ranks to this $16,000 seller in his first start since April, so his current condition is questionable. This kind of a maneuver isn’t too abnormal for the David Jacobson barn, so who knows what kind of shape he’s in? No More Talk is comfortably drawn outside, makes a trainer change to Wayne Potts, and returns to his claim level. Remarkably, this will be career start number 87 (with 14 wins), so the old timer has to be respected, even though his last three outings may indicate that he’s lost a step or two. Still, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. taking the call, you have to toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:18 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Durante; 1-Lafitte’s Fleet
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the fifth race, an entry-level allowance sprint over six furlongs. Durante won his last two starts by the same margin (six lengths), the first at Los Alamitos and then most recently at Penn National, and today he moves back to the Majors with speed figures that say he is fast enough to extend his streak. Owned and trained by David Jacobson, the son of Distorted Humor lands the ideal outside post, allowing jockey Manny Franco to pop and go or stalk and pounce, depending upon the shape of the race. Lafitte’s Fleet won a $40,000 claimer in clever style at seven furlongs last month and today is protected by Rudy in a sign of confidence. The main concern is whether today’s six furlong trip might be a tad sharp for him.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:52 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Leadership Ability; 5-Pinstripepizzo
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Lem Me Drink.
Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Leadership Ability had a prior race almost a year ago at the Big A and didn’t run terribly, winding up fifth, beaten less than four lengths, in straight maiden company. She returns unprotected in this $40,000 maiden claimer, hardly a sign of confidence, which make us think her connections are culling her from the stable and really don’t care if they lose her. Pinstripepizzo shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time and may have found her winning level. Her numbers when chasing much tougher straight maiden company aren’t bad, and while she’s a one-paced filly without any real turn of foot she could produce an effective late kick against this group.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Tax Implication; 7-Surge Capacity
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Heavenly Sunday; 8-Prerequisite.
Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Chad Brown trains four of the eight entrants in this year’s renewal of the Lake Placid Stakes-G2 for sophomore fillies. Surge Capacity and Tax Implication finished one-two in the recent Lake George Stakes-G3 over yielding ground similar to what they may have to deal with today, with ‘Capacity winning by three quarters of a length after enjoying a pristine, ground-saving trip. This time, based on the post position draw, it might be ‘Implication who enjoys the golden journey. They’re tough to separate and we’ll include them both, but this time we’ll give Tax Implication a slight nod on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 5-1.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:02 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Gerrymander; 1-Movie Moxy; 7-Nostalgic
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Favor.
Forecast: Gerrymander gets another shot at Movie Moxy in this main track third level allowance miler for fillies and mares. The former finished behind ‘Moxy when they squared off at Belmont Park in late June but this time there is a very slight shift in the weights favoring Gerrymander, who had a subsequent run over this track (a close third) and those two factors combined may be enough to make up one and three-quarter length difference. The daughter of Into Mischief does her best work on the front end and projects to be the controlling speed, so we’ll put her on top but use both in our rolling exotics while also tossing in Nostalgic, a strong runner-up (beaten a neck) over this track and distance in the same race Gerrymander just finished third in.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:45 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Randomized
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Wet Paint
Forecast: The Alabama Stakes’ 10 furlong distance might be stretching her limit, but the rapidly developing and extremely fast Randomized has a chance to grab control early and keep on going based on her visually impressive and highly rated win in the Wilton Stakes over a mile on this main track last month. She loses Irad Ortiz, Jr., who understandably sticks with Gambling Girl, but under Jose Rosario this Chad Brown-trained daughter of Nyquist will have every chance as the controlling speed to wire the field in this prestigious Grade-1 event for sophomore fillies.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:19 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Verbal; 5-Whisper Not; 2-Napoleonic War
Backups/Savers/Underneath:
Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Verbal stayed on gamely when taking the worst of the race flow in a similar second level allowance turf miler at Belmont Park and today adds blinkers after almost two months of rest and a strong, healthy series of workouts in the interim. The Chad Brown-trained colt is fast on figures with plenty of room for further development, so we’ll give him a slight edge on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2. Whisper Not and Napoleonic War, one-three finishers in a similar turf router here in late July, have credentials to be a strong threat as well and are worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 10-Henson
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Henson appears a likely winner no matter what surface this race is contested over. Making a monumental trainer change to Brad Cox via private purchase, the son of Verrazano was a credible third (beaten a length) in an off-the-turf state bred maiden special weight dash last month but today shows up in a maiden $40,000. We have to believe he’s going to be scratched, as this drop into a seller makes absolutely no sense, unless he recently sprung a leak, in which case he probably won’t pass the morning vet inspection. Best advice is to stay away.
