“WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – SARATOGA
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).
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SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:
FIRST RACE – Post: 1:05 ET
Top Pick: 3-Alibi Ike (5-1)
There appears to be two main players in this maiden juvenile sprint on grass, including the well-backed Keeneland failure Alibi Ike, who should have a proper chance to right the ship. Backed down to even money in his debut in April, the Wesley Ward-trained colt lost whatever chance he may have had at the start in a race that we’ll simply dismiss and expect that the son of Munnings can show his true form this time around in. A sharp recent workout on turf gives hope that he’ll perform up to expectations with the surface switch, and with one of the stable’s go-to riders Irad Ortiz, Jr. taking the call there should be a reasonable gamble available at or near his morning line of 5-1. The intriguing Irish invader 4-Alexis Zorba is a “must use” on your ticket as well. Runner-up in both of his European starts during the spring, the Joseph O’Brien-trained colt earned legitimate Timeform Ratings to indicate he has a fair amount of promise and should fit nicely at this level on this circuit.
SECOND RACE: Post: 1:39 ET
Top Pick-6-Oglethorpe (5/2)
Didn’t get the best of trips when second in his debut in the mud at Belmont Park in an off-the-turfer in early June but today switches to what we suspect is his preferred surface (grass) and should make the most of the opportunity. The son of Arrogate was impressive in a recent local turf workout and seems certain to step forward in a major way under today’s conditions for a barn that has strong stats with the second-time starter angle. With Joel Rosario riding him back and at 5/2 on the morning line, the Danny Gargan-trained colt seems quite likely to provide plenty of competition for even money favorite 1a-Growth Capital, who has burned money in each of his three prior starts and is certain to get the bulk of the action again today.
SARATOA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:
(Races 1-5)
1st race: 3-Alibi Ike; 4-Alexis Zorba
2nd race: 6-Oglethorpe; 1a-Growth Capital
3rd race: 2-Hammerin Aamer; 5-Amount
4th race: 8-Beachfront Bid
5th race: 6-Our Country; 7-Girl Dad; 8-Future Victory; 9-Sonic Speed
(Races 6-10)
6th race: 4-Slow Decision; 1-Rita’s Angel. Backup: 8-Lucky Mucho Man
7th race: 1-Keepmeinmind
8th race: 6-Sassy Melissa; 5-Palace Gossip; 1-Makin My Move
9th race: 6-Emminent Victor; 5-Dolce Zel. Backup: 4-Koala Princess; 8-Skims
10th race: 8-Let Her Inspire U; 2-Queen Arella
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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:
FIRST RACE:
Clubhouse (July 11, Saratoga, 4f, :49.2bg TT). Grade: C
Gate drill with (Don’tforgetaboutme, worked under dame’s name, 4f, :49.1bg TT) and wasn’t asked much early but steadily fell back to more than a length behind when eased up after a half mile, some coaxing late. Was hoping for better, let’s see an outing first.
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Alibi Ike (July 11, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b TT TC DU). Grade: B-
Breezed through the lane inside Margaret Burbidge (4f, :50.3b TT TC DU), with the pair finishing head-and-head, neither one asked. Moves well on the lawn and seems likely to improve over the sod after failing at even money sprinting on dirt at Keeneland in his debut in the spring.
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Appraise (July 15, Saratoga, 4f, :50.2b). Grade: B-
May have been a tad second best outside Indemnity (same time) in team turf drill around dogs over the turf training track, neither one asked at any stage for C. Brown. Was given plenty of a.m. work at Monmouth Park before arriving at the Spa, and appears to have some run, but how much is difficult to gauge.
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Bat Flip (July 17, Saratoga, (5f, 1:01.3b). Grade: C+
Second best inside Kaling (same time) for T. Pletcher while traveling out to the 7/8 pole, light coaxing, almost a length back at the conclusion of the drill, 1:02 flat on our watches. Would tend to want to see one first from the $350,000 yearling purchase by Good Magic.
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SECOND RACE:
Clubbing (July 16, Saratoga, 4f, :49.4b TT). Grade: C+
Second best outside Creed (same time), easy early, asked late (workmate breezing) in steady training track drill for Shug, not particularly impressive. Is a one-paced gelding by Orb.
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Indemnify (July 15, Saratoga, 4f, :50.2b). Grade: B
Maybe a tad the best inside Appraise (same time) while traveling out to the 7/8 pole under a nice hold on the dirt training track dirt for C. Brown. Certainly has some ability and is very likely to make his debut on the lawn, at which time we’ll find out what he’s made of.
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Oglethorpe (Saratoga, July 15, 4f, :49.2b TT TC DU). Grade: B+
Stride-for-stride outside Secret Time (same time) around dogs over the training track turf course and did it nicely without being asked, finishing with plenty left while galloping out willingly into the backstretch. Showed promise in his debut in an off-the-turf muddy track miler at Belmont Park when solid runner-up and seems likely to produce a forward move with that effort behind him.
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THIRD RACE:
Amount (July 7, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b). Grade: B-
Breezed inside Bal Harbour (same time), neither one asked, both continuing out with some energy to the clubhouse turn and into the backstretch while under a nice hold. Below his best form in his most recent outing but remains in good shape.
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FOURTH RACE:
I’m Glad (July 15, Saratoga, 4f, :52.1b TT TC DU). Grade: B-
Went without blinkers (scheduled to add them for next start) in solo training track turf breeze around dogs for J. Thomas, ridden a bit through the lane. Nothing special, hard to envision improvement without a class drop next time out.
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FIFTH RACE:
Bricco (July 14, Saratoga, 4f, :50.3b TT). Grade: B
Cruise control through the lane in solo training track breeze looking nice and willing. Has raced exclusively on grass so far but seems to get over dirt just fine. In good shape.
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SEVENTH RACE:
Keepmeinmind (July 16, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00b). Grade: A-
Sharp, eager, and full of run while coming through the lane under a strong hold before traveling out to 7/8 pole with a ton left in the tank. Been away for almost a year, appears to be coming back in top shape and perhaps even better than when last seen. Has a chance to be a very good older horse after making his mark in the 3-year-old ranks last year.
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Complete Agenda (Saratoga, July 9, 4f, :48b). Grade: B
Slightly best over Mezcal (same time) while breezing inside with plenty left and galloping out nicely into the backstretch while drawing clear from workmate. Was overmatched in the Peter Pan Stakes after breaking his maiden in his previous outing; would be wise to face first-level allowance foes next time,
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Fighter in the Win (July 8, Saratoga, 4f, :49b TT). Grade: B
Breezing work while even but perhaps a bit the best outside next out winner Credit Event (same time) for C. Brown, always in hand while coming from the quarter pole to the wire in :24.3 on training track. Ran well when a close fifth in his U.S. debut and has every right to produce a forward move in a similar event next time.
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NINTH RACE:
Dulce Zel (July 9, Saratoga, 4f, :49.3b TT). Grade: B
Well in hand in easy breeze alongside Marvelous Maude (same time) for C. Brown, plenty left late. Freshened since May and appears in fine fettle.
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Sister Lou Ann (July 17, Saratoga, 3f, :36b). Grade: B
Easy solo breeze while under a nice hold throughout while maintaining her edge. Talented sophomore filly arrives from South Florida fresh from a turf stakes win but will need to produce a forward move to be effective on this circuit.
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