Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Saratoga – 8/3/24
August 3, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga 2nd Race – Post: 12:37 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 3-Probability.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: There is lots to like about the well-regarded first timer Probability in this maiden special weight sprint for state-bred juveniles. We’ve seen him in the morning and this smooth traveling, athletic son of Improbable – a $300,000 Saratoga purchase as a yearling – appears fit and ready following a healthy series of drills. Though bred to be more comfortable over a distance of ground, he’s displayed enough speed to believe he can sprint as well, and in what appears to be just a moderate field, the T. Pletcher-trained colt seems likely to turn up a hot item on the tote under I. Ortiz. Jr. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and strong push in the various exotics.
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Saratoga 6th race – Post: 2:47 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 1-Ferocious
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: The rail can be dicey for a first time starter in a sprint, so those who back the debuting Ferocious in this maiden special weight six furlong dash will be holding their breath at the break. But if he leaves with his field, this extremely talented son of Flatter should go about his business and earn his diploma. The long striding and extremely quick juvenile smoked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds at the OBS March preview and then brought $1.3 million through the ring, so much is expected. Trainer G. Delgado has just average stats with the first time starter angle, but this is no average colt. He’s listed at 7/2 on the morning line and will offer superior value at that price if you can get it.
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Del Mar – 8/3/24
August 3, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
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Del Mar 1st Race – Post: 2:00 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 8-Sea Runner.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: This maiden special weight mile grass affair for juvenile fillies came up fairly light, affording a golden opportunity for Sea Runner to graduate at first asking. She’s trained decently on dirt, but based on pedigree this half-sister to the phenomenal older turf horse Johannes should be many lengths better on grass. Since 2-year-olds are not permitted to breeze on the local lawn, we’re flying blind, but it’s a logical assumption that whatever she’s able to do on the main track she’ll do a whole lot better on the sod. The daughter of Gun Runner may not be totally fit or cranked up, but we’re hoping her inherent class will carry her through. The barn’s “go-to” jockey U. Rispoli lands the mount, so we’ll make her a play at or near her morning line of 2-1.
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Del Mar 6th race – Post: 4:30 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 5-Devil Be Me.
Other Contenders: 1-Takes Three; 3-Ferrariano.
Forecast: Devil Be Me took a ton of early heat in his recent sprint win at Santa Anita before reaching back for reserve energy that we didn’t think he had to hold sway through the lane while registering a career top speed figure. That race was a straight $50,000 claimer; today’s event, over a mile on grass, is a first level allowance affair for state-bred runners that doesn’t look any tougher. The son of Grazen has won around two turns in the past and based on the projected race flow he’ll be the controlling speed without having to be used too much. This will be his first try on grass, and offspring of Grazen usually do well on the sod, so a repeat score appears within range for the J. Mullins-trained gelding. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’ll offer a good gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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