“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1a-Index Fund; 4-Wicked Again
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Ludwig.
Forecast: Index Fund displayed some promise when narrowly missing in his debut last November, but then had to be stopped on. The Good Magic colt returns as a first time Lasix user for trainer Chad Brown (superb stats with layoff runners) while displaying a steady and healthy series of workouts – View Video – to have him fit and ready. He’s coupled in the wagering with Opportunity Set but the 6/5 morning line price is strictly of his doing. Wicked Again earned a strong number when a distant fourth in his second career start last April at Keeneland and returns off a four month vacation for trainer Steve Asmussen as the one to fear most. The son of Gun Runner probably can’t beat a real good maiden, but it make take one to beat him.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Cptbobstwentynine; 3-Glacial Power
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This maiden juvenile sprint is restricted to horses that sold for a maximum $50,000 (or were bought back for that price or less) at auction last year. Usually, these maiden affairs are infinitely softer than races that do not contain such a restriction. Cptbobstwentynine has been training at Monmouth Park so we have no video, but he’s a first timer from the Todd Pletcher barn and therefore must be respected. The tab looks decent enough, and with Irad Ortiz, Jr., taking the call the son of Air Force Blue looks like a major player. Glacial Power overcame a slow start to finish willingly when fourth in his debut at Monmouth Park and with that effort behind him he certainly has a right to produce a forward move. We suggest you tread lightly in a “nothing would surprise us” event.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bourbon’s Hope; 4-Zertz
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Bourbon’s Hope appears to have improved a bit of late and is realistically spotted in this open $10,000 claimer after just winning a restricted (nw-3) $14,000 seller at Belmont Park in late May. His numbers are okay, nothing great, but should make him competitive in this league. Zertz drops a notch and shortens from a mile at Belmont Park last month. He projects to be a late threat and has hit the board in 17 of 28 career starts, so he’s reasonably reliable when properly placed.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Pinestrippizzo; 10-Berning Honor; 3-Lem Me Drink
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Pinstripepizzo drops into a maiden claimer for the first time and because she’s less exposed than most of the others we’ll put her on top in this inner turf router for $40,000. The daughter of City of Life isn’t much, but who in here is? Berning Honor is poorly drawn outside but is another that fits with these based on her best numbers. She needs to be held up early and produced late. Lem Me Drink is solid on numbers but already has had 11 chances and has finished in the frame only twice. She’s a one-paced grinder but in a soft field has a reasonable look.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Patient Capital; 1-Perfect Day
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Patient Capital exits a series of tougher races and this class drop to the restricted (nw-3) $50,000 claiming level may prove to be a winning maneuver. The Michael Maker-trained gelding has run well over this main track in the past and projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout. He’s more than fast enough on pure numbers to beat this group. Perfect Day has a look if he can navigate a decent trip from his rail draw. He, too, shows up in a seller for the first time and has plenty of speed, so if he breaks with his field the son of Competitive Edge should have his chance. However based on speed figures, he’ll need a big forward move to worry ‘Capital.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Happy Bob; 3-Assertive Attitude; 6-Run Diem Z
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Fast Boat to Skye.
Forecast: This bottom rung maiden claimer looks a bit treacherous, so we’ll spread the race but otherwise pass. Happy Bob has numbers that can win and drops from his claim price ($40,000) to $20,000, so if he passes the vet check he’ll be a strong threat in a weak affair. The Linda Rice barn is very aggressive with its claiming stock, so this class drop might not look as suspicious as it would for another stable. Assertive Attitude finished second in his debut in maiden special weight company at the Big A last November but then was turned out. He returns for a modest tag, not exactly a ringing endorsement, and will race with Lasix and as a first time gelding for a low percentage outfit. Who knows what he’ll do? Run Diem Z flashed speed before fading in his debut on turf at Belmont Park but has a right to be fitter and stronger today. Toss him in at 10-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Elusive Princess; 9-Selenaia
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-American Sonja.
Forecast: Elusive Princess finished an excellent second in the Prix Saint-Alary-G1 at Longchamp two races back and then was a respectable fifth of 15 in the French Oaks-G1. That form should be more than good enough to win this year’s edition of the Saratoga Oaks Invitational-G1 under fellow Frenchman Flavian Prat, who will give this talented filly the patient ride she requires. She’s listed at 7/2 on the morning line and seems just about right. Selenaia seeks her fourth straight win and is improving with every start, having most recently won the Honeymoon S.-G3 at Santa Anita with an impressive display of late speed. With another forward move today, the Irish-bred daughter of Sea the Moon should be quite competitive with our top pick.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-General Jim; 1-More Than Looks; 7-Nagirroc
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Ocean Vision.
Forecast: Let’s go with a price in this wide open renewal of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes-G2 for 3-year-olds. General Jim returns to grass (he won over this course last year) and overall has excellent form on turf. Though he was far below his best form when unplaced in the Woody Stephens S.-G1 at Belmont Park last time out, the son of Into Mischief previously won the Pat Day Mile-G2 at Churchill Downs with a triple digit Beyer speed figure, so on his best day Shug’s colt can be very good. Regular pilot Luis Saez knows him well, and in a race that projects to have moderate early splits he could find himself in an ideal stalking position and be set to pull off a mild surprise. More Than Looks has rapidly improving form, and this son of More Than Ready could easily be this good with another forward move. He’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and with some help up front could produce a dangerous late kick. Nagirroc has never finished off the board in eight career starts and should fire another big shot today. His numbers are just okay, but the son of Lea always must be respected.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Timely Conquest; 5-Missing Fortune
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Timely Conquest was a nice debut state bred maiden winner in the mud at a big price at Belmont Park in mid-June. Today we’ll find out if she’s just a wet track specialist. The Mark Hennig-trained daughter of Accelerate has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, retains Johnny V., and figures to be running on strongly late. Missing Fortune was a runaway winner with a career top number at Finger Lakes in her most recent outing and if she can repeat that performances in the Big Leagues the daughter of Mission Impazible will be dangerous right back. However, that will be no easy task based on her previous form.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Ignited; 1-Detroit City
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Foliage, 6-Deep Cover.
Forecast: Ignited is a Laurel Park invader with good recent form and speed figures that make him the one to beat in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming turf sprint. He’ll need to drop over and find a suitable spot in the second flight from his outside draw, but if he can the veteran son of Into Mischief looks capable of producing a winning late kick. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a bit of gamble. Detroit City makes his first start as a gelding, lands the good inside post, and exits a series of tougher allowance and listed stakes races. His form is a bit up and down but on his best day he’s right there with these.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Unleash the Power
Backups/savers: 2-Lord Flintshire; 6-Shinsun.
Forecast: Unleash the Power is a one-paced grinder trying a mini marathon trip for the first time and we suspect the son of Curlin will really enjoy the extra distance. In the frame with solid, consistent speed figures, the Al Stall, Jr.-trained gelding projects to be on or near the lead throughout in what very likely will be a slowly run race. At 3-1 on the morning line, we’ll make him a win play and the main punch in our various rolling exotics.
