October 22, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Smiling Jojo; 3-Tom Seaver.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Stagger Lee; 2-Cody Boy.
Forecast: The Sunday opener is a challenging state-bred maiden turf sprint with several possibilities. A “spread” strategy is recommended. Smiling Jojo is bred for speed (Smiling Tiger) and apparently has plenty of it based on his last pair of workouts, so we suspect he’ll turn up a live item on the tote. He’s a bit high headed and may be a difficult ride, but if he breaks running the Brian Koriner-trained sophomore should make his presence felt. We haven’t seen Tom Seaver in the morning (he’s done most of his preparation at Los Alamitos), but we all remember his brilliant dam, Enola Gay, who was one of the fastest California-bred sprinters in the past several years. This will be her first foal to make it to the post, and it will be interesting to see if he can display at least some of his mother’s ability.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Sugar Fish; 2-Asian Matriarch.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Sugar Flash plummets from a pair of straight maiden races to this maiden $32,000 event, and with just four rivals in the field the daughter of Accelerate looks like the one to beat pretty much by default. The pedigree okay’s this longer distance and with the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle fully in play she shouldn’t have any excuses. Asian Matriarch was claimed out of a maiden $50,000 sprint in which she finished a somewhat lethargic fourth at 7/5. The new connections clearly aren’t thrilled with the acquisition, hence the class drop, but with back numbers that fit and with a big break in the weights she’s clearly the one to fear most.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Miss Lizzy; 5-Inner Beauty.
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Miss Lizzy is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and had legitimate excuses when closing well but too late in her most recent outing that resulted in a better-than-looked fifth place finish in a very fast, highly rated race for the level. This group should be well within her range, so let’s go with the Doug O’Neill-trained filly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 4-1. Inner Beauty is winless in six starts over the local lawn but she has dangerous early speed and is turning back from a route. If she can clear the field without pressure she could prove hard to catch.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bella Vienna; 1-Big Rainbow.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Bella Vienna displayed early speed before fading in her first two outings but today takes the always critical class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming. She should be able to shake loose early without pressure and then have every chance to complete the deal in the final stages. Big Rainbow is a one-paced grinder removing blinkers. If our top pick can’t see out the trip, she’s the one most likely to catch her.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Sorbet; 3-Ha Ha Gloria; 1-She’s Muy Muy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Sorbet brought $190,000 as a yearling, finished second in her debut facing straight maidens at Los Alamitos last month, and today shows up in a maiden claimer, not exactly a ringing endorsement from her connections. If she runs back to her first race, she’ll likely win, though at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not a lot of value to be found. Ha Ha Gloria displayed some talent when a good runner-up facing a decent field of maidens in her debut last November over the all-weather surface at Dundalk in Ireland. She’s not the smoothest of movers and the local workouts don’t inspire, but the barn has excellent stats with layoff runners and this Irish-bred filly certainly is bred to enjoy grass. Look for her to be running on late. She’s a Muy Muy has speed breeding (Goldencents) and could be a sneaky type for trainer Mark Glatt. She’s acted a bit green in her morning trials but if she leaves cleanly from the rail she’s likely to be in the fray.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Tiff With Jimmy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Tiff With Johnny drops to her lowest level ever and in this soft bottom-rung maiden claiming ($20,000) field the Mark Glatt-trained filly appears to have found her friends. She shortens to five and one-half furlongs, picks up bug boy Torrealba, and should be hard to catch, but at a short price. You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Americaredwhiteblu
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Don’t Swear Dave.
Forecast: Americaredwhiteblu has been away for more than a year but returns protected in a sign of confidence by trainer Mark Glatt, whose success with layoff runners is well-documented. Much faster that these on speed figures if he returns as well as he left, the first-time gelding is unproven on grass (winless in two prior starts) but has the pedigree to handle the lawn and we suspect he will. Regular rider Abel Cedillo keeps the mount, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make him an aggressive play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Matanzas Creek; 6-Central Dispatch.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Matanzas Creek has done some good work in the morning while preparing for his racing debut and from his comfortable outside draw the son of Empire Maker should have every chance to produce a winning effort in this extended sprint for older straight maidens. The barn’s “go-to” rider Ramon Vasquez take the mount for a trainer whose first timers often run better than they work. Central Dispatch is the one to fear most. A reasonable runner-up as the favorite in a similar event at Del Mar last time out, the son of Arrogate was more than six lengths clear of the rest, has trained well since, and appears headed in the right direction.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): City of Angels; 2-Touchdown Kittle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Dark Marcus.
Forecast: City of Angels was scratched yesterday out of a tougher race (a sprint) for this moderate nine furlong maiden turf affair that, and at least based on his pedigree he should offer much more agreeable conditions. With the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle and showing significant improvement in the speed figure department between his first and second starts, the Mike Puype-trained gelding boasts a strong, healthy work tab in recent weeks to indicate he’s ready to step forward again. Look for him to settle in the second flight and then have every opportunity from the quarter pole home. Touchdown Kittle is another trying a distance of ground for the first time, but in his case he’s certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Whether or not he can run this far is questionable, but if he can get the trip it’ll most likely be in his first attempt.
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