“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Tireless; 5-Wally World; 8-Veracruzin
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Feltrinelli.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is transferred to the main track, we will pass. Tireless brought $875,000 as a yearling, has looked the part in his recent preparation for trainer Todd Pletcher and should be plenty fit for a big effort in his debut. His pedigree is okay, nothing great, so the son of Not This Time he must be one impressive individual. He’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line and probably is better than that. Wally World was entered but scratched last week in an off-the-turfer, so we know he’s ready. The Chad Brown-trained son of More Than Ready hasn’t been asked for much in the a.m. but moves like a colt with talent. Veracruzin, a Summer Front colt, is another that has gone about his morning business in a proper way and should be ready for a strong effort as well., The Kenny McPeek-trained colt hails from a barn that has weak stats with first time starters, but this colt looks a cut above the norm.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Vax; 4-Our Rosie Diamonds
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: In typical Linda Rice style, Vax was claimed last time out for $40,000 and returns in a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller. The Sharp Azteca filly, a distant third last time out, figures to beat this field if healthy, but who really knows? Our Rosie Diamonds missed by a neck in a $25,000 affair last time out but didn’t earn much of a number. She’s 1-for-15 for a reason. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics in a race that probably should be left alone.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Roses for Deb
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is transferred to the main track, we will pass. Roses for Debra just won the Caress Stakes-G3 over this course and distance from a similar field and will be odds-on to extend her winning streak to four in this year’s edition of the Smart N Fancy Stakes for fillies and mares. She has an ideal second flight, stalking style and can really kick it in when given her cue. Successful in six of eight career starts, the daughter of Liam’s Map is listed on the morning line at 50 cents on the dollar and on paper looks it.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Landbiscuit; 7-Speedy Hans
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is transferred to the main track, we will pass. Landbiscuit has finished in the frame in her last six starts but recently hasn’t been able to seal the deal, having wound up second in her most recent three outings. The good news is that her numbers are rising, and we’ve never considered her to lack a winning punch, so let’s operate under the assumption that she’s just been a tad unlucky, and that her genuine and consistent recent form will be rewarded today. Speedy Hans moves up a notch for new trainer Carlos David after being haltered for $25,000 out of the same race our top pick exits. The barn has good stats with this angle, so a forward move is likely at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Joking Way; 1-Prove Right; 1-Heldish
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Alternate Reality.
Forecast: This is a challenging extended sprint for older $50,000 claimers that requires coverage in rolling exotic play. Joking Way, acquired by Linda Rice for $50,000 out of a solid runner-up effort in mid-June at Ellis Park, returns on the raise in a sign of confidence and seems set to produce a career top effort for his high percentage connections. The pace scenario projects to be moderate, so we’re expecting this son of Practical Joke to be on or near the lead throughout. He’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line, a good gambling number. Prove Right needs to break well from the rail to avoid early traffic trouble and if he does he should be quick enough to gain a strong, forward position. He’s a first-off-the-claim ($50,000) for Patrick Reynolds (decent stats with this angle) following a sharp win over this track and distance last month. Heldish is comfortably drawn outside and should fire his best shot. The Monmouth Park invader has a winning race two back that charts pretty well with these.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Fierceness
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Anchises; 1-Air of Defiance.
Forecast: Fierceness, a son of City of Light from first out winning mare, has done everything in the morning like a colt with some quality and should be plenty fit enough for a major effort in his debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. A smooth mover and good athlete with more speed than he’s been allowed to show, the Mike Repole homebred looks like a very live item in a stronger than par six furlong sprint for juveniles. He’s listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite, so he’s no secret.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Headland
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Headland is the 8/5 morning line favorite and almost certainly will go lower in this allowance optional claiming ($62,500) sprint for older fillies and mares. A winner of her last pair with complete authority, she’s very fast on speed figures and has finished first or second in 21 of 39 career starts. She remains above her claim level, and while she might be changing hands (again) after this race, the Linda Rice barn likely has been enticed by the $156,000 purse that will make the two month investment quite worthwhile.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Avenue Niel/1a-Olkovshkha; 4-Anatolian
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is transferred to the main track, we will pass. We’re not sure if both will start, but the entry of Avenue Niel and Olkovshkha looks formidable in this first level allowance grass marathon for fillies and mares. ‘Niel may have been a bit short when third in her U.S. debut over this course and distance following an 11 month layoff earlier this meeting but should be fitter and tighter today for trainer Christophe Clement, who hits at 22% with the second-off-a-layoff angle. Her entry mate, from the Graham Motion barn, had an outing over yielding ground in her U.S. debut at Belmont Park in early July, and while never a real threat in that race she seems likely to step forward considerably. Anatolian, a solid runner-up in the same race Avenue Niel exits, is a one-paced grinder and may have less upside than the others but should at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Nest
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Idiomatic.
Forecast: Nest returned as well as she left when winning the Shuvee Stakes over this track and distance last month to extend her perfect streak to three-for-three over the Saratoga main track. A repeat of that race is more than good enough to handle this year’s renewal of the Personal Ensign Stakes-G1. Two easy breezes since raced should tick her over quite nicely. The Todd Pletcher-trained filly is listed at 4/5 on the morning line and probably will go a tick or two shorter.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Cowichan; 10-Arrasou
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is transferred to the main track, we will pass. Cowichan has finished in the frame in all five career starts, so it’s about time that she actually won one. The Irish-bred filly earned a career top speed figure when second in a productive race last time out at Keeneland in April and recent workouts indicate the Wesley Ward-trained sophomore should be ready for another forward move off the bench. Arrasou finished a distant third in an off-the-turf affair last month in her debut and is likely to improve a bunch today, assuming she gets a chance to do her thing on grass. Trainer Chad Brown hits at 30% with second timers, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides her back. ‘Nuff said.
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