JEFF SIEGEL’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW – DEL MAR – 8/4/24
August 4, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
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Del Mar 3rd race – Post: 2:59 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 9-Fly At Knight.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Fly At Night weakened late after cutting out the fractions as the favorite in a maiden special weight dirt sprint at Los Alamitos in her debut in late June but we’re willing to give her another chance in this turf dash at this shortened trip of five furlongs. The M. Glatt barn has superior stats with the second time starter angle, and we suspect this daughter of Sir Prancealot will thoroughly enjoy the surface switch. She’s worked well from the gate since raced, retains P. Frey, and clearly is the quickest of the quick based on our speed projection. She’s 3-1 on the morning line and at that price offers a reasonable gamble.
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Del Mar 9th Race – Post: 5:59 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 1-Moon Ice
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Moon Ice was an unlucky third in a similar turf sprint at Santa Anita last time out when he was bothered at the break and lost early position, then finished well but was too late as the favorite to be beaten just over a length. If he leaves cleanly from the rail today, the R. Baltas-trained gelding should be on or near the lead throughout while saving ground with every chance to make amends. With just one win from 12 career starts the son of He Be Fire N Ice may not be one trust, but all things being equal he’s good enough on his best to handle this assignment, so we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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JEFF SIEGEL’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW – SARATOGA – 8/4/24
August 4, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga 6th Race – Post: 4:02 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 6-Scythian
Other Contenders: 4-Twirling Lulu; 3-Boston’s Phinest.
Forecast: In a wide open maiden juvenile sprint for fillies, let’s put Scythian on top in a race in which nothing would surprise us. She’s a homebred daughter of Tiz the Law with a healthy series of workouts that includes a bullet :47 2/5 breeze last month that catches the eye and before that a three furlong drill (:36.2b) on video in which displayed a smooth and efficient stride while able to go much faster if asked. As this is written, the track condition is uncertain but based on pedigree she should be able to handle a wet surface if needed. At 5-1 on the morning line, the Bill Mott-trained filly seems as good as any and better than most.
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Saratoga 6th race – Post: 2:47 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 2-Italian Soiree.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Seven of the eight starters in this year’s renewal of the Adirondack S.-G3 are coming off winning efforts and the one that isn’t – Whatintheliteral – had a legitimate excuse when she stumbled at the start and lost her rider. Most are fairly close on speed figures, but from a visual standpoint Italian Soiree stood out. The daughter of Uncle MO settled into a stalking position outside and then accelerated with purpose when given her cue to draw off by more than five lengths without undue pressure. She gets an extra furlong and one half to work with today and with plenty of pace to chance seems likely to settle early and then quicken at the top of the lane. She’s listed at 9/2 on the morning line – a fair price – and if she improves as it expected the J. Terranova trained filly could produce a winning late kick.
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