October 2, 2022
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Pride of the Nile; 4-Dash Away
Backups/savers: 1-Fourth Street
Forecast: Pride of the Nile was thought enough of by her connections to debut in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar last month and she did well to finish a highly respectable fourth after finding her best stride late. She drops into the maiden ranks today, switches to top rider Juan Hernandez, and should be a short price to graduate. Dash Away was scratched out of a maiden turf sprint yesterday for this longer affair and should be a live item at 8-1 on the morning line. She’s a lengthy, good-sized filly with plenty of scope, but despite previewing in :21 1/5 at the OBS June sale (where she brought $140,00 despite a complete lack of pedigree), she travels like a filly that will be most effective over a distance of ground. Her works at San Luis Rey Downs should have her plenty fit. Fourth Street, with the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern, lands the rail, removes blinkers, and exits a couple of pretty decent races. She’s almost certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics and deserves to be included on your ticket, at least as a backup for a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Nice Guy Clay; 3-Troubadour
Backups/savers: 5-Dutch Boy
Forecast: Nice Guy Clay surfaces in a restricted (nw-2) claimer for the first time and may have found his friends. He has speed figures that are better than par for this level and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Troubadour, freshened since July, is another that shows the maiden-to-maiden claiming angle plus the route-to-sprint maneuver, so the Richard Mandella-trained colt seems certain to produce a significant forward move. Top rider Juan Hernandez stays aboard, a positive sign. Dutch Bus, with competitive numbers but winless in seven career starts over the Santa Anita main track, probably should be relegated to a backup or saver role.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ami Please; 2-Thread Count
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This is the split of the today’s first race and on paper looks like the decidedly easier division. The 7/2 morning line favorite, Anacaro, has a career top speed figure from her first two outings that is 25 points lower than par for this level on the Beyer scale, so let’s look elsewhere. Ami Please didn’t leave cleanly sprinting on dirt in her debut and then failed to land a blow when sixth of 10 in a fairly hot race won by the promising Justique at Del Mar in late July. We’re expecting the daughter of Goldencents to improve considerably today, and from her favorable inside draw she could very well make the running and be tough to catch, so at 8-1 on the morning line the D. O’Neill trained filly offers a reasonable gamble in an open fray. The first timer Thread Count breezed well enough at the OBS April Sale (:10 1/5) when displaying good athleticism and smooth action before being purchased for $70,000, and as a daughter of Cairo Prince she shouldn’t dislike grass or a distance of ground. The barn rarely wins with debut runners, but this filly really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat, so at 6-1 you have to toss her in.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Midnight Memories; 5-Samurai Charm
Backups/Savers:
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Zenyatta Stakes-G2 for older fillies and mares came up unusually soft. Midnight Memories just won the Torrey Pine S.-G3 at Del Mar in gate-to-wire fashion and likely will try similar strategy in a race that projects to have modest early splits. She’s perfect in two starts over the Santa Anita main track with rising speed figures, so at 8/5 on the morning like she’s clearly the one to beat. Samurai Charm earned a career top number – one that makes her a strong threat – when second in the restricted Tranquility Lake Stakes at Del Mar last month. She make try to clear the field, as her best races have come as the controlling speed, and it will be interesting to see if she can outrun the favorite into the clubhouse turn or if not settle into a stalking position and then try to win the race from there. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play but not with a great deal of confidence in a race that probably should be treated with caution.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Speed Boat Beach
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Speed Boat Beach broke the Del Mar track record for five and one-half furlongs in his debut last month, so if he can duplicate that performance on grass he should dominate this year’s edition of the Speakeasy Stakes, a five furlong turf sprint for juveniles. A :58 2/5 workout on the training track last week (see below) indicates he retains all of his speed and then some and the switch in surface shouldn’t be any issue.. At 4/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the Bob Baffert-trained speedster will be too short to play other than as a no value rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Speed Boat Beach (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.2h TT). Grade: A-
In company outside Reincarnate (same time) for B. Baffert and proved slightly best in the late stages without being asked for anywhere near his best, splits of :23.1 and :58.2, impressive as expected for track record setting juvenile. Should be odds-on in the Speakeasy Stakes.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Ce Ce
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Ce Ce performed below par when a dull fifth in late August at Saratoga in the Ballerina S.-G1, just as she the previous year when she wound up a modest third in that same race. Apparently, she doesn’t like the Spa’s surface, but she’ll have no such excuse in today’s Chillingworth Stakes over a Santa Anita main track, where she has compiled an admirable record of five wins from nine starts, including a five length blowout in last year’s renewal of this event. The older filly and mare sprint champion from last year may have lost a step (or not) but seems quite likely to return to winning form against her outclassed opposition. She is 3/5 on the morning line in a race that probably should be left alone.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Queen’s Code
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Queen’s Code is an eight-race maiden and probably not one to trust, but the five-year-old son of Desert Code appears to have landed his easier opportunity yet in this Hillside turf dash for older state-bred runners. He’s never run down the hill but shows a couple of strong runner-up races over the flat course that chart extremely well against this below par field. If it’s not him, it could be anybody, so let’s take a stand and single the Carla Gaines-trained gelding in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Queen’s Code (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B+
Was engaged by Gold For Kitten (4f, :47.1 TT) on the turn and finished down the lane with that one, mild coaxing only while coming the final quarter mile in a sharp :23 flat. Looks ready to graduate vs. state-bred older maidens.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Tizamagician; 3-Heywoods Beach; 4-Extra Hope
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’re going to spread this marathon while preferring Tizamagician on top due mainly to his previous success over the Santa Anita main track. The veteran son of Tiznow has finished first or second in seven of 11 career starts over the local surface, and while he prefers the front end the Richard Mandella-trained veteran can stalk and pounce if the pace flow dictates. Out of his element in the Del Mar Handicap-G2 on grass last time out, he catches favorable conditions today, so we’re expecting to see him back in the winner’s circle. Heywoods Beach ran past our top selection when they met in the 12-furlong main track Cougar II Stakes at Del Mar this past summer and it would be no great shock if he did so again, while Extra Hope just missed (by 31 lengths) when pitted against Flightline in the Pacific Classic-G1 last time out but against this group he should be competitive. He’s a three-time winner at Santa Anita and we’re anticipating that this marathon distance should be within his range.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Gillian Elizabeth; 11-Shes’a Perfectlady; 5-Ma France
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This downhill turf sprint for entry-level allowance fillies and mares offers several possibilities, so a spread strategy in rolling exotic play seems the way to go. Gillian Elizabeth crushed a starter’s allowance field over a mile at Del Mar last time out, and while this is a tougher crew her numbers are solid and she’s unbeaten in two starts over the local flat course. Her style suggests that the Hillside Course should be right up her alley. Shes’a Perfectlady has a good stalking style, a cozy outside box, and numbers that make her a major player. She looks like the most dangerous of the closing types. Ma France turns back in trip and won her U.S. debut over this tricky layout last spring. She’s a tad slow in the speed figure department but could easily improve enough to be a strong fit.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Big Mama Sue; 11-Barrister’s Ride; 7-Emerald Lake
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s a competitive middle distance turf event for fillies and mares that offers a chance for a nice payoff. Big Mama Sue is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and is likely to produce a forward move in her second start off a layoff. She closed well with the help of the race shape in a similar spot last month at Del Mar while earning a solid number that is par for this level. With any kind of forward move, she can be along in time while offering good value at or near her morning line of 6-1. Barrister’s Ride is drawn poorly outside but is better than her morning line of 10-1 and is another that offers a decent price chance. She’s been first or second in four of five career starts over the local lawn and her numbers are good enough to win. Emerald Lake is lightly raced and improving. She’s fresh from a clever score at Del Mar from state-bred rivals and though this open group clearly represents a class hike she appears to be a progressive sort offering value at 8-1 on the morning line.
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