June 11, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Seismic Spirit; 7-Doncic
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Seismic Spirit is one of a several that could win this starter allowance extended turf sprint over the flat course, and in a race that projects to have soft early fractions a forwardly placed trip is recommended. The Irish-bred gelding was given a bit too much to do when fourth beaten less than a length in a similar affair last month, but a repeat of his nice win two races back could be good enough. Doncic is winless in six starts on grass, though he has finished second three times, so we can’t say he doesn’t like it. The son of Cairo Prince earned a career top speed figure when narrowly missing over the local lawn two races back but then never really picked up is feet when a distant third at odds-on in an off-the-grass dash last time out. We’ll give him a chance to bounce back today. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Seismic Spirit.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Last Call London
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Last Call London displayed improvement in his second career start when finishing a distant but decent second in fast, highly rated juvenile dash won by the promising Refocus. This field doesn’t appear to contain anything even remotely as good as that colt, so we’re expecting the son of Stay Thirsty to earn his diploma, though at 4/5 on the morning line there’s no real value to be found. In a race that probably should otherwise be left alone, we’ll make him a logical but short priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Casia; 6-Midnight Silence
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Casia was a voided claim when third in a bottom rung maiden $20,000 claiming sprint last month so she returns to the same barn, but this time stretches out to a mile. The Vladimir Cerin-trained filly surely will be the controlling speed if the connections employ that strategy, and after a solid five furlong drill in 1:00 1/5 (third fastest of 23) the daughter of Acclamation appears fit, healthy, and capable of wiring the field. Ramon Vasquez, one of the “go to” riders for the Vladimir Cerin stable, picks up the mount. Midnight Silence, second in her last pair and with clear edge in the speed figure department, is the likely choice and one to beat. She projects to inherit a comfortable pace stalking position and then have every chance from there. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the preference on top to the front running Casia.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Trumped; 7-Forgiving Spirit
Backups/Savers: 3-Goldensunrise
Forecast: Trumped lost a toughie in his turf debut when narrowly missing in a similar spot last month while earning a career top speed figure. First or second in five of six lifetime starts, the lightly raced son of Midshipman likely has further improvement in him, so let’s give him a slight edge on top while projecting the Vann Belvoir-trained gelding to be forwardly placed throughout. Forgiving Spirit has the route to sprint angle that we like and is a four time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. The Peter Miller-trained son of Shaman Ghost should settle in the second flight and then kick home when called upon. Goldensunrise is an intriguing Bay Area shipper fresh from a quick maiden win over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields. These are considerably tougher, but the son of Goldecencents may shake loose early and take this group a long way. Toss him in as a backup.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:12 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Mr. Chivas
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Mr. Chivas was nosed out in a similar juvenile dash last month when winding up more than four lengths clear of the others. Unless there is a better than par newcomer in the field (doesn’t look like it), the son of Stay Thirsty looks set to graduate, but at a very short price. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Escape Artist; 6-Ransomware
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Escape Artist is progressing nicely with experience, and after finishing a highly respectable third in the Singletary Stakes when beaten less than a length last month the son of Good Magic tackles easier foes in this entry level allowance grass miler. He’s capable of running well on the front or from a second flight, stalking position, so hot riding Kent Desormeaux can assess the early pace flow and then choose the proper strategy. Ransomware, a strong third in the Desert Code Stakes down the hill in his first outing since December, stretches out to his preferred distance and should be capable of settling into a second flight early position and then quickening when give his cue. The first time Lasix user retains regular pilot Ramon Vasquez and should be doing his best work close home. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics, with top preference to Escape Artist.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Essential Business; 3-Tenacious Lady
Backups/savers: 5-Fried Asparagus
Forecast: Essential Business shows up in a seller in her first outing since October and seems properly spotted in this abbreviated sprint for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming fillies and mares. The Peter Miller-trained daughter of Practical Joke lacks gate quickness but can turn it on late, and with this return to dirt and with a series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have her fit, she may be capable of tagging the speed in the final stages. Tenacious Lady and Fried Asparagus, two-three finishers in a similar affair last month, both have reasonable looks right back. ‘Lady has steadily improving speed figures but like our top pick lacks tactical speed, while ‘Asparagus had a quick recent workout (:46 2/5, fastest of 33) that catches the eye and may be set to produce a forward move. Challenging race, tread lightly.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Worcester; 4-Mi Hermano Ramon
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Worcester is still a maiden after five starts, most recently going down at 30 cents on the dollar in a main track miler to the well regarded first-timer Smart Mo. Yet, the son of Empire Maker remains extremely fast on speed figures and on pure form looks good enough to win this year’s edition of the Cinema Stakes over 10 furlongs on grass. This will be his first start on turf, and with Giant’s Causeway on the bottom side of his pedigree he should at least handle, maybe even move up on it. Certainly the distance should be within his range, so with leading rider Juan Hernandez staying aboard let’s put him on top. Mi Hermano Ramon, fresh from a clever score in the Singletary Stakes at nine furlongs, won’t be bothered by the step up in trip and at 2-1 on the morning line is the deserved favorite and one to beat. These are the two we’ll be using in our various rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Missed the Cut
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The highly regarded and extremely talented Missed the Cut has looked quite good in morning preps leading up to his U.S. debut, appearing comfortable training over the Santa Anita conventional dirt track that he’s bred to thoroughly enjoy. The son of Quality Road has done all of his previous racing on either grass or synthetic in France, Ireland, and most recently in Saudi Arabia, and based on his form over those surfaces and the Timeform Ratings that he was assigned, the John Sadler-trained colt should absolute fit in this open allowance mile affair. Two races back in this listed Churchill Stakes at Lingfield he defeated Algiers, who subsequently finished second in the Dubai World Cup. Making his first start with Lasix and with top rider Juan Hernandez taking the call, he’ll offer excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at or near his morning line of 3-1.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:44 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Ridin’thestormout; 5-Make It Snow.
Backups/savers: 7-Sultry Kitten.
Forecast: Here’s a challenging turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares that offers several unknowns, question marks, and other possibilities. Ridin’thestormout flashed good speed before being tagged late in her debut last summer at Del Mar before being stopped on. She returns for trainer John Sadler with a work tab that should have her plenty fit, and with top jockey Juan Hernandez staying board in a race that projects to have a soft opening quarter this daughter of Candy Ride appears well spotted to fire a big shot off the bench. Make It Snow failed to duplicate her promising debut run when finishing a distant third behind subsequent Summertime Oaks-G2 in an off-the-turf mile maiden affair in mid-March, but she’s back sprinting, returns to grass, and therefore must be given a chance to repeat her first start, a closing third place effort that earned a good number. Sultry Kitten is a debuting daughter of American Pharoah from the Phil D’Amato stable with a couple of intriguing workouts on her resume. The barn has low stats with first timers but at 10-1 on the morning line she’s probably worth including on your ticket somewhere.
