July 26, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Saratoga
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Saratoga 3rd Race – Post: 2:18 ET. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection: 1-World Record
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Amsterdam S.-G2 attracted just five runners and given that none are particularly quick leaving the gate, we’re expecting World Record to be the controlling speed. A powerful gate-to wire maiden winner at Churchill Downs two races back (was eased up in the final sixteenth), the lightly raced colt most recently finished a better-than-looked third in the Mayfield Stakes after missing the break from the rail and then having too much to do behind Raging Torrent, arguably the best sprinting sophomore in North America at the present time. The R. Brisset-trained colt must leave cleanly from the rail, but if he does – and with the addition of blinkers we’re anticipating he’ll to do just that – the son of Gun Runner is good enough to handle this task based on his recent career top number and the highly favorable race shape. There’s excellent wagering value at his 3-1 morning line if you can get it.
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Saratoga 10th race – Post: 6:19 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 11-Rhetorical
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s go with a well-regarded first timer in this New York-bred one mile inner turf course maiden affair for older horses. Rhetorical did most of his preparation for this debut run in Kentucky but he did record a visually pleasing half mile training track breeze (:48b, fastest of 30 for the distance) last week to put him on edge. It should be noted that the son of Not This Time also impressed when breezing over the Saratoga lawn last year, but never started. A $320,000 Saratoga yearling buy, the W. Walden-trained gelding lands I. Ortiz, Jr. and is bred to handle any surface, so if the race comes off the grass for whatever reason, we suspect he’ll remain in the field. At 9/2 on the morning line, there’s a reasonable gamble to be had at anywhere near that price in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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July 26, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know
Del Mar
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Del Mar 1st Race – Post: 4:00 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 2-Recycleyourheart
Other Contenders: 6-Newport Deamz
Forecast: Bay area invaders have done well so far at the young meeting and NoCal shipper Recycleyourheart arrives fit and ready to graduate in this five furlong dash for maiden $50,000 state-bred juvenile fillies. She stayed on nicely to be fourth in her debut at Pleasanton last month in what we judged to be a better than par maiden special weight field for that circuit, and with a race under her belt she’ll have every right to produce a significant forward move. She’s drawn inside in post two, which seems like a good place to be so far this meeting, so with an expected ground saving trip the A. Mathis-trained filly will offer solid value at or near her morning line of 5/2. For protection, you may want to toss in the debuting Newport Dreamz, who has trained well enough for T. Yakteen to be considered the one to fear most.
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Del Mar 3rd race – Post: 5:05 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 8-Sir Tom
Other Contenders: 2-Nap
Forecast: In this California-bred maiden special weight sprint for juveniles, there appears to be no world beaters among those that have raced, so let’s try a first timer with credentials to fire a winning shot first crack out of the box. Sir Tom has looked pretty good in the morning and if he runs to his morning drills the son of Bodexpress should be capable of scoring at first asking. A :47 and change team gate drill at Santa Anita a couple of weeks ago in company with last weekend’s debut maiden special weight winner Nyce Going caught the eye, so this D. O’Neill-trained colt should have enough natural talent to outrun this group. With speed rider E. Maldonado taking the call, there will be no looking back. He’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line and is worth a gamble at that price.
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