Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Thursday, December 26, 2024
Santa Anita Park
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 11:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8-Mas Rapido; 3-Oscar Joy.
Backups : 4-Money Makes Money; 9-Count of Amazonia.
Forecast: Anything goes in these slalom events, but Mas Rapido has winning form over the course and a significant edge in speed figures, plus he’s turning back to a sprint and taking a realistic drop in class. Two easy breezes this month indicate he’s doing well enough, so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s the logical top pick. The main concern is that this barn can get very hot or very cold on a moment’s notice. Oscar Joy is a bit slower on figures than we’d prefer but the route-to-sprint angle is a positive factor for this prototype late-running sprinter and the switch to F. Prat certainly won’t hurt. We’ll include these two on our main track in a grass grab bag that requires as much protection as you can afford.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 11:30 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1-Madaket Road; 7-San Saba.
Backups : none.
Forecast: The winner of this maiden special weight sprint almost certainly will be one of the Baffert entrants and it will be quite surprising if they don’t finish one-two in some order. Madaket Road was considered talented enough to begin his career in the Bob Hope S.-G3 and ran quite respectably to be second behind Derby prospect Bullard when well clear of the rest in that seven furlong affair at Del Mar. Today he shortens up a furlong and drops into a maiden sprint, but that’s no ordinary maiden he’ll have to contender in San Saba, a $750,000 first timer by Justify who has trained like a future star leading up to his unveiling. ‘Road deserves top billing due to having had a prior outing but ‘Saba may be comparable to Bullard. There’s no gamble here; we suggest you double the race in your rolling exotics or better yet just pass the race.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 12:02 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Preem; 1-Slick (Ire).
Backups : 5-Lee’s Baby Girl; 2-Big Leap; 3-Lila.
Forecast: Preem was given a very easy run in her better-than-looked seventh place debut at Del Mar and should get serious today. The M. McCarthy-trained filly adds blinkers, retains J. Hernandez, and projects to be in the fray throughout with every chance from the quarter pole home. She’s a good athlete with a decent turn of foot and enough ability to be highly competitive against this group. We’ve listed her at 4-1 on the morning line but wouldn’t be surprised if she actually leaves higher. Slick (Ire) didn’t get the best of trips when in traffic much of the way before winding up a respectable sixth (beaten less than five lengths) in the Jimmy Durante S.-G3 at Del Mar last month. Back with maidens today, the Irish-bred juvenile filly lands the rail and owns enough tactical speed to put her inside draw to good use. She’s solid on numbers, has two smart training track drills since raced, and switches to U. Rispoli, so we’re expecting the P. D’Amato-trained import to step forward.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Stop Digging; 4-Nene Diamond; 9-Barbera.
Backups: 2-Berry Valley.
Forecast: Here’s a challenging main track sprint for entry-level allowance optional claiming state-bred fillies and mares that offers several possibilities. We’ll go three deep on our main ticket with one backup and hope to survive and advance. Stop Digging shortens in trip and might slightly prefer one corner, so if she can avoid trouble from the rail the S. Callaghan-trained sophomore should be able to make amends for her two recent two turn runner-up efforts as the chalk. She picks up F. Prat, so we expect she’ll go favored again. Nene Diamond, never off the board in four starts with two wins and a prior victory over this main track, retains regular pilot J. Hernandez and has the proper second flight style for this extended sprint trip. If ‘Digging doesn’t go favored, ‘Diamond will. Barbera, arguably the quickest of the quick, should pop and go from her outside draw and take this field a long way. Today’s extra half furlong is a concern, but if left alone early she could get brave late. Low profile connections ensure a square price.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Shocking Grey; 13-Sareeha.
Backups : 4-Word Play; 6-Kahuraru.
Forecast: Shocking Grey was a bit unlucky when getting clear too late before winding up third, beaten less than a length, in a similar mile grass event at Del Mar last month. She’s a proven horse-for-course – she’s never been off the board in six starts (with two wins) over the local lawn – and is reunited with J. Hernandez, who has ridden her twice and won both times. The yet-to-be officially announced declarations of Catalina Cocktail and Real Fire guarantee Sareeha (Ire) will draw into the race and despite her extreme outside draw the Irish-bred filly is the one to fear most. F. Prat stays aboard the M. Glatt-trained import, who prefers the front end but can stalk and pounce if the pace flow requires. Based strictly on numbers she’s right there with ‘Grey, and further improvement is likely for the high percentage M. Glatt barn.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Katonah; 7-Tarantino; 3-J B Strikes Back.
Backups : none.
Forecast: The first edition of the Laffit Pincay, Jr. S.-G2 (formerly the San Antonio) is a messy affair with nothing to trust and almost every entrant having some kind of look. Tread lightly, to say the least. Katonah has gone a bit stale of late, but blinkers go on for the first time, and he’s exiting three successive Grade-1 affairs, so against this considerably easier group he’s bound to wake up. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding always has preferred the local dirt track. Meanwhile, Tarantino is in peak form but against much softer company than what Katonah has been facing. Based strictly on recent speed figures, they’re pretty close to each other. J B Strikes Back looks cheap on paper, but his numbers are rising, he projects to bethe controlling speed, and he has trained like he has further improvement in him. Loose-on-the-lead price horses always are enticing, so we suggest you toss him in.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Johannes.
Backups : none.
Forecast: Johannes was worn down late by the furious far outside closer More Than Looks when second in the BC Mile-G1 but we’re not convinced he ever saw him coming. There’s nobody even remotely that good to worry about in this year’s renewal of the San Gabriel S.-G2, so we’ll be quite surprised if the Nyquist colt doesn’t regain his winning form at what surely will be odds-on. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply sit it out.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Msytik Dan; 1-Bentornato.
Backups : 8-Raging Torrent; 7-Stronghold.
Forecast: Mystik Dan makes his first start since a poor outing in the Belmont S.-G1 last June. It appears, based on his work pattern and published comments from trainer K. McPeek, that he’s trained like his old self. A runaway abbreviated sprint winner in Kentucky as a two-year-old in his second career start, the son of Goldencents should be quite effective at this seven furlong distance, especially with a ton of early speed projected to set things up for a closer. A small concern is that his resume suggests he prefers moisture in the ground, so lots will be learned today, but we’ll regard him as a “must use.” Bentornato ran lights out when second in the BC Sprint-G1, putting away his pace challengers before being tagged close him. There’s no doubting his class, but seven eighths might be stretching his limit, especially in a race that won’t likely afford him a breather at any stage. A relatively comfortable opening quarter mile will be critical to his chances.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 1-King of Gosford (GB)
Backups : 4-Siennois (Ire).
Forecast: King of Gosford (Ire) earned a career top number when narrowly beaten in the nine furlong Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar last month and nothing more should be needed today. This more favorable flat mile distance from his cozy inside draw guarantees an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip in what projects to be a slowly run event, what with Curlin’s Kaos an expected program scratch. Also, he’s back with F. Prat, who clearly fit him like a glove, having won both of starts under North America’s top stakes pilot. Already a three time winner over the local lawn (from four starts), the English-bred colt is listed as the program as the 6/5 morning line favorite and on paper looks every bit of that.
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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9-Hope Road; 7-One Magic Philly; 6-Kopion.
Backups : 4-Sugar Fish; 3-Kinza; 11-Cavalieri.
Forecast: This is one of the strongest, deepest renewals of the La Brea S.-G1 in recent years, and there are some extremely talented sophomore fillies who are listed at double digits on the morning line due to the depth of the lineup. Hope Road is unbeaten in four starts since joining the B. Baffert barn with excellent Beyer numbers in the mid-90’s, so she’s hard to fault. The daughter of Quality Road is plenty quick but doesn’t need the lead to win, so regular pilot J. Hernandez can play the break and improvise from there. Yes, she’s genuine, consistent, and very good, but so are several of the others, so her best will be required. One Magic Philly also is fast on figures and switches to F. Prat. She finished sixth in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint but was beaten less than three lengths and is better than that race shows. Kopion has really impressed in the morning for her comeback. She was a graded stakes winner over this track and distance last winter before tailing off but looks better now than then and will offer good long shot value on the tote. Use her somewhere.
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Santa Anita Race 11: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: A
Main Ticket: 8-She Feels Pretty; 4-Kathynmarissa.
Backups : none.
Forecast: She Feels Pretty dismantled a top class group of sophomore fillies in the QEII Stakes-G1 at Keeneland in her most recent appearance and a repeat of that race today is more than good enough to win again. Her :48 2/5 main track breeze here last Thursday was as visually impressive as you could imagine. Ten furlongs might be stretching her limit but we’re expecting that she’ll get the trip. The one she’ll have to be concerned about is the rapidly developing Kathynmarissa, successful in the Dueling Grounds Oaks in Kentucky in mid-September (she won with absolute disdain) and then breezing in breathtaking fashion since arriving in California. The daughter of American Pharoah looks ready for stardom, but is she ready for She Feels Pretty?
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