JEFF SIEGEL’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW – DEL MAR – 9/2/24
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Del Mar 4th Race – Post: PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 2-Pavel Is Appealing
Other Contenders: 6-Rizzleberry Rose. 7-Om N Joy.
Forecast: Pavel Is Appealing has done some sneaky good work in the morning and should be a live item in this moderate maiden special weight sprint for state-bred fillies. The D. O’Neill-trained juvenile hasn’t been asked for her best speed and has more than held her own with her workmates, so in a field in which the known element isn’t particularly strong, let’s go with a fresh face. Her work tab suggests she should be plenty fit, so at 7/2 on the morning line she’s well worth a gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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Del Mar 8th race – Post: 5:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 9-Raw Ability (Ire)
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Raw Ability (Ire) was a visually pleasing debut winner in Europe over a mile last spring and has trained impressively for her U.S. debut, so much so that we’re expecting the J. Sadler-trained import to pick up where she left off in this first level allowance two turn affair. In that race at Gowran Park, she failed to leave with her field, but the Irish-bred sophomore still proved much the best des[ite racing greenly. With that bit of experience behind here, she should step forward considerably and outclass this field under one of the barn’s “go-to” riders, H. Berrios. Listed at 5/2, she’s a strong play on the tote and in all of the various exotics.
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Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Saratoga – 9/2/24
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Saratoga 8th Race – Post: 4:29 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 8-Big Invasion.
Other Contenders: 5-Arzak.
Forecast: At first glance it would appear that Big Invasion, once one of the better turf sprinters in North America, has slipped a bit, but circumstances have gone against in him in his recent starts and there should be an opportunity today to regain his winning form in this year’s renewal of the Harvey Pack Stakes. Freshened since early July and returning to his favorite turf course, the son of Declaration of War missed by a neck in this race last year and then concluded his 2023 campaign when falling short by that same margin in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. With some help up front and good racing luck along the way, the Christophe Clement-trained horse, with a history of firing fresh, should be rolling in the final furlong and is worth a gamble at or near his morning line of 6-1.
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Saratoga 10th race – Post: 5:43 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 2-Ferocious.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Ferocious was highly impressive in his racing debut, winning off by himself despite a slow break from the rail and then being stymied until he was able to extract himself at the head of the lane. You always have to wonder how much (if any) the wet track moved him up, but based on his local drills and his highly impressive appearance during the preview session of OBS March Sale the son of Flatter simply did what he was expected to do in his nearly eight length score. Nothing more should be needed today, and this extended sprint distance (seven furlongs) should accentuate his superiority. There’s plenty of wagering value at 8/5 on the morning line if you can get it.
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