JEFF SIEGEL’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW – SARATOGA – 8/2/24
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga 1st Race – Post: 1:10 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 2-Lady Pink
Other Contenders: 4-Two Sharp.
Forecast: Lady Pink has done some very good work in the morning leading up to her racing debut and this $700,000 Saratoga yearling purchase should be plenty fit for a top performance first crack out of the box. She’s a 2-year-old with plenty of zip, so if she leaves cleanly it wouldn’t be surprising to see her on or near the lead throughout. The C. Brown barn has solid stats with debut runners, so with “go-to” jockey F. Prat taking the call there is much in her favor at 3-1 on the morning line.
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Saratoga 8th race – Post: 5:10 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 3-Zverev.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: By all rights, Zverev should have (or at least could have) won his last three starts and in fact did capture two of those, a stylish maiden race three runs back and then last time a loaded allowance affair with a pace pressing trip that produced a career top speed figure. He was off the board two runs back, beaten less than five lengths, but suffered a brutal trip that cost him all chance. This step up to the Grade-2 level surely will test him, but this sophomore son of Oscar Performance is a highly progressive colt and could easily be this good. Regular rider J. Ortiz stays aboard for C. DeVaux and in a race without too much projected pace he should be able to draft into a cozy stalking spot and have every chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll make him an excellent gamble at 4-1 on the morning line.
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Del Mar – 8/2/24
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
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Del Mar 4th Race – Post: 5:30 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 8-Normandy Queen.
Other Contenders: 9-Vibez.
Forecast: We were quite impressed with the debut performance by Normandy Queen in mid-June at Santa Anita when the gifted daughter of Omaha Beach finished third behind the stakes-quality Hope Road in a fast, highly rated sprint for older fillies and mares. We thoroughly expect a significant forward move based on her sharp workout pattern since that race, and with the stretch out to two turns the M. Glatt-trained sophomore looks ready to graduate. The barn has powerful stats with the second times starter angle, and in a field without much early zip she could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed and never look back. We have her as the 5/2 morning line favorite despite the likelihood that Vibez will receive plenty of play, and at or near that price she’ll offer excellent wagering value.
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Del Mar 7th race – Post: 7:00 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 2-Helga Brandt (Ire)
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: English invader Helga Brandt (Ire) makes her U.S. debut in this maiden special weight turf miler for older fillies and mares and based on her European form she appears more than capable of handling this assignment. A first time Lasix user with three prior runs overseas – she was in the frame in her last pair – this lengthy filly with plenty of scope has good tactical speed and a decent turn of foot that should translate her all-weather form to the firm ground that Del Mar offers. Nicely drawn inside for trainer Carla Gaines, the daughter of Mehmas projects to settle behind the leaders and then blast home when the opportunity presents itself. We’ll make her a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
