Jeff Siegel’s Whgat You Need to Know – Del Mar – 8/11/24
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
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Del Mar 5th Race – Post: 3:58 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 9-Hot Girl Walk.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Hot Girl Walk tipped her hand in a solid debut performance last month when finishing a willing second in a similar abbreviated main track dash, and not much more will be needed today to earn her diploma. In that race, the C. Gaines-trained 2-year-old overcame a bit of a slow start to move within range approaching the turn and then stayed on with interest while not appearing to be totally cranked up. With that tightener behind her, the daughter of Bodexpress should be able to handle this moderate assignment in a race restricted to California-bred runners. A. Fresu stays aboard, so at 5/2 on the morning line she’ll offer reasonable wagering value.
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Del Mar 10th race – Post: 6:28 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 1-Divisible By.
Other Contenders: 4-Dealers Special/
Forecast: Divisible By, at 45-1, stepped forward dramatically in just his second career start when rallying with purpose to be second in a similar turf router for older maidens last month. The speed figure earned represented an 11 point improvement over his first outing – a grass sprint that was nothing more than a “get your feet wet” educational run – so if the N. Drysdale-trained sophomore improves again he should have an excellent chance to break his maiden. Likely to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from his favorable rail post, the son of Divisidero retains M. Smith and projects to settle somewhere in mid-pack before producing his best stuff from the quarter pole home. In a race in which many of these have had several chances without producing a win, this colt, with just two starts, certainly has a higher ceiling and thus at 6-1 on the morning line offers a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Saratoga – 8/11/24
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga 6th Race – Post: 3:53 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 4-Trading Strategy.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Trading Strategy hasn’t been asked for much in the morning but he should be fit enough to graduate at first asking based on the team gate breeze we viewed on video from July 28 over the Spa’s main track. In that drill, the son of Quality Road was always going easily while looking best over his workmate, and based on our watches he probably went several ticks faster than what the official final time (:48 2/5b) gives him credit for. A $600,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, the C. Brown-trained colt lands the stable’s “go-to” jockey F. Prat, and at this seven furlong distance he should be able to assert his superiority in the final stages. He’s listed at 5/2 ln the morning line and offers a gamble at or near that number.
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Saratoga 10th race – Post: 6:16 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 7-More Than Looks.
Other Contenders: 6-Ottoman Fleet (GB)
Forecast: It’s hard to guess what condition the turf course will be – we’ll assume it won’t be firm – but if More Than Looks can grab the surface he should be tough to contain late after wrapping up his sophomore season with a fast finishing performance (sixth but beaten two diminishing lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. With a pair of triple-digit Beyer figures in his last pair of starts, the son of More Than Ready is fast enough on figs to win this year’s edition of the Fourstardave H.-G1 if he’s fit, and the work tab certainly provides confidence that he’s ready to pick up where he left off. The barn has sensational stats (27%) with the comebacker angle and the presence of I. Ortiz, Jr. certainly is a plus as well, so at 7/2 on the morning line this 4-year-old colt is worth a confident play on the tote and in the horizontal and vertical exotics.
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