July 21, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga 3rd race – Post: 2:13 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 5-Java Buzz.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Java Buzz makes his first start since March of 2023 for the Linda Rice barn (superior stats with layoff runners) and shows up in a $40,000 seller, a logical spot sprinting on grass. He shows a series of workouts that should have him cranked up and ready and he’s run very well off a layoff in the past. At this level, the son of Mshawish should simply be too fast for this group, assuming he returns as well as he left. Winless in three starts over the Saratoga turf course but in the frame in all three, he is reunited with “win rider” Flavian Prat and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. He’ll offer excellent wagering value at or near his morning line of 9/2.
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Saratoga 7th Race – Post: 4:26 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 2-Virgin Colada.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: In a wide open grass grab bag for juvenile fillies over a middle distance,
the first timer Virgin Colada seems like a live item. Certainly bred for grass (More Than Ready), she has been given a solid series of drills to have her fit and ready for a barn that has good stats with the first time starter angle, and she certainly looked the part in a team gate drill last week (:48.2bg, 26 of 147 for the distance) while under a stout hold throughout. We suspect she has plenty of early speed, so from her good rail post it would not be surprising that, assuming if she breaks cleanly, jockey F. Prat might try to put her on the lead. At 9/2 on the morning line, the C. Brown trained 2-year-old can be used in both the straight pool and in the various rolling exotics.
July 21, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
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Del Mar 2nd Race – Post: 2:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 4-J B Strikes Back
Other Contenders: none
Forecast: J B Strikes Back takes a logical class drop to the bottom rung maiden claiming ranks after a pair of non-threatening turf sprints, and this stretch out in trip and switch to the main track could propel him to a diploma-earning performance. The son of Goldencents has trained quite well of late (check out his drills at xbtv.com) and seems likely to produce a significant forward move against this modest gang. Additionally, he’s a first time gelding with speed that could separate him from the pack, and in a race lacking in early zip the D. O’Neill-trained sophomore could very well inherit the roll and the controlling speed. At 5/2 on the morning like we’ll make him a strong play in the win pool and a major push in the various exotics.
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Del Mar 3rd race – Post: 3:03 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 3-Gypsy Woman (Ire).
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Gypsy Woman (Ire) makes her U.S. debut for M. Glatt in this first level allowance affair for older fillies and mares and finds a suitable spot to win based on her European form in competitive middle distance outings when forced to carry a considerable amount of weight. Based on her triple digit Timeform rating in April, she’s more than good enough to handle this assignment and arrives after a career top effort when an excellent second while giving away 25 lbs. (not a typo) to the winner. She’s a first time Lasix user, picks up the barn’s “go-to” jockey A. Fresu, has the kind of tactical speed that should allow her to secure an ideal second flight stalking position. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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Del Mar 7th Race – Post 5:13 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 7-Richi (Chi)
Other Contenders: 5-A G Bullet
Forecast: Richi (Chi) made her U.S. debut in the Desert Stormer Stakes at Santa Anita a few weeks back and ran a winning race in debut, pressing the pace until deep stretch before weakening slightly in an outing she had every right to need. The Chilean bred filly seems certain to step forward with that tightener behind her, and this stretch out to a mile and a return to turf just adds fuel to the fire. A strong work tab since raced is icing on the cake for our top pick. A G Bullet is worth including on your ticket in a backup role. Though we suspect she prefers to sprint, the daughter of Twirling Candy can be the controlling speed if permitted to be, and on her best day she certainly is capable of taking this field a very long way.
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