June 18, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Buzz of New York; 2-Queen Ofthe Temple
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Santa Barbara Stakes winner Queen Ofthe Temple tries for a repeat in the listed Possibly Perfect Stakes over the same course and distance but picks up six pounds due to that victory, so a repeat won’t quite be a slam dunk. She usually hits the board and almost certainly will again in this five runner affair. Buzz of New York, fourth, beaten less than fourth lengths behind ‘Temple last time out, may be able to make up the difference, though she has to pick four pounds herself. The Irish-bred mare is reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez after getting a less than ideal trip in the Santa Barbara, and it would hardly be surprising to see her turn the tables. We’ll give ‘Buzz a very slight edge on top, but both should be included in rolling exotic play and in a race that won’t offer much wagering value.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Muth
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Muth brought $2 million in the OBS March Sale, where he breezed a furlong in a sales-topping 9 3/5 seconds without being asked for his best and looking very much like a super star in the making. He debuts from a cozy outside post in the six runner affair, and while he’s probably not even remotely cranked up, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Good Magic should beat this field without taking a deep breath. At 4/5 ln the morning line but certain to leave lower than that, he’s a no value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Kitty Kitana
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: On pure form Kitty Kitana can beat this second level allowance field but she’s never been trustworthy, having failed as the favorite in four of her last five starts. There should be more than ample early pace to compliment her late running style, so if English-bred filly fires her best shot she should be able to tag the leaders close home. There are positives and negatives associated with the other seven starters, so in a race that we’re not planning to get involved in, we’ll make the Phil D’Amato-trained import a rolling exotic single. A better approach might be to simply it out and seek better opportunities.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Bella Renella
Backups/Savers: 1-Kiss My Kat.
Forecast: Bella Renella is nicely drawn outside in this starter optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares and should be capable of repeating her recent dominating score that came at the expense of softer $20,000 claiming rivals. The veteran mare is a six time winner over the Santa Anita main track and her recent speed figures indicate she should be more than capable of adding to that total today. Kiss My Kat represents inside speed, and with this return to the main track and the shortening to six furlongs the daughter of Curlin to Mischief should improve enough to pose a reasonable threat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main push going to Bella Renella.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Offlee Naughty
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Offlee Naughty has never been better for trainer Michael McCarthy and will be odds-on to extend his winning streak to four in this year’s renewal of the San Juan Capistrano S.-G3 for older marathoners. Much the best in the recent San Luis Rey Stakes-G3 against similar foes over the Hillside Course last month, the son of Flashback overcame traffic trouble on the far turn to regain his momentum and win going away with complete authority. Today’s longer trip should present no issue, whatsoever, so at 4/5 on the morning line he’s an obvious rolling exotic single in another race that is best left alone.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-My Man Bags
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: My Man Bags has proven to be a sensational $8,000 claim (last November at Del Mar) by trainer Mark Glatt and the veteran gelding appears well spotted to continue his winning ways in this allowance optional claimer over the extended sprint trip of six and one-half furlongs. Successful in two of his last three starts, including a starter optional claimer over the local main track 16 days ago, he returns off short rest while getting a break in the weights under bug boy Aguilar, who rode him to victory in a fast race in March. Effective on the lead or from a stalking position, the son of Daredevil most likely will do his best running behind what should be fairly hot fractions and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Squared Shady; 2-Paleo’s Princess.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the seventh race, an allowance optional claiming turf sprint over the flat course for first-level allowance fillies and mares. Squared Shady won a similar affair in an extended grass dash in late April with a career top speed figure and tackles basically the same gang today while being entered for the $40,000 tag. First or second in four of nine career starts over the local turf strip, the daughter of Square Eddie has good early speed but can stalk and pounce if the race flow dictates, so Kent Desormeaux, who got to know her in her recent victory, can assess the situation and choose his strategy. Paleo’s Princess is a tad shy in the speed figurer department but she’s a trier with two wins over this turf course and figures to be doing her best work late. Toss her in on your ticket.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Elwood Blues; 5-Sir Atticus; 10-Fifth Street
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This is a deep and contentious maiden special weight sprint for older horses, and it should take a pretty decent colt to win it. Elwood Blues finished a promising second in a hot race in his debut last fall but then was turned out. He finally makes it back for trainer Bob Baffert with a work tab should have him tight enough, and if the son of Justify returns as well as he left he’ll be hard to deny. The first time Lasix user lands top jockey Juan Hernandez, and after finishing second to stable mate Arabian Lion in his debut at Del Mar it’s not likely he’ll have any such competition to worry about today. Sir Atticus buck-jumped soon after the start, fell back, lost all chance, but then picked it up late to finish well when fourth in a much better than looked debut last month. The 4-year-old colt seems certain to improve with experience, and if he puts his head down and travels straight and true the son of Gormley could make a serious run for it. Fifth Street, a first timer and a stablemate of our top pick in the Baffert barn, breezed with ‘Blues in a gate drill June 1 and more than held his own despite a slow start. If the son of Quality Road breaks with his field he should have enough speed to be within range and then remain a factor throughout. At 4-1 on the morning line, he looks very much like a live item.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Indessia; 5-Organic; 8-Magic Game
Backups/savers: 11-Exclusively Noble.
Forecast: Indessia has an improving pattern and the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle, so let’s put the Smiling Tiger filly on top in this extended turf dash for state-bred fillies and mares. She’ll likely to get outrun early but in a field with suspect early speed she should have every chance from the quarter pole home to make a favorable impression. Organic is the quickest of the quick, and in her first try on grass the Neil Drysdale-trained filly may stick much better than she has so far in four races on the main track. She removes blinkers, switches to Umberto Rispoli, and will take them as far as she can. Major Game finished steadily to be second against a similar group last time out and rates a look once again, though as a 10-race maiden she appears to have gotten into the habit of losing. Exclusively Noble is bred for grass (Noble Mission) and has trained well enough for a clever outfit to include somewhere on your ticket. The outside draw does her no favors, but if she can run at all she should be able to act in this league.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Flying Drummer
Backups/savers: 8-Manitowish.
Forecast: Flying Drummer was extremely well-meant in his first start in 17 months but was worn down late and had to settle for second money in a similar main track miler for first level allowance older horses in an effort that produced a career top speed figure. Anything close to that performance today should be more than good enough to get the Bob Baffert-trained son of Gun Runner into the winner’s circle. Most effective on the front end, the lightly raced 4-year-old likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics and if not pressured early should be able to dominate throughout. He is listed at 5/2 on the morning line and at anything close to that price will offer excellent value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Manitowish has competitive numbers and is worth including as a saver. In the frame in his last 12 starts, this remarkably consistent and genuine gelding projects to inherit a stalking position just off ‘Drummer and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Spicybug; 6-Procrastination; 4-Itzel
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Spicybug improved a ton in her fifth career start when graduating with a huge, much improved speed figure over the local lawn in a fast, productive maiden affair last month. If she can duplicate that performance in this first level allowance affair the daughter of Speightstown can make it two straight. She has a good stalking style that should produce a trouble-free trip, so we’ll put her on top while also including Procrastination, fourth in the Senorita Stakes-G3 after cutting out the fractions and today returning to the allowance ranks while shortening to a sprint. The daughter of Not This Time projects to be a major pace player throughout. You have to toss in Itzel as well. The Peter Miller-trained filly tackled the boys in a tough grass dash last month and did extremely well to wind up second after leading the way into the lane. It was a career top performance on speed figures, one that if repeated today makes her a major threat and a “must use.”
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RACE 12: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Mystifcation; 10-Quality Wins
Backups/savers: 5-Hula Candy.
Forecast: Mystification shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for trainer Doug O’Neill and also is removing blinkers (love both of those angles), so we’re expecting that he will be ready to continue his improving pattern in this one mile grass affair for older maidens. Likely the controlling speed if his connections choose that strategy, the son of Good Magic certainly has the pedigree to enjoy the extra ground, and with rising numbers and a recent bullet workout, this promising sophomore colt looks ready for a major effort. Quality Wins, a solid third when favored over this course and distance in mid-March, has room for further improvement, and with blinkers going on for the first time the Mark Glatt-trained gelding is likely to display improved early speed. Like our top pick, his speed figures are steadily rising with experience. Hula Candy walked out of the gate in his debut and fell far back, but then he closed a gap to be a very respectable fifth in a solid sprint effort last month. He’s a 5-year-old trying to play catch up, but he has ability and could produce a significant forward move today with added distance and a reasonably decent gate break.
