“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Eastern Ocean
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Flavius.
Forecast: Eastern Ocean ran well over this course and distance when a close fourth in a fast, highly rated race at this level, and a similar effort today should be good enough to regain his winning form. The veteran gelding picks up Frankie and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, stalking trip. Additionally, he’s a two-time winner over the local lawn and his recent numbers are better than par for this class.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Big Novel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Tizzy Twister.
Forecast: Big Novel has recent form that is far below her best, but we’ll give a chance to snap back with the switch to a grass course we know she likes. The John Sadler-trained filly also adds blinkers for the first time and the hood could help wake her up. The weight break she receives from bug boy Torrealba won’t hurt, either. We’re expecting the daughter of Mr. Big to be forwardly placed and then have every chance to tag the speed close home, and at or near her morning line of 4-1 she offers a reasonable gamble.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-K P Kwest; 2-El Oro.
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: K P Kwest lands the highly favorable outside draw in this below standard six furlong $20,000 sprint and is likely to regain his best form after a couple of disappointing runs facing much tougher foes. The number he earned when winning an allowance race at Sunland Park last spring would bury this group. That said, his morning line of 2-1 doesn’t promise much value. El Oro seems likely to improve at this much lower level but he’s a question mark sprinting on dirt. In fact, this will be his first ever race over a surface other than grass or all weather. He’s an “X” factor, so, we’ll toss him in.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Red Falcon; 5-Barton Strong.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Red Falcon got chewed up pressing a blazing pace and understandably faded late when a distant fourth in his debut earlier this month but moves to trainer Doug O’Neill’s barn via a $50,000 claim and can be expected to stick a whole lot better against this group. The son of Mastery switches to top speed jockey Edwin Maldonado and should have a strong say in the matter from start to finish. Barton Strong closed a gap without posing a threat in a highly rated dash at Los Alamitos first time out and though that race was a softer maiden $20,000 affair we find it encouraging that he’s being raised to the maiden $50,000 level in a sign of confidence. He’s eligible to produce a significant forward move with that bit of experience behind him.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Freedom Lass; 2-Tiergarten.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Freedom Lass should have enough pace up front to compliment her late running style and with two wins over the local lawn the veteran mare seems well-spotted for a major effort. She’s been facing tougher first level allowance foes recently but this return to the starter optional claiming ranks may be what she needs. Tiergarten was a tad disappointing when second as the 7/5 favorite in a similar affair earlier this month but she’s solid on numbers and could easily make amends with the switch to top rider Juan Hernandez. She has been first or second in three of her four starts over the local lawn and projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking, ground saving trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Signora Minister; 7-Crimson Rose.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Signora Minister is back sprinting where she belongs and can regain her winning form in this starter allowance main track dash for fillies and mares. She remains protected in a sign of confidence and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Crimson Rose, first off the claim for Steve Knapp, crushed a soft $25,000 field at Los Alamitos last month and did so with a career top number. She lands the cozy outside post and can pop and go or stalk and pounce depending upon the race flow. First or second in eight of 16 career starts and switching to top pilot Juan Hernandez, the daughter of Fed Biz should give our top pick a serious challenge.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:03 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference) :3-Noble Reflections; 4-Bran
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Noble Reflections clearly is the controlling speed and will take this field a very long way given the projected race shape. A three time winner over the local lawn that includes a triple digit Beyer victory over the Hillside course and distance last spring, the son Liam’s Map has trained well since finishing a close third in the Eddie D. Stakes last month and not much more will be needed today. The late running Bran finished a nose ahead of ‘Reflections in that race and is the one to fear most. A graded stakes winner with the perfect style for these slalom events, the John Sadler-trained import switches to “win rider” Umberto Rispoli and is certain to be heard from in the closing stages.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:33 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Loretta Lynn; 1-Safa.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Loretta Lynn, a product of Grazen and the superior California-bred sprinting mare Sunday Rules, makes her debut in this state-bred juvenile filly sprint with a series of workouts at Los Alamitos that indicates she has some ability. A recent five furlong team drill over the local main track was solid, and in a field that lacks depth she looks very much like a live item for trainer Phil D’Amato. Safa is the best of the known element and is the one to fear most, rail and all.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:03 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Guy Named Joe
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Miracle Mark; 4-Maximum Capacity.
Forecast: Guy Named Joe stayed on willingly when second over this course and distance in a similar maiden juvenile event earlier this month and with only slight improvement he should be capable of securing his diploma today. The son of American Pharoah projects to be forwardly placed while saving ground throughout from his rail post position and then have his chance to kick home when given his cue. He’s 3-1 on the morning line and will offer good value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at or near that price.
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