August 18, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-White Chocolate; 6-Vivid Dreams
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Corey and Quinn; 4-Crushed Ice.
Forecast: White Chocolate flashed good ability in her only prior outing last December at Fair Ground when finishing third after a pace-pressing trip in a race that earned a decent speed figure. She returns with a healthy series of good workouts that should have her plenty fit for a winning effort off the bench, and from her cozy outside draw the daughter of City of Light should have every chance to pop the gate and pick a comfortable stalking position. Vivid Dreams was nosed out in a similar maiden sprint for older fillies and mares at Monmouth Park last month while finishing five lengths clear of the rest in what was her first outing since her debut the previous November. She attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., so the Todd Pletcher-trained daughter of Arrogate seems sure to receive a ton of play on the tote.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 ET Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-T Max; 5-Luna Loca; 4-Accel Rose
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’ll go three deep but with a very low degree of confidence in the second race, a low level ($14,000) restricted (nw-3) claiming sprint for fillies and mares. T Max, claimed for $30,000 at Ellis Park off a poor run at Ellis Park in mid-June, returns on the drop for trainer Linda Rice, as so many of her recent claims seem to do with the huge purses such as they are. The vets will go over her with a fine tooth comb in the morning, so there’s no guarantee she’ll make the race, but if she does, the daughter of Connect obviously is good enough to win at this level. However, at even money on the morning line, she offers no value. Her Linda Rice stablemate Luna Loca is in the same boat. Claimed for $40,000 two races back at Belmont Park and now entered at the bottom, the daughter of Malibu Moon was last of seven, beaten more than 21 lengths, at Belmont Park in early July and returns six weeks later as damaged goods, or so it appears. This is the kind of pattern that raises red flags with the state vet, so who knows if she actually makes it to the post? Accel Rose is fresh from a win at Monmouth Park, so while she may be on the slowish side, at least her pattern in healthy. The daughter of Accelerate earned a career top speed figure in that win so at 6-1 on the morning line should be included somewhere on your ticket for protection.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Dontmesswithtess; 4-Miss San Gabriel
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race was handicapped for turf only. We’ll pass if the race is moved to the main track. Dontmesswithtess may have moved a tad early when striking the front but then getting worn down late in a runner-up effort vs. similar at Belmont Park last month. With Irad Ortiz, Jr. staying aboard, the daughter of Creative Cause should be capable of producing the last run in this inner turf miler for starters allowance fillies and mares. Miss San Gabriel, first off a $50,000 claim by George Weaver and protected today, is a major player seeking her third straight win and a “must use.” The sophomore daughter of Temple City has rising speed figures with a likelihood of another forward move and most likely will employ the same gate-to-wire tactics that produced her two recent tallies. The projected pace flow looks favorable to her. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:39 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Rhiannon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Stunningly.
Forecast: Rhiannon brought $550,00 at the 2020 Keeneland yearling sales and finally makes it to the races in this main track miler for maiden special weight fillies and mares. By Medaglia d’Oro from graded stakes winner Auntie Joy, the Chad Brown-trained filly has done everything in the morning like a high quality prospect and has been given a foundation that should have her plenty fit and ready for a winning performance first crack out of the box. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of speed signed on, so with an alert break it wouldn’t be surprising to see he on or near the lead from the get-go. This is a better than par race for the level, so the task won’t be easy, but she’ll offer a reasonable gamble at her morning line of 9/2.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:12 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Nobel; 5-Royal Spirit; 6-Catch That Party
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race was handicapped for turf only. We’ll pass if the race is moved to the main track. Nobel arrives fresh off the plane for new trainer Brendan Walsh in this entry level allowance middle distance turf affair and brings a resume from England that makes him a fit at this level on this circuit. He’s won on both grass and all weather overseas and has solid Timeform Ratings, but the concern is that his best races have come when he’s established the running and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to secure his preferred trip against this group. Royal Spirit has good, consistent recent form and projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking trip. The son of Into Mischief shows a prior win over the local lawn and a nice recent breeze to tick him over following a runner-up effort in an off-the-turfer last month. Catch the Party produced a non-effort when far back in the same off-the-grass race that ‘Spirit exits but his turf form is strong and makes him a solid contender with anything close to his best race.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:46 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Dancing Mischief; 1-Frozen Four.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race was handicapped for turf only. We’ll pass if the race is moved to the main track. Dancing Mischief and Frozen Four finished two-three in a similar state-bred maiden router over this course and distance earlier this month and are the main players in this modest affair. ‘Mischief ran the better of the two but had the benefit of a prior run, while ‘Four was making his debut and therefore might have a bit more room for improvement. They’re tough to separate, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:20 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Red Run; 5-Costa Terra
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Speed Bias.
Forecast: Red Run faced considerably tougher competition in his last two starts, most recently finishing fourth in the Suburban S.-G2 last month and before that winding up third in the Brooklyn S.-G2. This drop to the two-other-than level could allow this Gun Runner colt to regain his winning form, though his overall record of 2-for-17 makes him a somewhat undependable. Costa Terra earned a career top speed figure when missing by a neck and finishing 11 lengths clear of the rest in an off-the-turf race here earlier this month. A repeat of that effort in this 9.5 furlong main track event makes him the one to fear most.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:58 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-No Nay Mets
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Fandom.
Forecast: This race was handicapped for turf only. We’ll pass if the race is moved to the main track. No Nay Mets demolished his outclassed foes in the Tyro Stakes at Monmouth Park last month and anything close to that performance will make him hard to beat. The George Weaver-trained colt is the logical favorite at 7/5 on the morning line, though he’ll probably have to work a little harder during the early stages of this race after enjoying a soft pace-setting trip last time out. Despite not offering much in the way of wagering value, we’ll give him the main push in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:34 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Prisoner
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Prisoner vans in from Monmouth Park where he recorded a career top speed figure in a four length score in a second level allowance sprint last month. Based on his numbers, he’s a strong fit at this $50,000 claiming level on this circuit, and with the versatility to win on the front end or from a second flight, stalking position, the son of Violence should be ready for another winning effort. At 7/2 on the morning line, he offers value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Rally Squirrel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Rally Squirrel was shrewdly claimed by Tom Amoss for a meager $10,000 out of a 10-length main track romp at Ellis Park in mid-June, and this raise to the allowance ranks in his first start for his new connections following a two month layoff is a clear sign of confidence. Based on speed figures, he absolutely belongs at this level, which carries a massive $95,000 purse. With two prior wins on grass, the son of Mshawish should be capable of reproducing his best on this surface, but if the race is switched to the main track, all the better. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
