October 6, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita
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Santa Anita 7th Race – Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 1-Shea Brennan
Other Contenders: I’m a Bad Boy
Forecast: Shea Brennan was so visually impressive winning his debut that in his next start (the I’m Smokin Stakes) the son of Tough Sunday was knocked down to the odds-on favorite. But whatever chance he may have had was severely compromised by a poor start (he broke in a tangle and hit the side of the gate) and was never focused thereafter, eventually winding up third, beaten almost four lengths, while earning a Beyer speed figure 10 points lower than his winning performance. We’re going to draw a line through that race and anticipate that the P. D’Amato-trained juvenile will return to his best form in this allowance optional claimer. The rail post – same as he had last time out – is no bargain but if he leaves cleanly he’ll have every chances to fire his best shot. The morning line (5/2) makes him the second choice behind favored I’m a Bad Boy, and if we can get that number on the tote, we’ll take it.
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Santa Anita – 8th race – Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 3-Iron Man Cal
Other Contenders: 8-Cali Cat
Forecast: Iron Man Cal is a progressive son of Collected moving into stakes company after graduating with authority in a highly rated maiden special weight turf miler at Del Mar last month. The P. D’Amato-trained juvenile utilized an effective second flight stalking style and showed the ability to switch off and quicken late (final quarter in :23 2/5) over this same mile distance in victory. With enough speed signed off to set things up for a mid-pack closer, this race fits him like a glove, so at or near his morning line of 3-1 there’s an excellent gamble to be found in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Cali Cat also was pleasing in his maiden score at this trip and is worth tossing in as a saver.
