“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Poseidon’s Mist; 6-Awesome Czech; 7-She Takes Cash.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The opener is a New York-bred juvenile filly sprint with eight entrants, seven of which are first times starters. In other words, it’s a complete raffle. Poseidon’s Mist is a sneaky shipper from Monmouth Park with a right to win early from a stable that does well with debut runners. The works look decent, and she lands the cozy outside draw, so have a hunch she’ll turn up a live item Awesome Czech shows a healthy series of drills over the Belmont Park training track to indicate she’s plenty fit. Maybe this daughter of Mendelssohn can run some. The same can be said for She Takes Cash, a Street Boss filly with a solid gate work (4f, :47.4bg) earlier this month but from a barn that very rarely wins with a first timer. Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Dreamlike
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Dreamlike is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite (he’ll go lower) in this maiden router based on his excellent third place finish (beaten a head) in the Wood Memorial S.-G1 in his most recent outing in early April. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt buries this field with a repeat of any one of his first three starts, all of which resulted in in-the-money finishes with powerful speed figures that tower over this field. He’s a clearly a no-value rolling exotic single.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-G. Laurie
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Lifelovennlaughter
Forecast: This analysis is for turf only. G Laurie began her career with a dominating maiden score over an outclassed maiden juvenile field at Colonial Downs last summer and was so impressive that she was sent off at 3-1 the following month in the Natalma S.-G1 at Woodbine. Third with traffic trouble through the lane before being beaten less than two lengths, she next ventured to Santa Anita for the 11-runner Blue Norther S. in December, a strong listed affair in which she was sent to the post as the 9/5 favorite. Obviously, something went amiss, and she was eased midway on the turn, after which she was sent home for some rest and recuperation. Today she launches a comeback in this entry-level allowance middle distance turf affair restricted to 3-year-old fillies, and the Graham Motion barn shows outstanding stats with layoff runners. Additionally, the daughter of Oscar Performance won her debut so we know she can fire fresh, and the work tab at Fair Hill looks solid. The first-time Lasix user is listed at 4-1 on the morning line and offers good wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at or near that price.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Randomized
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Sacred Wish
Forecast: Randomized bit off more than she could chew in the Acorn S.-G1 and wound up a well-beaten fifth, almost 11 lengths behind top class Pretty Mischievous. She is realistically spotted in the listed Wilton Stakes over a mile, shows a bullet half mile breeze (4f, :48b, fastest of 32) over the Belmont Park main track since raced and beats this field with a repeat of her fast, highly rated maiden win at Aqueduct in late March, though at 7/5 in a five-runner affair she’ll not likely offer a great deal of wagering value.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Street Rod; 7-Whiskey and Wine; 9-Empire Sky
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This analysis is for turf or dirt. Street Rod enters this New York-bred maiden special weight turf sprint with two recent bullet drills at Laurel Park, most recently a :47 flat half mile breeze (fastest of 39 for the distance) just six days ago. The War Dancer gelding has the pedigree to handle grass and since there’s not much to excite among the known element, let’s go with a fresh face at 6-1 on the morning line while using two others on our main ticket that contain long shot angles in their chart. Whiskey and Wine could be better than shown, though it requires a leap of faith to get past his first two outings in which he has managed to finish ahead of just one horse while beaten a combined 42 lengths. The More Than Ready colt broke slowly, raced wide and gave out in his debut on dirt and then finished last of 10 when encountering early trouble from a poor draw in open company when facing a serious group that included the extremely talented Carl Speckler. This state-bred group offers no such opposition, so with the turn back to a sprint and bullet recent workout at Monmouth Park (:4f, :48b, fastest of 19) Shug’s colt could easily be a whole lot better than shown. Empire Sky has hit the board in seven of eight starts without yet winning but he figures to at least hit the board and against this group might even break through win a win.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Shutters; 5-Al’s Rocket
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This analysis is for turf only. Al’s Rocket looks fairly solid in this first level allowance middle distance inner turf affair event though he’s shown a disturbing habit of wanting to finish second or third (seven times) rather than win (once) in his 12 race career. The Todd Pletcher trained gelding likes to settle in mid-pack and then grind away, and his recent strong speed figures tell us that he’s overdue for another win. But can you trust him? Shutters has numbers that fit very well, and with just six career outings (with three wins) the Mark Hennig-trained gelding has a bit more upside than ‘Rocket. Sparingly raced throughout his career, the 5-year-old son of Get Stormy was off slowly and then lacked a clear path close home when an unlucky fourth in the same race ‘Rocket exits. Not the handiest of sorts and trouble-prone throughout his career, he can win with an aggressive ride from Johnny V. (who got to know him last time out) and a clear path from the quarter pole home.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-No More Talk
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Towing
Forecast: Old pro No More Talk finished third at 7/5 in a $32,000 seller at Belmont Park 12 days ago and drops 50% in value to the $16,000 level while still remaining above his claim price ($12,500) for trainer David Jacobson. A 14-race winner (with 12 seconds and 12 thirds), the nine-year-old gelding shockingly will be making his first start at the Spa (a bucket list move?) in his 86th career start and is reunited with Irad Ortiz, Jr., who was aboard in victories two and three races back. Let’s hope the son of Not For Love can bounce back, though we wouldn’t take much less than his 2-1 morning line.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Dot’s Dollar; 4-Happy Farm
Backups/Savers/: 3-Cees Get Degrees.
Forecast: This $50,000 main track claiming sprint for older horses has several formidable veterans in the field. Dot’s Dollar is genuine, consistent, solid in the speed figure department, and a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga main track. After winning his second allowance condition at Belmont Park just six days ago, he is wheeled back on short rest by the always aggressive Linda Rice, so he seems the logical top pick, though at 8/5 on the morning line there really is much we can do with him. Happy Farm, with 13 career wins on his resume, has numbers that fit and could be dangerous on the raise for new connections following a $40,000 claim last month. He’s a two-time winner at the Spa and switches to Flavian Prat, who has gotten excellent run out of him in the past. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s a gambling number.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Love Reigns
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This analysis is for turf only. Love Reigns looked hopelessly beaten at the furlong pole when stuck in heavy traffic in the Limestone Stakes at Keeneland but suddenly got clear and quickened like the top class turf sprinter that she is and was up in time in her seasonal debut in April. Though she passed on a trip to Royal Ascot last month, the work tab looks healthy so we’re expecting another major effort at a short price from the Wesley Ward-trained sophomore. She was a stakes winner with complete authority over this course and distance last year and on pure numbers she is simply too fast for this group.
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 11-Encourage; 3-Hilliard
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Splendid Summer; 12-My Romeo Lima
Forecast: This analysis is for turf only. The nightcap is deep with contention and requires considerable usage in rolling exotic play. Encourage has more room for improvement that most of the others (he’s only raced nine times) and off his best race the Ken McPeek-trained gelding should be a major player. This is his first time in a seller (where he belongs), so if he can negotiate a decent trip from the 11-hole he can spring a mild surprise at 5-1 on the morning line. Hilliard closed against soft fractions when narrowly missing in a similar affair at Belmont Park last month and based on that race may be the one beat, though his 2-for-21 lifetime record and his previous weak form over the Saratoga lawn makes him hard to trust.
